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Bitcoin is the world's first decentralized cryptocurrency, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It enables peer-to-peer electronic cash transactions without intermediaries like banks or governments, operating on a blockchain secured by Proof of Work mining and the SHA-256 cryptographic algorithm.   With a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins and programmatic halvings every four years that reduce miner rewards, Bitcoin is designed as a deflationary digital asset often called "digital gold." Its value stems from solving the double-spending problem without trusted intermediaries, creating the first truly scarce digital asset with censorship resistance and permissionless access that no government, corporation, or individual can control.  Bitcoin operates as a decentralized peer-to-peer network where transactions are recorded on a public ledger called the blockchain, distributed across thousands of computers globally. Transactions are grouped into blocks added approximately every 10 minutes through mining, where specialized computers compete to solve complex mathematical puzzles.   Bitcoin has achieved mainstream adoption through multiple vectors. The January 2024 SEC approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs opened Bitcoin investment to traditional finance participants, and corporations like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) are using Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset to protect against currency debasement, offering MSTR holders amplified exposure to Bitcoin.   The Bitcoin ecosystem continues to evolve with innovations like Ordinals, which emerged in January 2023 to enable NFT-like functionality directly on Bitcoin, and BRC-20 tokens, an experimental standard for creating fungible tokens using Ordinal inscriptions. BTCFi (Bitcoin Finance) represents emerging financial applications extending beyond Bitcoin's traditional role, with protocols like Babylon allowing Bitcoin holders to stake BTC to secure Proof of Stake chains.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is facing intense volatility as the market digests the fallout of a massive sell-off by a major miner alongside escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Community sentiment is deeply fractured, with vocal bulls urging accumulation as a long-term hedge while vocal bears point to potential structural weaknesses and the threat of further liquidations as the asset consolidates.

ADMA Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company, which is engaged in manufacturing, marketing, and developing specialty plasma-derived biologics. The firm operates through the following business segments: ADMA BioManufacturing and Plasma Collection Center. The ADMA BioManufacturing segment consists of immune globulin manufacturing and development operations. The Plasma Collection Center consists of source plasma collection facilities. The company was founded by Adam S. Grossman and Jerrold B. Grossman on June 24, 2004 and is headquartered in Ramsey, NJ.

Adma Biologics Inc

ADMA Biologics is currently trending as investors debate the credibility of a recent short-seller report alleging "channel stuffing" and fraudulent accounting practices. While the company has officially dismissed the claims as inaccurate and misleading, the stock remains volatile as the community actively discusses the need for a more detailed rebuttal and the impact of the allegations on management's long-term growth and capital return initiatives.

Unity Software, Inc. engages in the developing video gaming software. It also provides software solutions to create, run and monetize interactive, real-time two-dimensional and three-dimensional content for mobile phones, tablets, consoles, and augmented and virtual reality devices. Its platform is used by developers, artists, and designers to build content for gaming, film, retail, automotive, architecture, engineering, and construction industries. The company was founded by Joachim Ante and David Helgason in 2004 and is headquartered in San Francisco, CA.

Unity Software Inc

Unity Software is under intense downward pressure following market-wide apprehension toward software-as-a-service firms, even as the company moves to streamline operations by divesting its China business and focusing on AI-driven advertising tools. The community remains deeply polarized, with some investors aggressively accumulating shares at multi-year lows in anticipation of a rebound driven by upcoming product demonstrations, while others are offloading positions due to concerns over management's guidance and the competitive threat posed by emerging AI models.

Alphabet, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in software, health care, transportation, and other technologies. It operates through the following segments: Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets. The Google Services segment includes products and services, such as ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. The Google Cloud segment refers to infrastructure and platform services, collaboration tools, and other services for enterprise customers. The Other Bets segment relates to the sale of healthcare-related services and internet services. The company was founded by Lawrence E. Page and Sergey Mikhaylovich Brin on October 2, 2015 and is headquartered in Mountain View, CA.

Alphabet Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class C

Alphabet is currently at a critical inflection point as investors weigh its dominant AI and cloud fundamentals against mounting legal pressures and broader macroeconomic volatility. Market sentiment remains split, with traders debating whether current price levels represent a generational buying opportunity or a deeper repricing of risk as the company faces intensifying regulatory and litigation headwinds.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. is a technology company focused on acquiring, holding, and actively managing ETH as its primary treasury reserve asset. It prioritizes digital ecosystem services, such as consultancy and advisory works. The company was founded on August 16, 1995 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, NV.

BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc

Bitmine Immersion Technologies Inc

Bitmine Immersion Technologies is trending as investors monitor the launch of its MAVAN Ethereum staking platform and the company's aggressive strategy to accumulate a significant portion of the total Ethereum supply. The community is actively debating the stock's potential for a major price re-rate alongside its strategic investments in AI-focused companies like Eightco, while navigating ongoing discussions regarding dilution risks and broader crypto sector volatility.

Microsoft Corp. engages in the development and support of software, services, devices, and solutions. It operates through the following segments: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment is composed of products and services relating to productivity, communication, and information services such as Office Commercial, Office Consumer, LinkedIn, and Dynamics business solutions. The Intelligent Cloud segment consists of public, private, and hybrid server products and cloud services for businesses and developers, as well as enterprise and partner services. The More Personal Computing segment refers to products and services including Windows operating system, Windows cloud services, Surface, HoloLens, personal computer accessories, Xbox hardware, Xbox Cloud Gaming, Microsoft News, and Microsoft Edge. The company was founded by Paul Gardner Allen and William Henry Gates, III in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, WA.

Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft Corp

Microsoft is trending as investors grapple with a significant and prolonged sell-off that has pushed the stock to multi-year lows, fueling intense community debate over whether this represents a generational buying opportunity or a deeper fundamental break. Traders are actively discussing the stock's lack of relief bounces, its recent hiring pauses in key segments, and the broader fear that its massive AI capital expenditures are not yet yielding the expected market returns.

Dogecoin is an open-source digital currency based on the "Doge" meme that functions as a peer-to-peer medium for fast payments and digital tipping. Unlike projects backed by corporate entities, its value is driven by a global community, and the project is managed by a decentralized group of volunteers and the non-profit Dogecoin Foundation rather than a formal company.  Originally created in 2013 by software engineers Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer as a market parody, the project held no public sale or venture capital rounds. The network operates as a fork of LuckyCoin, which itself was a fork of Litecoin, using a proof of work consensus mechanism. It employs the Scrypt algorithm to ensure the mining process remains fast and efficient, with new blocks processed every 60 seconds. A unique technical feature is its use of merged mining, allowing miners to secure Dogecoin simultaneously with other Scrypt-based networks like Litecoin.  To keep transaction fees low and the network running indefinitely, Dogecoin features an uncapped supply where new coins are added forever. In a major regulatory milestone in March 2026, a joint SEC and CFTC framework officially classified Dogecoin as a digital commodity, placing it in the same asset category as gold or oil.

Dogecoin

Dogecoin is currently at the center of a intense debate between retail bulls who are betting on future payment integration and long-term utility, and vocal skeptics who dismiss the asset as a stagnant pump-and-dump scheme. Community discussion is heavily split, with many traders fixating on technical chart patterns and potential price swings while waiting for broader institutional catalysts to trigger a significant move.

Alphabet Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Alphabet Inc Class A

Alphabet is facing a mix of technical volatility and legal challenges following a jury verdict that found the company negligent for addictive design harms, though market analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook due to the company's strong ad revenue and AI infrastructure developments. Community discourse is currently split between traders focused on the stock's recent technical weakness and supporters who view the dip as a prime opportunity to accumulate shares in a long-term AI leader.

Pelican Acquisition Corp. is a blank check company formed for the purpose of effecting a merger, capital stock exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, reorganization, or similar business combination with one or more businesses. The company was founded on July 23, 2024 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

Greenland Energy Co.

Greenland Energy is capturing investor attention following its recent Nasdaq debut through a business combination, sparking intense community debate over its potential to unlock vast oil resources in the Jameson Land Basin. While some supporters highlight the company's exclusive drilling rights and strategic partnerships as a generational opportunity, others remain skeptical about the project's long-term viability and regulatory hurdles.

Meta Platforms, Inc. engages in the development of social media applications. It builds technology that helps people connect and share, find communities, and grow businesses. It operates through the Family of Apps (FoA) and Reality Labs (RL) segments. The FoA segment consists of Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp, and other services. The RL segment includes augmented, mixed and virtual reality related consumer hardware, software, and content. The company was founded by Mark Elliot Zuckerberg, Dustin Moskovitz, Chris R. Hughes, Andrew McCollum, and Eduardo P. Saverin on February 4, 2004, and is headquartered in Menlo Park, CA.

Meta Platforms Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Meta Platforms Inc

Meta Platforms is facing a significant sell-off as investors react to two recent court rulings that found the company liable for addictive design practices, fueling concerns about a growing pipeline of litigation and potential changes to its core operating model. While bearish traders are calling for much lower price targets and citing systemic risks, long-term investors are debating whether the volatility is an overreaction driven by institutional fear-mongering or a structural shift that warrants a more cautious approach.

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<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>The report said lawmakers believe sports betting on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket resembles gambling and bypasses state-level consumer protection.&nbsp;</li><li>Crypto exchanges, including Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken, have recently launched or announced plans to enter prediction markets.</li><li>Robinhood has already rolled out sports-related contracts through its partnership with Kalshi.</li></ul>A bipartisan pair of U.S. senators has reportedly introduced legislation targeting prediction markets, just as crypto exchanges including Coinbase (COIN), Gemini (GEMI), Kraken, and others are expanding into the fast-growing sector.According to a&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/lawmakers-to-introduce-bipartisan-bill-banning-sports-bets-on-prediction-markets-17d2e272">report</a> by The Wall Street Journal, the bill introduced on Monday would prohibit Commodity Futures Trading&nbsp;Commission (CFTC)-regulated entities like Kalshi and Polymarket from listing contracts tied to sporting events. It said that the proposal marks the first bipartisan Senate effort to directly address prediction markets.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Senate Targets Sports Contracts On Prediction Platforms</h2>The report said lawmakers backing the bill argue that sports-related contracts on federally regulated platforms resemble traditional betting products while operating outside state-level gambling frameworks.“The CFTC is greenlighting these markets and even promoting their growth,” Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) stated. “It’s time for Congress to step in and eliminate this backdoor, which violates state consumer protections, intrudes upon tribal sovereignty, and offers no public revenue.”The bill also extended beyond sports, seeking to prohibit “casino-style games” such as slot machines, blackjack, video poker, and bingo from being offered through these platforms, the report said.Sen. John Curtis (R-UT), who co-sponsored the bill, framed the issue around consumer exposure. “Too many young people in Utah are getting exposed to addictive sports betting and casino-style gaming contracts that belong under state control, not under federal regulators,” he said.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Crypto Exchanges Accelerate Push Into Prediction Markets</h2>Both Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) have prediction markets and allow for sports betting on their platforms via partnerships with Kalshi. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has been pushing for Coinbase to become an “everything exchange” and recently&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/coinbase-reportedly-plans-prediction-markets-launch-with-kalshi/cLICp6DRE89">announced</a> USDC-funded trade on prediction markets in partnership with Kalshi. Meanwhile, Robinhood (HOOD) partnered with Kalshi to&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/robinhood-stock-surges-after-launch-of-prediction-markets-hu/ch7hgMzRbcd">launch</a> its prediction markets hub in March 2025 and introduced sports contracts in August 2025.The new legislation could put a dent in their plans to expand revenue streams beyond cryptocurrency trading, and stock trading, in Robinhood’s case. Coinbase and Robinhood are the only two listed companies operating prediction markets in partnership with Kalshi, but others have also expanded into the space.&nbsp;Gemini (GEMI), backed by the Winklevoss twins,&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/gemini-beats-coinbase-to-market-as-prediction-markets/cLe7wveREoy">introduced</a> ‘Gemini Predictions’ in December 2025 for betting on sports events. Kraken, widely anticipated to go public this year, said it would launch prediction markets on its platform in 2026.&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/COIN">COIN’s stock</a> was down 2.75% in pre-market trade amid broader weakness across the stock and cryptocurrency markets after fresh threats from President Donald Trump against Iran kept oil prices above the $100 mark. Meanwhile,&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/GEMI">GEMI’s stock</a> fell 3.35%, and&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/HOOD/">HOOD’s stock</a> was down 2.14% in early morning trade on Monday.On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around COIN and HOOD remained in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day, while sentiment around GEMI improved to ‘neutral’ from the ‘bearish’ zone.&nbsp;Read also:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/coinbase-launches-perpetual-futures-amid-hyperliquid-s-trading-boom/cZ3XY6pRILg">Coinbase Launches Perpetual Futures Amid Hyperliquid’s Trading Boom – MAG 7, SPY, QQQ In Lineup</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

In this photo illustration, a person holds a smartphone displaying the Kalshi app icon, with the Kalshi branding visible in the background

Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken Prediction Market Expansion Under Threat After Senate Reportedly Moves To Restrict Sector

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, the legislation would prohibit sports-related contracts on CFTC-regulated platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Cryptocurrency

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, the legislation would prohibit sports-related contracts on CFTC-regulated platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.


<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Senator Jeff Merkley stated that he first became concerned about prediction markets after a bettor on Polymarket won more than $400,000 by accurately predicting that the U.S. would remove Maduro.</li><li>He added that it was “extraordinarily likely” that somebody in the group of people who knew about the U.S. action leaked the information to a bettor on the prediction platform.</li><li>A New York Times analysis found more than 150 Polymarket accounts placed bets of over $1,000 predicting last Saturday’s U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran a day early.</li></ul>Democratic lawmakers&nbsp;led by Senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar are reportedly set to introduce a bill banning the President, Vice President, and members of Congress from placing bets on prediction markets.According to a CNBC&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/prediction-markets-merkley-ban-iran.html">report</a>, the bill also seeks to ban senior executive branch officials from prediction markets, with fines starting at $10,000 for those found in violation of the rules.The bill comes at a time when major international events, such as the ouster of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the Iran war, have seen bets placed on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.“Members receive all sorts of tips and advice. The actual demonstration of insider trading is too difficult to be sufficient to address the problem. The problem becomes both real corruption … and the appearance of corruption and conflict of interest,” Merkley said during the interview.<h2 class="st-heading-2">The Venezuela Bet That Made Merkley Suspicious</h2>Merkley stated that he first became concerned about prediction markets after a bettor on Polymarket won more than $400,000 by accurately predicting that the U.S. would remove Maduro.“That was a case where you had the secretary of state saying ‘we didn’t notify Congress the way we’re supposed to under the law because we were too concerned about a leak,’” Merkley said during the interview.He added that it was “extraordinarily likely” that somebody in the group of people who knew about the U.S. action leaked the information to a bettor on the prediction platform.“This legislation strengthens the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s ability to go after bad actors and provides rules of the road to prevent those with confidential government or policy information from exploiting their access for financial gain,” Sen. Klobuchar said in a statement to CNBC.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Soaring Popularity Of Prediction Markets</h2>According to an&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/upshot/prediction-markets-iran-strikes.html">analysis</a> by The New York Times, a day before the joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran Saturday last week, more than 150 accounts placed bets of at least $1,000 on Polymarket, accurately predicting attacks on the Middle Eastern country.The analysis also showed that at least 16 accounts profited by more than $100,000 each, while at least 109 accounts made more than $10,000.One user reportedly took home nearly half a million dollars after placing bets worth over $60,000.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Israeli Army Reservists Arrested Over Suspicion Of Using Classified Information</h2>Earlier in February, the Israeli authorities arrested several army reservists and a civilian over suspicion of using classified information to place bets on an online prediction platform.Israeli authorities said that the charges came after an investigation into suspected gambling “based on classified information to which the reservists were exposed by virtue of their role in the army,” according to a&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/12/world/middleeast/israel-army-reservists-classified-information-bets.html">report</a> by The New York Times.Meanwhile, U.S. equities declined in Thursday’s pre-market trade. At the time of writing, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, was down 0.43%; the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/QQQ">Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</a> (QQQ) fell 0.56%; and the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) declined 0.72%. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits regarding the S&amp;P 500 ETF was in the ‘neutral’ territory.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/berkshire-hathaway-ceo-greg-abel-purchases-15-million-stock/cZdQtjDRI34">Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel Loads Up On $15M In Stock, BRK Resumes Share Buybacks</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., speaks during the Senate Democrats' news conference in the U.S. Capitol

Democrat Lawmakers Move To Ban Government Officials From Prediction Markets After Iran, Maduro Bets: Report

The bill comes at a time when major international events, such as the ouster of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the Iran war, have drawn bets on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Equity

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Paramount’s new bid comes after Warner Bros. received a seven-day waiver from Netflix last week to re-engage with the David Ellison-led company.</li><li>WBD announced on Tuesday that Paramount had sent a revised bid, while its board of directors reaffirmed its support for the Netflix offer.</li><li>Subsequently, WBD stated that Paramount raised its takeover offer to $31 per share, up from $30.</li></ul>The ongoing battle between Paramount Skydance Corp. (PSKY) and Netflix Inc. (NFLX) for acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD) is intensifying, but bettors on prediction markets are clearly leaning toward one entertainment giant to win.The latest prediction market odds for the winner of the WBD acquisition saga follow Paramount's $ 31-per-share takeover offer, up from $30 per share.Paramount’s new bid comes after Warner Bros. received a seven-day waiver from Netflix last week to re-engage with the David Ellison-led company. WBD announced on Tuesday that Paramount had&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/wbd-confirms-receipt-of-paramounts-revised-bid-board-favors-netflix/cZRvyleR4CJ">sent a revised bid</a>, while its board of directors reaffirmed its support for the Netflix offer.<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/WBD">Warner Bros. Discovery shares</a> were up 0.5% in Thursday’s pre-market trade, while&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/WBD">Paramount Skydance shares</a> rose 1%. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around the WBD trended in the ‘bullish’ territory, while users felt ‘extremely bullish’ about PSKY.<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/NFLX">Netflix shares</a> were up 2% at the time of writing, with retail sentiment trending in the ‘bullish’ territory on Stocktwits.<h2 class="st-heading-2">What Are Prediction Markets Indicating?</h2>Popular prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show bettors are leaning toward Paramount as the winner in its battle with Netflix for WBD.At the time of writing, the odds of Paramount acquiring WBD before July 2027 stood at 56%, while only 36% believed Netflix could win.<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Kalshi_WBD_jpg_78228dbe59.webp" alt="Kalshi prediction market bets on Warner Bros acquisition" width="898" height="454"><figcaption>Kalshi prediction market bets on Warner Bros acquisition | Kalshi</figcaption></figure>Users on Polymarket were less optimistic about Paramount’s chances, with only 46% believing it would win before June 2027, while 37% of the bets were in favor of Netflix.<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Polymarket_WBD_jpg_dc5d29605c.webp" alt="Polymarket prediction market bets on Warner Bros acquisition" width="955" height="437"><figcaption>Polymarket prediction market bets on Warner Bros acquisition | Polymarket</figcaption></figure>The total bets on the two platforms stood at about $2.2 million at the time of writing.<h2 class="st-heading-2">WBD Says Paramount Offer ‘Reasonably Be Expected’ To Be Superior</h2>In an update on Tuesday, WBD announced that Paramount’s offer for the company could “reasonably be expected” to be superior to the one from Netflix.Paramount also reaffirmed that it will pay the $2.8 billion termination fee, which WBD would be required to pay to Netflix to terminate its existing merger agreement.Netflix’s offer assigns an enterprise value of $82.7 billion to WBD but excludes the spinoff company.<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/WBD">WBD stock</a> is up 0.3% year-to-date, while&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/PSKY">PSKY stock</a> is down 24%, and NFLX stock is down 12%.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/anthropic-claude-enterprise-ai-tools-software-cybersecurity-hr-investment-banking/cZRyaCIRIGk">Anthropic Expands Enterprise AI Arsenal With Autonomous Tools Ahead Of Widely Expected IPO</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

In this photo illustration a man holds a iPhone, that shows Netflix, Warner Bros and Paramount streaming apps on his phone screen

Who Will Acquire Warner Bros, Paramount Or Netflix? Prediction Markets Think This Company May Win The Battle

The latest prediction market odds for the winner of the WBD acquisition saga come after Paramount raised its takeover offer to $31 per share, up from $30 per share.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>According to a Bloomberg report, President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Thursday that 10 to 15 days was “pretty much” the maximum amount of time he would give for negotiations for a nuclear deal with Iran.</li><li>Despite the burgeoning U.S. military buildup in the Middle East, bettors on Polymarket think that the odds of a strike on Iran over the next month are 50:50 at most.</li><li>During an address at a Board of Peace event on Thursday, President Trump said that the next 10 days will show whether the U.S.-Iran tussle escalates or a deal is struck.</li></ul>Prediction markets are buzzing with activity over the prospect of a U.S. strike on Iran after President Donald Trump&nbsp;gave the Middle Eastern country 10 to 15 days to strike a nuclear deal.According to a Bloomberg&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-19/pentagon-amasses-mideast-force-as-trump-threatens-iran-on-talks?srnd=homepage-americas">report</a>, President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Thursday that 10 to 15 days was “pretty much” the maximum amount of time he would give for negotiations for a nuclear deal with Iran.“We’re either going to get a deal, or it’s going to be unfortunate for them,” he added.Amid this, the U.S. military has deployed a vast array of forces in the Middle East, comprising fighter jets, refueling tankers, and two aircraft carriers, according to the report.<h2 class="st-heading-2">What Are Prediction Markets Indicating?</h2>Despite the burgeoning U.S. military buildup in the Middle East, bettors on Polymarket think that the odds of a strike on Iran over the next month are 50:50 at most.At the time of writing, the odds of a strike on Iran between February 20 and March 7 were in the range of 2% to 42%. March 15 is the first time these odds reach 50%. Thereafter, the odds continue to climb, reaching 76% by the end of the year.Bettors on Kalshi are pessimistic about the U.S. and Iran striking a nuclear deal, which would avert a strike.The odds of a deal being struck before April plummeted 39 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling to 27%. The chances of a deal before August 2026 are even lower, at just 16%. Bettors are slightly more optimistic that the deal will be reached before 2027, at 48%.<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Kalshi_Iran_jpg_9fb2274a96.webp" alt="Kalshi prediction market bets on U.S.-Iran nuclear deal on Feb. 20" width="897" height="451"><figcaption>Kalshi prediction market bets on U.S.-Iran nuclear deal on Feb. 20 | Kalshi</figcaption></figure>The total betting volumes on Polymarket regarding a U.S. strike on Iran stood at a staggering $323 million, while Kalshi users placed bets worth $189,000 about the odds of a nuclear deal.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Trump’s Warning To Iran</h2>During an address at a Board of Peace event on Thursday, President Trump said that the <a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/trump-will-find-out-next-10-days-iran-step-futher-or-nuclear-deal/cZRkRUKR4Dd">next 10 days</a> will show whether the U.S.-Iran tussle escalates or a deal is struck.“Now we may have to take it a step further, or we may not. Maybe we're going to make a deal. You're going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days,” he said.Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, also&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/iaea-chief-warns-iran-not-much-time-left-as-trump-warns-of-consequences/cZRjHiQR4wt">warned</a> on Thursday that the window for Iran to strike a nuclear deal is at risk of closing.“There is not much time, but we are working on something concrete. There are a couple of solutions the IAEA has proposed,” Grossi said.Meanwhile, U.S. equities were mixed in Friday’s pre-market trade. At the time of writing, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, edged lower by 0.01%, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/QQQ">Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</a> (QQQ) rose 0.03%, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) declined 0.07%. Retail sentiment around the S&amp;P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bearish’ territory.The&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/TLT">iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (TLT) was up by 0.17% at the time of writing, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/IEF">iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (IEF) rose 0.02%.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/trump-will-find-out-next-10-days-iran-step-futher-or-nuclear-deal/cZRkRUKR4Dd">US-Iran Tensions: Trump Says Next 10 Days Will Show Whether United States Takes It A 'Step Further' Or Makes A Deal</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

U.S. President Donald Trump, pictured in the Oval Office, on September 25, 2025. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Will US Strike Iran Anytime Soon Given Trump's 10-Day Window For More Clarity? Here's What Bettors Think Amid The Military Build-Up In Middle East

The U.S. military has reportedly deployed a vast array of forces in the Middle East, comprising fighter jets, refueling tankers, and two aircraft carriers.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>In an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, Michael Selig stated that event contracts qualify as “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act and are subject to federal oversight.</li><li>According to him, there are currently nearly 50 state cases arguing that event contracts constitute gambling and fall under state law.</li><li>Selig said the agency will defend federally registered exchanges, including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Coinbase, against such state-level litigation.</li></ul>Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig said the agency will “no longer sit idly by” while state governments pursue litigation against federally registered exchanges, including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Coinbase (COIN).The CFTC is starting out with a “friend-of-the-court” filing on Tuesday in support of Crypto.com in the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, according to an opinion piece&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/states-encroach-on-prediction-markets-6eb43af9">written</a> for The Wall Street Journal.“The most common allegation is that these contracts are a form of gambling and therefore subject to state laws,” Selig wrote, noting that nearly 50 state-level cases are currently pending against CFTC-registered exchanges.&nbsp;<blockquote>“The CFTC will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over these markets by seeking to establish statewide prohibitions on these exciting products.”&nbsp;Michael Selig, Chairman, Commodity Futures Trading Commission&nbsp;</blockquote><h2 class="st-heading-2">The Legal Battle Over Prediction Markets</h2>Selig maintained that event contracts serve legitimate economic purposes. According to him, they allow businesses and individuals to hedge risks tied to specific developments, help investors manage exposure, and generate market-based signals about future outcomes.“Farmers can manage risk related to temperature changes that may affect crops, and small-business owners can hedge against tax increases or energy-price spikes, to name two examples,” he wrote.He added that exchanges like Coinbase aren’t the “Wild West,” but self-regulatory organizations that are examined and supervised by experienced CFTC staff. Under the Commodity Exchange Act, Selig argued, event contracts qualify as “swaps.”&nbsp;Selig noted that futures, swaps, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were once new products, but Congress granted the CFTC broad authority to oversee derivatives markets. Just because something is new doesn’t mean courts can reinterpret the law, he wrote.&nbsp;<h2 class="st-heading-2">Crypto Moves In Washington</h2>Selig’s move comes amid stalled negotiations in Washington over the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act). The Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees matters tied to the CFTC’s jurisdiction, advanced its portion of the bill in January. The Senate Banking Committee’s section, which falls under the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), remains stalled.The intervention also follows the CFTC's announcement of an expanded 35-member crew to run the Innovation Advisory Committee (IAC), which added Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong to its roster alongside the leaders of Ripple, Robinhood, and Bullish.&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/COIN">COIN’s stock</a> moved 1% higher after hours on Monday, building on Friday’s 16% rally sparked by its earnings call, though&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/coinbase-post-earnings-rebound-faces-a-wary-wall-street/cZR5pXqR4sr">analysts remained cautious</a> in their outlook. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the cryptocurrency exchange remained in ‘extremely bullish’ territory amid ‘extremely high’ levels of chatter over the past day.&nbsp;Read also:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/shark-tank-kevin-o-leary-says-bitcoin-crash-cleared-out-poo-poo-coins/cZRW7xKR4Mo">Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary Says Crypto Crash Cleared Out ‘Poo Poo’ Coins – Only Bitcoin, Ethereum Matter Now</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Michael Selig, Chairman and Commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, on Wednesday, November 19, 2025. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Michael Selig Says CFTC Won’t Sit ‘Idly By’ As States Target Coinbase, Polymarket – First Court Filing Tuesday 

The CFTC plans to file a “friend-of-the-court” brief supporting Crypto.com in the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Data from popular prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show that bets regarding the Supreme Court’s potential decision are now worth over $9 million.</li><li>On Kalshi, users think there is a 30% chance that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump tariffs by 2028.</li><li>On Polymarket, bettors think there is a slightly lower chance of a positive ruling for the Trump administration, with 28% expecting a ruling in President Trump’s favor.</li></ul>The U.S. Supreme Court has reportedly set February 20 as the next opinion day as it returns after a four-week recess, amid the ongoing case regarding President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.According to a Bloomberg&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-13/supreme-court-schedules-opinions-on-feb-20-as-tariff-case-looms">report</a>, the SCOTUS is&nbsp;also expected to issue opinions on February 24 and 25, in addition to those scheduled for February 20. Hearings in the Trump tariffs case were held in November 2025.<h2 class="st-heading-2">What Are Predicting Markets Indicating?</h2>Data from popular prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show that bets regarding the Supreme Court’s potential decision are now worth over $9 million. While Kalshi volumes show bets worth more than $5 million, Polymarket bets had reached nearly $4.4 million at the time of writing.Data from Kalshi shows that users think there is a 30% chance the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump's tariffs by 2028.<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Kalshi_tariffs_jpg_613b2fc839.webp" alt="Kalshi prediction market bets on Supreme Court tariffs case on Feb. 13" width="866" height="468"><figcaption>Kalshi prediction market bets on Supreme Court tariffs case on Feb. 13 | Kalshi</figcaption></figure>On Polymarket, bettors think there is a slightly lower chance of a positive ruling for the Trump administration, with 28% expecting a ruling in President Trump’s favor. Both the bets require an official announcement from the Supreme Court.<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Polymarket_tariffs_jpg_c1d80d9584.webp" alt="Polymarket prediction market bets on Supreme Court tariffs case on Feb. 13" width="951" height="471"><figcaption>Polymarket prediction market bets on Supreme Court tariffs case on Feb. 13 | Polymarket</figcaption></figure><h2 class="st-heading-2">Trump Tariffs Draw Skepticism From Conservative Justices</h2>At a November hearing, Trump's tariffs&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/trump-tariffs-case-supreme-court/cL2q8jQREG6">drew skepticism</a> from conservative justices, with Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett questioning whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) authorized President Trump to impose emergency tariffs.Chief Justice Roberts also said that Congress has the “core power” when it comes to tax regulation, while rejecting the Trump administration’s claim that tariffs are not taxes.In January, President Trump&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/trump-600-billion-tariffs-ahead-of-supreme-court-decision/cmxMoQaR4bC">stated</a> that the U.S. would soon receive more than $600 billion in tariffs. He called the upcoming Supreme Court’s tariff decision “one of the most important ever” in the apex court’s history.Meanwhile, U.S. equities gained in Friday’s midday trade. At the time of writing, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, was up by 0.68%, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/QQQ">Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</a> (QQQ) rose 0.88%, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) gained 0.48%. Retail sentiment around the S&amp;P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bearish’ territory.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/us-consumer-inflation-january-2026-cpi-report/cZR5t5IR4sz">CPI Report: Annual Inflation Rate Comes In At 2.4% In January, Below Wall Street Expectations</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

A trade court ruled in late May that Trump tariffs were illegal but its ruling was since then stayed by an appeals court:.

Supreme Court Reportedly Sets February 20 As Next Opinion Day Amid Ongoing Trump Tariffs Case — Here Are The Latest Prediction Market Odds

According to a Bloomberg report, the SCOTUS is also expected to issue opinions on February 24 and 25, in addition to those scheduled for February 20.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour also played down criticism of the company over concerns of insider trading.</li><li>He added that, as a regulated financial market overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Kalshi must follow the same rules as the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange.</li><li>Mansour also said that Kalshi has the same enforcement mechanism as the Nasdaq and the NYSE.</li></ul>Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour reportedly said on Tuesday that Super Bowl trading volumes on the platform soared 2,700% this year and crossed $1 billion.During an interview with&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/10/kalshi-super-bowl.html">CNBC</a>, Mansour stated that halftime performer Bad Bunny’s opening song crossed the $100 million mark in terms of trading volumes on the platform.“It was an incredible weekend. Kalshi was the biggest brand of the Super Bowl this year, without running a Super Bowl ad, and the way we achieved that is the product,” Mansour said.Kalshi is a regulated exchange and prediction market that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Some examples include the Federal Reserve’s&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/will-fed-cut-rates-this-week-january-2026-cme-fedwatch-experts/cmy7uWFR4h7">rate cuts</a>, the race for the central bank’s&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/bessent-trump-fed-chair-decision-next-week-what-betting-markets-show/cmUumaVR4aY">Chair position</a>, and the U.S.&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/will-us-government-shutdown-saturday-trump-warns-it-could-be-damaging/cmySKxFR4Sc">government shutdown</a>.The Seattle versus New England game alone saw trading volumes of $500 million.<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Kalshi_jpg_4ba9601d9e.webp" alt="Kalshi trading volumes for the Seattle versus New England game during Super Bowl LX" width="1167" height="818"><figcaption>Kalshi trading volumes for the Seattle versus New England game during Super Bowl LX | Kalshi</figcaption></figure><h2 class="st-heading-2">Mansour Plays Down Criticism</h2>The Kalshi chief also played down criticism of the company over concerns of insider trading.“The insider trading risk is very real for the stock market as well,” Mansour said in the interview.He added that, as a regulated financial market overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi must follow the same rules as the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange. Mansour also said that Kalshi has the same enforcement mechanism as the Nasdaq and the NYSE.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Kalshi’s Expanded Surveillance Efforts</h2>The predictions platform announced expanded surveillance efforts a week before this year’s Super Bowl.Kalshi formed an independent surveillance advisory committee and new trading surveillance partnerships with Solidus Labs and Daniel Taylor, Director of the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab.“Kalshi was the first to regulate prediction markets in America. We’re now bringing on some of the industry’s leading surveillance experts to build and guide the future of prediction market compliance,” said Kalshi’s Head of Enforcement, Robert DeNault.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/paramount-skydance-enhances-warner-bros-bid/cZbU7mJR4pG">Paramount Skydance Enhances $30 Per Share Bid For Warner Bros Discovery</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Kalshi CEO Says Super Bowl Trading Volumes Soared 2,700% This Year, Crossing $1B: Report

During an interview with CNBC, Mansour stated that halftime performer Bad Bunny’s opening song crossed the $100 million mark in terms of trading volumes on the platform.

In this photo illustration, the High Roller Technologies logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen.

ROLR Stock Chases Another Winning Day As Prediction-Market Bet Keeps Paying Off

A responsible-gambling push in Ontario and aggressive 2026 growth plans keep momentum roaring.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>The app allows users to express views on major financial, cultural, and sports-related events by buying or selling event-based contracts.</li><li>The contracts are priced between $0.01 and $0.99.</li><li>Earlier on Monday, Coinbase Global acquired The Clearing Company to strengthen its prediction markets push.</li></ul>FanDuel, part of Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), and CME Group (CME), on Monday, announced the launch of the FanDuel Predicts mobile application in five U.S. states, marking the start of a phased national rollout.This is part of a tie-up between Flutter Entertainment and CME Group to launch products allowing users to wager as little as $1 on financial market outcomes.FanDuel Predicts is set to debut in Alabama, Alaska, South Carolina, North Dakota, and South Dakota, with broader expansion planned over the coming months and into early 2026. The app allows users to express views on major financial, cultural, and sports-related events by buying or selling event-based contracts. Contracts are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, enabling users to take a position by selecting “Yes” or “No” on whether an event will occur.The platform will offer contracts tied to financial benchmarks such as the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq-100, commodities including oil, gas, and gold, cryptocurrencies, and key economic indicators such as GDP and inflation. Sports-related contracts will also be available in states where online sports betting remains illegal, excluding tribal lands. As states legalize sports betting, those contracts will be removed.<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/FLUT">Flutter shares</a> gained 1% on Monday, while <a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/CME">CME stock</a> was up 1.5%.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Prediction Markets Boom</h2>The move comes as companies expand wagering and trading into a broader range of event-based markets, including economic and political outcomes, sports, and cryptocurrencies. Platforms including Kalshi and Interactive Brokers have already gained traction in this space.Last week, DraftKings (DKNG) launched a prediction app called DraftKings Predictions, starting with sports and financial markets.Earlier on Monday, Coinbase Global (COIN) announced a deal to acquire The Clearing Company to strengthen its push into prediction markets. Coinbase said the acquisition will help scale its offering and support its ambition to become an “Everything Exchange.”<h2 class="st-heading-2">How Did Stocktwits Users React?</h2>Retail sentiment for Flutter on Stocktwits remained in the ‘neutral’ territory over the past 24 hours, while sentiment for CME Group remained ‘bearish’ in the same period.Year-to-date, Flutter shares have declined around 13%.Read also: <a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/adea-stock-rallied-30-today-what-s-the-disney-connection/cLeFNSMREMp">ADEA Stock Rallied 30% Today – What’s The Disney Connection?</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

A FanDuel logo is pictured at a baseball game on April 17, 2024 at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Joseph Weiser/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Flutter Unit FanDuel Launches New Prediction App In Five States Ahead Of National Rollout

FanDuel Predicts app will debut in Alabama, Alaska, South Carolina, North Dakota, and South Dakota, with broader expansion planned over the coming months and into early 2026.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>DraftKings’ entry into the predictions market comes after the company acquired Railbird Technologies, a federally regulated prediction market, in October.</li><li>Following the acquisition, Jefferies stated that it believes an offering in predictions is necessary to enter states in which online sports betting is illegal.</li><li>The Boston, Massachusetts-based company, known for its fantasy sports offerings, announced that its prediction markets launch is subject to oversight by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</li></ul>DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) on Friday announced its entry into prediction markets with the launch of a dedicated app, beginning with sports and finance, taking on similar offerings from Kalshi and Polymarket.The Boston, Massachusetts-based company, known for its fantasy sports offerings, announced that its prediction markets launch comes under the oversight of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Named DraftKings Predictions, the service is a standalone web and mobile app that allows users to trade on real-world outcomes across a wide range of markets, beginning with sports and finance, before expanding to other categories.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Railbird Acquisition</h2>DraftKings’ entry into the predictions market comes after the company acquired Railbird Technologies, a federally regulated prediction market, in October.“Along with our operational footprint, marketing and analytics infrastructure, and advanced in-house technology, we believe we are uniquely positioned to lead this space over the long term,” said Corey Gottlieb, chief product officer of DraftKings.Following the acquisition, Jefferies&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/draft-kings-stock-soars-on-railbird-deal-draws-investor-attention-as-jefferies-cheers/cLG5IQER3qP">stated</a> that it believes an offering in predictions is necessary to enter states where online sports betting is illegal.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Taking On Kalshi, Polymarket</h2>The launch of a predictions market will allow DraftKings to compete with Kalshi and Polymarket.Kalshi is currently valued at $11 billion, while rival Polymarket was&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-11-billion-valuation-series-e">reportedly</a> eyeing a valuation of $12 billion to $15 billion. Both Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to bet on a wide range of topics, including sports, politics, and other real-world events.<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DKNG">DKNG stock</a> is down 7% year-to-date and 12% over the past 12 months.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/el-erian-employment-decoupling-from-gdp-due-to-ai/cLeiHPbREs4">El-Erian Sees A New ‘Unsettling’ Economic Risk Emerging In 2026 – And It’s Not Inflation Or Affordability</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

In this photo illustration, the logo of DraftKings Inc. is displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)

DraftKings Takes On Kalshi, Polymarket With New Prediction App In A Push Beyond Sports Betting

Named DraftKings Predictions, the service is a standalone web and mobile app product that allows users to trade on real-world outcomes across a wide range of markets.

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