SPCX Stock Is Down Nearly 40% From Its Peak — Why UBS Sees 54% Upside Ahead Of SpaceX’s Starship Flight

• Flight 13 will test key technologies, including Starlink V3 deployment, engine relight reliability and heat shield performance.
• UBS maintained a ‘Buy’ rating and pointed to significant upside from current levels.
• Despite trading well below its post-IPO peak, Wall Street sentiment remains bullish, with most analysts recommending the stock.

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) have retreated nearly 40% from the record high they reached in June, but UBS believes the recent pullback presents a buying opportunity ahead of the company’s 13th Starship launch on Thursday, July 16. The brokerage said a successful mission could validate several key technologies and act as a positive catalyst for the stock.

Investors, however, remained cautious on Wednesday. SPCX shares extended their losing streak to a fourth consecutive session, slipping below their $135 initial public offering price for the first time. At the time of writing on Wednesday afternoon, the SPCX stock was down around 2% at $133.43.

UBS Says Flight 13 Could Be A Key Catalyst

UBS maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on SpaceX with a $210 price target, implying an upside of over 54% from the stock’s Tuesday closing price of $136.08. The stock ended Tuesday down 39.69% from its record high of $225.64, which it hit on June 16.

“SpaceX has made multiple hardware and software upgrades since the last flight,” UBS wrote in a note on Wednesday, according to a report in CNBC. The brokerage added, “This flight would demonstrate multiple new milestones and in our view be a positive for the stock.”

Starship Mission To Test Critical Capabilities

Thursday’s Starship Flight 13 will serve as a key test of technologies that SpaceX plans to rely on as it scales up its launch operations. UBS said the mission is designed to evaluate booster and in-space Raptor engine relights, deploy Starlink V3 satellites and further advance the vehicle's heat shield system. A successful flight would also reinforce UBS’ projections for four commercial launches in 2026 and 1,588 flights by 2031.

“Flight 13 is important because it is intended to validate some of the key capabilities required for this launch ramp, including booster engine relight reliability, in-space Raptor relight, Starlink V3 satellite deployment, and continued heat shield development,” UBS said.

SPCX Stock: What Stocktwits Retail Sentiment Says

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around SPCX was ‘bearish,’ while message volume was ‘extremely low’ at the time of writing.

UBS' bullish stance is in line with broader Wall Street sentiment. According to data from Koyfin, 27 of the 32 analysts covering SPCX rate it ‘Buy’ or ‘Strong Buy,’ while four rate it ‘Hold’ and one rates it ‘Sell.’ The 12-month average target on the stock is $240, representing a potential upside of around 76% from Tuesday’s close.

The SPCX stock has fallen 11.63% year-to-date. By comparison, the Procure Space ETF (UFO) has gained nearly 17% over the same period, while the Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA) has edged up 0.8%. 

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