- Brent jumped nearly 2% and WTI rose 1.6% after U.S. strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island raised fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Institutional oil bets have surged, with hedge fund Brent long positions reaching their highest since February 2020.
- Fuel costs are already rising, with GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan saying Americans are spending $300 million more on gasoline than a month ago.
Oil stocks jumped in overnight trading on Sunday as crude climbed above $100 a barrel yet again, hedge funds piled into bullish oil bets, and analysts warned that Americans are already spending $300 million more on gasoline than a month ago.
Shares of Indonesia Energy (INDO) rose about 2%, Battalion Oil (BATL) climbed roughly 6%, while Trio Petroleum (TPET) and EON Resources (EONR) each gained around 3% in overnight trading. Meanwhile, the United States Oil Fund (USO) rose slightly.
Brent, WTI Rise On Iran Tensions
Oil prices jumped as escalating tensions in the Middle East raised fears of further supply disruptions. Brent crude futures jumped nearly 2% to $105.15 a barrel after settling $2.68 higher on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.6% to $100.32 a barrel after gaining nearly $3 in the previous session.
The rally comes after U.S. strikes late last week on Iran’s key export hub at Kharg Island heightened fears of further supply disruptions heading into Monday’s trading, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that carries about 20% of the world’s oil.
Hedge Funds Ramp Up Bullish Oil Bets
Institutional positioning in crude has surged. The Kobeissi Letter said on X that hedge fund long positions in Brent crude futures jumped 65,438 contracts to 351,032 in the week ending March 10, the highest level since February 2020.
The Kobeissi Letter said long positioning has surged 966% since December, the largest increase in at least six years. Bullish bets on WTI crude have also climbed to an eight-month high, based on data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Commodity trading advisors, or algorithm-driven funds, are now 100% long in both WTI and Brent, the Kobeissi Letter said. “This is the first time this has occurred in U.S. crude oil since September 2021, when the position lasted 26 trading sessions.”
Goldman Sachs Flags Drop In Hormuz Oil Flows
Goldman Sachs said oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have plunged as the conflict disrupts tanker traffic. The bank estimates flows have fallen to about 0.5 million barrels per day, down from roughly 19.5 million barrels per day normally moving through the waterway, according to an Investing.com report.
After accounting for pipeline redirection, Goldman Sachs estimates that about 17.2 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf oil flows are currently disrupted. The bank also outlined several potential paths that could increase flows through the strait, including Iran allowing safe passage for certain shipments, a broader de-escalation of the conflict, or stronger naval protection for tankers.
However, Goldman Sachs warned that risks to its base-case assumption of a gradual 30-day recovery beginning March 21 are skewed toward delays.
Fuel Spending Surges Amid Oil Rally
Patrick De Haan, petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, said on X that the oil rally is already pushing up fuel costs. “Americans today will spend $300 million more on gasoline than they did 30 days ago.”
The national average gasoline price stands at $3.68 per gallon, higher than about 78% of days between January 2021 and January 2025, according to De Haan. GasBuddy data also show 45 of 50 U.S. states have seen diesel prices climb by more than $1 per gallon in the past four weeks.
De Haan noted that prices were sagging slightly on Sunday due to normal price cycles, which is often why Sundays are a better time to fill up. However, he warned that “price cycling states have [a] high chance of seeing hikes tomorrow.”
De Haan said the third week of the conflict could deliver a $5 national average for diesel, while gasoline prices will move closer to $4 per gallon.
How Did Stocktwits Users React?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for USO and EONR was ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘extremely high’ message volume. Sentiment for INDO was ‘bullish’ with ‘normal’ message volume, while BATL and TPET saw ‘neutral’ sentiment, with message volume ‘low’ for BATL and ‘high’ for TPET.
So far this year, BATL has surged over 1,500%, EONR has climbed nearly 300%, TPET is up 91%, USO has gained 73%, and INDO has risen 57%.
For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.