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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1

Super Micro Computer, Inc. engages in the distribution and manufacture of information technology solutions and other computer products. Its products include twin solutions, MP servers, GPU and coprocessor, MicroCloud, AMD solutions, power supplies, SuperServer, storage, motherboards, chassis, super workstations, accessories, SuperRack and server management products. The company was founded by Charles Liang, Yih-Shyan Liaw, Sara Liu, and Chiu-Chu Liu Liang in September 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, CA.

Super Micro Computer Inc

Super Micro Computer is seeing heavy volume and a surge in bullish sentiment following an earnings report that highlighted improved profit margins and a strong pipeline for its AI infrastructure, leading many in the community to anticipate a significant price re-rating. While retail investors are aggressively debating the potential for a short squeeze and long-term valuation recovery, others remain cautious due to ongoing regulatory scrutiny and historical volatility.

BlackBerry Ltd. engages in the provision of intelligent security software and services. It operates through the following segments: QNX, Secure Communications, and Licensing. The QNX segment includes development of safe and reliable software for embedded systems across technology-driven industries. The Secure Communications segment delivers operational resiliency with a government-grade portfolio of secure, certified solutions for mobile fortification, critical communications and crisis management. The Licensing segment focuses on management and monetization of the firm's global patent portfolio. The company was founded by Michael Lazaridis, James Laurence Balsillie, and Douglas E. Fregin on March 7, 1984 and is headquartered in Waterloo, Canada.

BlackBerry Ltd

BlackBerry is capturing market attention as the community rallies behind its pivot from smartphones to a software-driven cybersecurity and physical AI company, bolstered by a significant Wall Street Journal spotlight and a high-profile presence at upcoming robotics expos. Investors are actively discussing the stock's potential for a major revaluation, citing robust institutional volume, a massive backlog in automotive and robotics technology, and the potential for a sustained breakout above its recent trading range.

Rumble, Inc. engages in operating an online neutral video platform. It operates through the following geographical segments: United States, Canada, and Other. The company was founded in October 2013 by Chris Pavlovski and is headquartered in Longboat Key, FL.

Rumble Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Rumble Inc

Rumble is trending as investors gear up for the imminent close of its Northern Data acquisition, a move widely viewed as a catalyst that could unlock significant AI and cloud computing potential. The community is heavily focused on the stock's record-high short interest and strong backing from Tether, leading to intense debates over the potential for a major short squeeze.

ImmunityBio, Inc. is a clinical stage immunotherapy company. It develops next generation therapies that drive immunogenic mechanisms for defeating cancers and infectious diseases. The company's immunotherapy platform activates both the innate and adaptive immune systems to create long term immunological memory. ImmunityBio was founded by Patrick Soon-Shiong in 2014 and is headquartered in San Diego, CA.

ImmunityBio Inc

ImmunityBio is generating significant community buzz as investors anticipate potential global partnership announcements and updates regarding its AI-driven immunotherapy manufacturing technology. The discussion is heavily centered on a potential short squeeze, with retail traders pointing to high short interest and limited float as key drivers for a potential sharp upward move.

FuboTV, Inc. is a consumer-first live TV streaming company with the mission of delivering premium sports, news and entertainment programming that offers greater choice, flexibility and value. The company was founded by David Gandler, Alberto Horihuela Suarez, and Sung Ho Choi on February 20, 2009 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

fuboTV Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A

fuboTV Inc

FuboTV is trending as investors debate whether the company's recent earnings beat and strategic partnership with Disney signal a long-term turnaround or further decline. Community discussion is heavily divided, with some betting on a potential short squeeze fueled by high short interest and institutional interest, while others express frustration over past stock performance and skepticism regarding management's profitability targets.

TG Therapeutics, Inc. engages in the acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel treatments for B-cell malignancies and autoimmune diseases. Its product pipeline includes TG-1501, TG-1701, Ublituximab, and Umbralisib. The company was founded by Michael Sean Weiss and Laurence H. Shaw on May 18, 1993 and is headquartered in Morrisville, NC.

TG Therapeutics Inc

TG Therapeutics is trending as market sentiment turns bullish, driven by expectations of a blockbuster year for Briumvi, strong commercial execution, and anticipation of upcoming trial readouts for subcutaneous formulations and Azer-cel. The community is actively discussing the potential for a strategic buyout and observing significant institutional accumulation, which many believe is positioning the stock for a breakout beyond current resistance levels.

Novavax, Inc. Is a biotechnology company, which engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of recombinant vaccines. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

Novavax, Inc.

Novavax Inc

Novavax is trending as investors digest a positive earnings report showing significant revenue beats and reduced operating costs while keeping a close eye on the expanding Matrix-M platform, which is currently being explored for over 30 infectious disease and oncology applications. The community is actively debating the potential for future partnerships with global pharma giants and closely tracking activist investor pressure to optimize capital allocation and management structure.

TMC the metals co., Inc. is a deep-sea minerals exploration company focused on the collection and processing of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in international waters of the Clarion Clipperton Zone in the Pacific Ocean (CCZ). These nodules contain high grades of four metals (nickel, copper, cobalt, manganese) which can be used as (i) feedstock for battery cathode precursors (nickel, cobalt and manganese sulfates, or intermediate nickel-copper-cobalt matte) for electric vehicles (EV) and renewable energy storage markets, (ii) copper cathode for EV wiring, energy transmission and other applications and (iii) manganese silicate for manganese alloy production required for steel production. The company was founded in 2021 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

TMC the metals company Inc

TMC is currently trending after an official determination from NOAA declared its deep-seabed mining application fully compliant, a key regulatory milestone that clarifies the path toward commercial recovery permits. The investment community is actively debating the significance of this development for long-term production timelines and the company's role in the critical minerals supply chain, while some investors monitor potential volatility associated with institutional selling and expiring options.

Ernexa Therapeutics, Inc. engages in the provision of cell engineering therapies. It is involved in the development of mRNA cell engineering technologies to repair cellular dysfunction and treat a range of therapeutic indications. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Cambridge, MA.

Ernexa Therapeutics Inc.

Ernexa Therapeutics is trending after announcing a strategic manufacturing partnership with Cellipont Bioservices to advance its ERNA-101 ovarian cancer cell therapy toward clinical trials. Community sentiment is highly polarized, with retail traders focusing on the stock's low float and short-squeeze potential, while critics remain skeptical, highlighting the company's history of reverse splits and dilution.

Celsius Holdings, Inc. engages in the development, marketing, sale, and distribution of functional drinks and liquid supplements. It also offers post-workout functional energy drinks and protein bars. The company was founded in April 2004 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, FL.

Celsius Holdings Inc

Celsius is facing significant volatility and intense community debate as investors navigate a disconnect between its strong product demand and a persistent slide toward 52-week lows ahead of upcoming earnings. Market participants are actively discussing institutional manipulation, potential channel stuffing concerns, and the competitive impact of private-label energy drinks, while bulls continue to position for a post-earnings recovery fueled by the company's growth narrative.

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<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas said prediction market exchange-traded funds could offer low-cost, regulated access to bet on macro events like elections and Fed decisions.</li><li>Institutional interest in prediction markets is rising, with ARK Invest partnering with Kalshi.</li><li>Critics like&nbsp;Strike CEO&nbsp;Jack Mallers&nbsp;stated that the products resemble gambling, citing data showing most users lose money while profits concentrate among a small group.</li></ul>Prediction market exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could go mainstream, offering investors a regulated and low-cost way to bet on macroeconomic events, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas said on Tuesday, even as critics compare the products to gambling.Balchunas, a Senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg,&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/2051637839553507576">noted</a>&nbsp;in a post on X&nbsp;that ETFs could allow investors to take positions on outcomes, in elections, Federal Reserve decisions, and recession risks simply in a “yes/ no fashion.”&nbsp;<figure class="image"><a class="st-link-external" href="https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/2051637839553507576" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Screenshot_2026_05_05_at_11_29_59_AM_png_01a4ff8a84.webp" alt="Screenshot 2026-05-05 at 11.29.59 AM.png" width="1182" height="1378"></a><figcaption>Eric Balchunas on prediction markets. Source: <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/EricBalchunas">@EricBalchunas</a>/x</figcaption></figure>He argued that betting on the event itself removes the need for traditional market forecasting, and that ETF structures tend to appeal to investors because they are regulated, accessible through brokerage accounts, and relatively low-cost.&nbsp;According to Balchunas, prediction market ETFs could become “more popular and legit than people think.”<h2 class="st-heading-2">Prediction Markets Compared To Gambling Platforms</h2>However, the trend has drawn sharp criticism from some crypto industry leaders.Strike CEO Jack Mallers&nbsp;on Monday&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/jackmallers/status/2051299850021396781?s=20">said</a>&nbsp;in a post on X&nbsp;that prediction markets resembled gambling platforms rather than tools for financial empowerment. “Prediction markets aren’t freedom, they’re Las Vegas in a new outfit,” Mallers&nbsp;wrote,&nbsp;adding&nbsp;that such platforms monetize speculation driven by fiat currency dynamics.<figure class="image"><a class="st-link-external" href="https://x.com/jackmallers/status/2051299850021396781?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Screenshot_2026_05_05_at_11_34_36_AM_png_91829c0a16.webp" alt="Screenshot 2026-05-05 at 11.34.36 AM.png" width="1168" height="888"></a><figcaption>Jack Mallers criticises prediction markets. Source: <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/jackmallers">@jackmallers</a>/x</figcaption></figure>Mallers cited a Wall Street Journal&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/polymarket-kalshi-betting-profits-prediction-markets-eb23ac11?mod=e2tw">analysis</a> that found 67% of profits on Polymarket were concentrated among just 0.1% of accounts, while most users incurred losses. He contrasted prediction markets with Bitcoin (BTC), describing it as a system designed for saving rather than speculation.<a href="https://stocktwits.com/coins/bitcoin">Bitcoin’s price</a> was trading at $80,987, up over 2% during the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘bullish’ zone, while chatter around it moved to ‘high’ from ‘normal’ zones over the past day.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Wall Street Push Meets Crypto Skepticism</h2>These&nbsp;comments come as prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have become increasingly popular over the last few years, where users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes.&nbsp;Earlier this year, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/ark-invest-cathie-wood-kalshi-hinges-on-wisdom-of-the-crowds/cZJj1ziRIMI">partnered</a> with Kalshi, signaling the rising institutional interest in integrating prediction markets into more traditional financial frameworks. Other top crypto firms, such as&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/coinbase-reportedly-plans-prediction-markets-launch-with-kalshi/cLICp6DRE89">Coinbase</a> (COIN) and&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/gemini-beats-coinbase-to-market-as-prediction-markets/cLe7wveREoy">Gemini</a> (GEMI), have also ventured into prediction markets.&nbsp;The rising interest comes as prediction markets are&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/14/prediction-markets-will-grow-to-1-trillion-by-2030-bernstein-says.html">projected</a> to reach $1 trillion by 2030, according to Bernstein. However, the regulatory momentum around the products has stalled.&nbsp;The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/prediction-market-etfs-put-on-hold-by-sec-over-structure-concerns/cZQMUmcReJS">reportedly</a> put on hold multiple prediction-market ETFs scheduled for launch this week. This includes the Roundhill ETF, which was expected to launch today.Read also:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/xrp-bitcoin-swap-ripple-cto-schwartz-portfolio-shift/cZQwCHnRe9T">Ex-Ripple CTO Reveals He Sold 26 Million XRP For Bitcoin, Only Holds Ripple Stock To 'Sleep Better At Night'</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

An LED sign outside the D Las Vegas advertises that the property now accepts Bitcoin on January 22, 2014 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Prediction Markets ETFs Could Make The Sector ‘More Legit,’ Analyst Says – But Critic Calls Them ‘Las Vegas in a New Outfit’

In April, Ark Invest teamed with Kalshi to use the data to incorporate prediction markets into their own research.

Prediction Markets ETFs Could Make The Sector ‘More Legit,’ Analyst Says Amid Debut Delay

Cryptocurrency

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>People familiar with the matter told Reuters that the delay is most likely temporary.</li><li>The SEC is reportedly requesting additional information on product mechanics and risk disclosures before allowing the funds to proceed.</li><li>The delay comes as legal scrutiny of prediction markets is increasing, including an insider trading case and state-level regulatory actions.</li></ul>The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has reportedly delayed the launch of more than two dozen prediction market ETFs that were set to go live this week, including Roundhill’s highly anticipated Tuesday debut.People familiar with the matter&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-sec-review-delays-first-prediction-market-etfs-2026-05-04/">told</a> Reuters that the delay is most likely temporary and that the SEC is requesting additional information from issuers on product mechanics and risk disclosures before moving forward with the approvals.&nbsp;The pause lands against a backdrop of escalating legal pressure on the underlying industry. Last month, the Department of Justice unsealed an&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-classified-information-profit-prediction-market-bets">indictment</a> against U.S. Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, in what prosecutors described as the first insider trading case on a prediction market.&nbsp;Van Dyke allegedly used classified information about Operation Absolute Resolve, the U.S. military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, to place $33,034 in bets on Polymarket, netting approximately $409,881. He has pleaded not guilty.&nbsp;<h2 class="st-heading-2">Legal Pressure Builds Around Prediction Markets</h2>The&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/bitwise-graniteshares-roundhill-prediction-etf-launch/cZBA44jReE2">proposed</a> ETFs, filed by Roundhill Investments, GraniteShares, and Bitwise, would use derivatives to track binary event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges such as Kalshi. The products cover elections, recession forecasts, tech layoffs, and crude oil prices. Under SEC rules, ETFs become automatically effective 75 days after filing unless regulators intervene.However, the regulatory friction extends beyond the SEC. Nevada's Gaming Control Board filed a civil complaint against Polymarket in January 2026, and a Massachusetts court found that similar prediction market contracts functioned as illegal sports wagering under state law — a ruling Nevada cited in its own action. More than a dozen bills have been introduced in Congress this year to further regulate prediction markets, some with bipartisan support.&nbsp;It has faced push back from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), with Chair Michael Selig&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/michael-selig-says-cftc-wont-sit-idly-by-as-states-target-coinbase-polymarket/cZRW9HMR4Ms">saying</a> the agency will “no longer sit idly by” while state governments pursue litigation against federally registered exchanges, including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Coinbase (COIN).<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/COIN/">COIN’s stock</a> rose over 7% in midday trade, extending gains from&nbsp;Friday on hopes that the CLARITY Act will get a markup in the Senate soon. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the company improved to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ territory over the past day. Chatter stayed at ‘high’ levels.Retail sentiment around&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/KALSHI">Kalshi</a>, which is not a listed company, trended in ‘bearish’ territory alongside ‘high’ levels of chatter, and sentiment around&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/POLYMARKET">Polymarket</a> trended in ‘neutral’ territory alongside ‘low’ levels of chatter.&nbsp;&nbsp;The SEC has not issued any official comment on the issue at the time of writing.Read also:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/blackrock-ibit-drew-2-3-billion-in-april-despite-negative-ytd-return/cZQMD3EReJL">BlackRock's IBIT Drew $2.3 Billion In April Flows Despite Negative Year-to-Date Return</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com

The logo of Polymarket displayed on the screen of a smartphone in Creteil, France, on March 9, 2026, during a massive insider trading scandal involving bets on the recent military strikes in Iran. (Photo by Samuel Boivin/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Prediction Market ETFs Reportedly Put On Hold By SEC Over Structure Concerns Amid Regulatory Battles

The SEC has reportedly delayed the launch of more than two dozen prediction market ETFs, including products from Roundhill, Bitwise, and GraniteShares.

The First-Ever Prediction Market ETFs Won’t Debut Tomorrow – Why Did The SEC Hit Pause?

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Coinbase Policy Chief Faryar Shirzad said the exchange submitted a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission last week.</li><li>Shirzad said event-based contracts are “not new” and described prediction markets as a “maturing” sector with established economic functions</li><li>The responses follow the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s rulemaking initiative seeking input on how to regulate event-based contracts as the market rapidly expands.&nbsp;</li></ul>Coinbase’s (COIN) Policy Chief Faryar Shirzad said on Sunday that the sector doesn’t need new rules, because it already fits within the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) existing derivatives rules.Shirzad&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/faryarshirzad/status/2050918198124466437?s=20">reported</a> that the exchange had submitted a comment letter to CFTC on prediction markets, outlining its stance on how the emerging sector should be regulated. He shared key points from the submission, stating that event-based contracts are “not new.” The letter was sent last week in response to the regulator’s request for input.<figure class="image"><a class="st-link-external" href="https://x.com/faryarshirzad/status/2050918198124466437?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Screenshot_2026_05_03_at_11_59_36_AM_png_ca6c2a6c07.webp" alt="Screenshot 2026-05-03 at 11.59.36 AM.png" width="471" height="569"></a><figcaption>Faryar Shirzad on prediction markets. Source: <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/faryarshirzad">@faryarshirzad</a>/x</figcaption></figure>Shirzad added that prediction markets are “maturing,” serving a core economic role by aggregating dispersed information into prices and helping participants hedge uncertainty, similar to traditional futures markets. He said the CFTC already has the authority to oversee such products, including restricting contracts that pose risks, and should focus on refining oversight rather than introducing new rules.<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/COIN">Coinbase’s stock</a> was up over 1% during after-hours trading. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around COIN remained in the ‘neutral’ zone, while chatter around it stayed at ‘high’ levels over the past day.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Industry Joins Debate On Prediction Markets</h2>Coinbase is not the only one weighing in. Other crypto-focused firms, including venture capital giants Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) and Paradigm, have also submitted responses to the CFTC.Miles Jennings, the Head of Policy at a16z,&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/milesjennings/status/2050242544085455110">said</a> prediction markets are “one of the most powerful tools we have for turning dispersed knowledge into actionable information,” adding that prices reflect “genuine conviction, not casual opinion.”&nbsp;<figure class="image"><a class="st-link-external" href="https://x.com/milesjennings/status/2050242544085455110" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Screenshot_2026_05_03_at_12_04_59_PM_png_917b57b339.webp" alt="Screenshot 2026-05-03 at 12.04.59 PM.png" width="463" height="535"></a><figcaption>Miles Jennings on CFTC rules. Source: @milesjennings/x</figcaption></figure>Jennings also pointed to rapid growth in the sector, noting that Kalshi’s weekly volumes have surged significantly this year, while warning that regulatory uncertainty could limit future innovation.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Regulatory Pressure&nbsp;</h2>The responses come after CFTC&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9194-26">issued</a> an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) in March, seeking comment on how to regulate prediction markets, also known as event-based contracts. The regulator has been evaluating whether prediction market products fall fully within its existing derivatives framework or require additional guardrails, as trading tied to real-world outcomes gains traction.Prediction markets have gained popularity in recent years, but have also drawn scrutiny from lawmakers who&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/coinbase-gemini-lawsuit-newyork-kalshi/cZBIYoARI6f">argued</a> such products resembled “illegal gambling,” adding to the regulatory uncertainty.&nbsp;Read also:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/ai-capex-boom-warps-nasdaq-as-hyperscalers-take-over-bitcoin-seen-as-hedge-by-wall-street-veteran/cZQAonmRe7X">AI Capex Boom Warps Nasdaq As Hyperscalers Take Over, Bitcoin Seen As Hedge By Wall Street Veteran</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

The Coinbase logo is displayed on a mobile phone with crypto coins in this photo illustration in Brussels, Belgium, on February 11, 2026. (Photo by Jonathan Raa/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Says Prediction Markets Are ‘Maturing’, As Firms Line Up On CFTC Rules

Prediction markets have surged in popularity but face scrutiny from lawmakers who say they resemble “illegal gambling,” raising regulatory uncertainty.

Equity

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>GEMI stock jumped in morning trade after securing a Derivatives Clearing Organization license from the CFTC.</li><li>The approval builds on its December 2025 Designated Contract Market status, completing a key part of its derivatives infrastructure.</li><li>Cameron Winklevoss hailed it as a "major milestone," for the company.</li></ul>Shares of Gemini Space Station (GEMI), backed by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, rocketed on Thursday after the company announced it had secured a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) license from the Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).The license allows Gemini to clear regulated derivatives like prediction markets. In a <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/cameron/status/2049840273056727325">post</a> on X, co-founder and president Cameron Winklevoss hailed it as a "major milestone," for the company, building on their December 2025 Designated Contract Market (DCM) approval that launched Gemini Predictions.<figure class="image"><a class="st-link-external" href="https://x.com/cameron/status/2049840273056727325" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Screenshot_2026_04_30_110219_png_5ce5a22509.webp" alt="Screenshot 2026-04-30 110219.png" width="987" height="1285"></a><figcaption>Source: @cameron/X</figcaption></figure><a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/GEMI/">GEMI’s stock</a> rose as much as 6.5% in morning trade. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the cryptocurrency exchange trended in ‘neutral’ territory over the past day, accompanied by chatter at ‘low’ levels.&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Screenshot_2026_04_30_105228_png_b5d8de671f.webp" alt="Screenshot 2026-04-30 105228.png" width="1266" height="147"><figcaption>GEMI retail sentiment and message volume on April 30 as of 10:30 a.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits</figcaption></figure><h2 class="st-heading-2">Why Is GEMI Stock Rising?</h2>After a decade battling SEC Bitcoin ETF rejections, the Winklevoss twins pivoted to CFTC-regulated infrastructure, crafting a full-stack exchange for spot crypto, predictions, futures, and options which resulted in the creation of Gemini.The DCO license gives Gemini a key piece of infrastructure needed to operate a fully regulated derivatives platform in the U.S. It positions the company to offer clearing services for futures, options, and event-based contracts under CFTC oversight.The company’s earlier DCM approval allowed it to list contracts, while the DCO license enables it to clear those trades internally, reducing reliance on third parties.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Does Gemini Have The Users To Make This Work?</h2>The question that still looms is whether or not Gemini has the volume to capitalize on its new DCO license. Its 24-hour spot trading hit $52 million recently, with $5.5 billion in assets, but trails Coinbase's (COIN) dominance and Kraken's reach. Kraken is more global than Gemini, and Coinbase as over 110 million users, versus Gemini’s 13 million.&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/COIN">COIN's stock </a>rose 3% in morning trade after the company announced a stablecoin credit fund. Retail sentiment around the company on Stocktwits rose to 'neutral' from 'bearish' territory over the past day, accompanied by 'high' levels of chatter.In prediction markets, competition is already established. Kalshi has built significant traction with roughly 50% <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/prediction-markets-hit-27m-fee-record-while-kalshi-faces-court-ban/">market share</a> and more than $52 billion in total volume, while Polymarket has seen more than $1.8 billion in weekly trading volume.Gemini is currently <a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/gemi-stock-gains-after-company-hits-3-year-revenue-high-despite-lawsuit/cZ3XVyjRILe">facing lawsuits</a> for its pivot into prediction markets, with shareholders arguing that the move wasn’t disclosed in the company’s prospectus when it went for its initial public offering (IPO). GEMI’s stock has fallen nearly 90% since its <a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/gemi-stock-soars-on-nasdaq-debut-joins-figure-circle-bullish-in-crypto-wave/chw8xtERdDD">Nasdaq debut</a> in September, and is down over 50% this year.&nbsp;Read also:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/robinhood-cfo-says-gold-membership-built-on-costco-amazon-playbook/cZBM9AtRe4Z">EXCLUSIVE: Robinhood CFO Says Gold Membership Built On Costco, Amazon Prime, Uber Playbook</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com

Cameron Winklevoss co-founder of crypto exchange Gemini Trust Co. speaks during the Bitcoin 2021 Convention. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

GEMI Stock Jumps After CFTC Derivatives Clearing License Win – Winklevoss Twins Target Coinbase, Kalshi Prediction Market Turf

The license allows Gemini to clear regulated derivatives, including prediction market contracts, within its own platform.

GEMI Stock Jumps After Winklevoss’ Gemini Wins CFTC License – Targets Coinbase, Kalshi Turf

The license allows Gemini to clear regulated derivatives, including prediction market contracts, within its own platform.


<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Roundhill Investments updated its filing on Tuesday to delay the launch of prediction markets exchange-traded funds, now targeting a May 5 effective date.</li><li>The proposed exchange-traded funds are designed to track&nbsp;U.S. election outcomes.</li><li>The development signals growing institutional interest in prediction markets as investable products beyond traditional crypto and equities</li></ul>Prediction market exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could launch as early as next week, after Roundhill Investments filed an updated amendment on Tuesday, setting a new effective date for the products.The&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1976517/000139834426007503/fp0098762-1_485bxt.htm">filing</a> revised an earlier proposal submitted in February, signaling that the first batch of prediction market ETFs may soon come to market after a short delay. The funds are designed to track event-based outcomes rather than traditional financial assets.&nbsp;According to the February&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1976517/000139834426003166/fp0097618-1_485apos.htm">filing</a>, one product was aimed at providing capital appreciation based on the outcome of the 2028&nbsp;U.S. presidential election, specifically whether a Democratic candidate would win. Other funds are expected to track which party controls the&nbsp;U.S. House of Representatives and Senate after the&nbsp;mid-term elections later this year.&nbsp;The move marks one of the first attempts to package prediction market-style contracts into a regulated ETF structure.Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/jseyff/status/2049241572567310784?s=46">said</a> on X that other filers are also likely to launch on or around the same day. “That means we should be on the lookout for Bitwise and Granite Shares to have similar filings in coming days (or hours).” he wrote.<figure class="image"><a class="st-link-external" href="https://x.com/JSeyff/status/2049241572567310784?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Screenshot_2026_04_29_at_11_13_14_AM_png_02b9c63d61.webp" alt="Screenshot 2026-04-29 at 11.13.14 AM.png" width="1064" height="1028"></a><figcaption>Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart on Roundhill prediction market ETF. Source: @<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/JSeyff">JSeyff</a>/x</figcaption></figure>Bitwise and GraniteShares also filed for prediction market ETFs alongside Roundhill, targeting products tied to real-world event outcomes like elections.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Prediction Markets Expand Into Crypto</h2>The ETF push comes as prediction market platforms expand into crypto-linked products. According to a Stanford&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2026/04/prediction-markets-facts-gambling-regulation">analysis</a> by former SEC commissioner Joseph Grundfest, prediction markets are growing primarily due to financial incentives, even though they operate in a legal gray area between investment and gambling.Speaking at the Bitcoin 2026 conference on Monday, John Wang, Head of Crypto at Kalshi,&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvBDl_tF2ak">explained</a> that digital assets have become a major part of the platform’s activity. He noted that crypto was now the second-largest category on Kalshi, with Bitcoin (BTC) accounting for about 90% of its crypto trading volume.Kalshi was&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/27/prediction-markets-prepare-to-invade-one-of-cryptos-biggest-and-riskiest-trades.html">reported</a> to be planning a move into crypto perpetual futures around Monday, signaling an expansion into one of the largest and riskiest areas of digital asset trading.<a href="https://stocktwits.com/coins/bitcoin">Bitcoin’s price</a> was trading at $76,606, up over 1% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ zone, while chatter stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Competition Builds With Trading Platforms</h2>The expansion into crypto derivatives could position prediction market platforms as competitors to established trading firms,&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifRbIzAFIJE">according</a> to CNBC.&nbsp;If platforms like Kalshi continued to broaden their offerings, they could begin competing directly with companies such as Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), and Kraken. The convergence of prediction markets, ETFs, and crypto derivatives shows how platforms built around event-based trading are evolving into more comprehensive financial services providers.Another ETF by&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/CHAT">Roundhill Generative AI &amp; Technology ETF (CHAT)</a> was up over 1% in morning trade. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around CHAT remained in the ‘bullish’ zone, while ‘normal’ levels over the past day.&nbsp;Read also:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/defi-hack-standard-chartered-aave/cZBAdQ2ReEG">DeFi Hack Shakes Crypto Confidence, But Standard Chartered Says The System ‘Is Bent Not Broken’</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

The Kalshi market 'Will Iran effectively close the Strait of Hormuz for 7+ days?' appears on a smartphone screen. (Photo by Nikolas Kokovlis/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

First-Ever Prediction Market ETF May Launch Next Week – Analyst Says Bitwise, GraniteShares May Follow RoundHill Lead

Prediction platforms like Kalshi are expanding into crypto-linked offerings, pointing to broader financial ambitions.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Wisconsin filed lawsuits against five platorms platforms, alleging prediction market offerings tied to sports events create a “public nuisance.”</li><li>It named Coinbase, Robinhood, Polymarket, Kalshi and Crypto.com.</li><li>Other states, including Washington, New York, Arizona, and Tennessee, have also filed similar claims.</li></ul>Shares of Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) rose in early-morning trade on Friday despite a fresh lawsuit filed by the state of Wisconsin against the two, cracking down on prediction markets.&nbsp;The state’s Department of Justice (DOJ) filed three complaints and said sports -related event contract offerings were creating a “public nuisance.” The lawsuit also named Polymaket, Kalshi and Crypto.com.<blockquote>"Thinly disguising unlawful conduct doesn't make it lawful.”– Josh Kaul, Wisconsin Attroney General&nbsp;</blockquote><a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/COIN">COIN’s stock</a> rose more than 2% in pre-market trade as the cryptocurrency and equities markets moved higher after President Donald Trump said that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to extend their ceasefire by three weeks.On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the Brian Armstrong-led cryptocurrency exchange dipped to ‘bullish’ from ‘extremely bullish’ territory over the past day, while chatter remained at ‘high’ levels.&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Screenshot_2026_04_24_074232_png_8682b7b5ab.webp" alt="Screenshot 2026-04-24 074232.png" width="1264" height="150"><figcaption>COIN retail sentiment and message volume on April 24 as of 7:35 a.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits</figcaption></figure>Meanwhile,&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/HOOD/">HOOD’s stock</a> also gained more than 2% in pre-market trade. Retail sentiment around the company fell to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ territory over the past day, and chatter fell to ‘normal’ from ‘high’ levels.&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Screenshot_2026_04_24_074218_png_96716f723e.webp" alt="Screenshot 2026-04-24 074218.png" width="1254" height="144"><figcaption>HOOD retail sentiment and message volume on April 24 as of 7:35 a.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits</figcaption></figure><h2 class="st-heading-2">State And Federal Regulators Clash Over Prediction Markets Oversight</h2>This is not the first lawsuit to be filed against the two companies after their foray into prediction markets as states around the U.S. are attempting to discourage what they percieve to be “<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/coinbase-gemini-lawsuit-newyork-kalshi/cZBIYoARI6f">illegal gambling</a>.”Earlier this week, New York Attorney General Letitia James&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/coinbase-gemini-lawsuit-newyork-kalshi/cZBIYoARI6f">sued</a> Coinbase and Gemini, alleging their prediction markets violate state gambling laws. Last month, Kalshi last month was sued Washington State Attorney General Nick Brown, who said its event-based contracts were akin to unregulated sports betting.Tennessee and Arizona have also sued to prevent Kalshi from offering certain markets, while Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois have issued cease-and-desist orders against prediction market operators.However, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) new chairman, Michael S. Selig, has pushed back. He stated that the agency won’t sit “idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over these markets by seeking to establish statewide prohibitions on these exciting products.”&nbsp;Earlier this month, the CFTC&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/michael-selig-says-cftc-wont-sit-idly-by-as-states-target-coinbase-polymarket/cZRW9HMR4Ms">sued</a> Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois, challenging their efforts to regulate prediction market operators, including Kalshi and Polymarket.&nbsp;Read also:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/spacex-ipo-valuation-has-a-500-billion-gap-wall-street-vs-blockchain/cZBQGDVReRo">SpaceX IPO Valuation: The $500B Gap Between Wall Street And Blockchain Nobody Is Talking About</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Monitors display Coinbase signage during the company's initial public offering (IPO) at the Nasdaq market site April 14, 2021 in New York City. 

HOOD, COIN Stocks Gain Despite Fresh Lawsuit Calling Prediction Markets A ‘Public Nuisance’ – Challenging CFTC Authority

This comes after the CFTC sued Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois earlier this month, challenging their efforts to regulate prediction market operators, including Kalshi and Polymarket. 

New York Follows Washington’s Lead, Sues Coinbase and Gemini Over ‘Illegal Gambling’

New York Attorney General reportedly seeks civil penalties of up to three times illegal profits.

Coinbase, Gemini Sued Get Sued Over ‘Illegal Gambling’ After Kalshi Gets Into Hot Water

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Charles Schwab and Citadel Securities are reportedly planning to enter prediction markets.&nbsp;</li><li>Schwab CEO Rick Wurster said the company could easily launch an offering even though there isn't much client demand right now.</li></ul>Charles Schwab (SCHW) and Citadel Securities are reportedly exploring a potential entry into prediction markets, a $1 trillion market.Rick Wurster, the CEO of Schwab, said on an investor call that the company is likely to add a prediction market offering at some point, according to a <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/charles-schwab-citadel-securities-weighing-prediction-markets">report</a>.&nbsp;Wurster said it would be easy to add to its current platform. He also added that the company plans to closely look at the opportunity, even though there doesn't seem to be much client demand right now.&nbsp;Wurster said that Schwab would stay away from areas like sports, politics, and entertainment, stressing that any offering would have to fit with the company's long-term investment goals. He also said that retail bettors have had bad results in the past, which is another reason to be careful.<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SCHW">Charles Schwab's price</a> closed 0.3% down on Friday. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around SCHW remained in an ‘extremely bullish’ zone, while chatter remained at 'high' levels over the past day.&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Screenshot_2026_04_19_at_5_50_30_AM_png_812787ef22.webp" alt="Screenshot 2026-04-19 at 5.50.30 AM.png" width="1262" height="732"><figcaption>SCHW retail sentiment on April 19 as of 5:51 a.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits</figcaption></figure><h2 class="st-heading-2">Citadel Securities Sees Potential In Event-Based Contracts</h2>According to President Jim Esposito, Citadel Securities is also keeping an eye on changes in the space. He said liquidity remains low but could improve over time, according to the report. Esposito said that Citadel is also not looking into sports-related markets, but it does see potential in event-based contracts linked to major political or economic events.&nbsp;He said that these kinds of instruments could be used as hedging tools by both institutional and retail investors, especially when big events could affect how well their portfolios do. But neither company has set a date for the launch.In March,&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/kalshi-hits-11-b-valuation-after-1b-raise-co-founders-now-paper-billionaires/cLIalsYRE0C">platforms like Kalshi</a> and Polymarket had tens of billions of dollars in trading volume each month. Last month, Ark Invest partnered with Kalshi to provide analytical insight to traders. Cathie Wood, CEO and CIO of Ark Invest,&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/ark-invest-cathie-wood-kalshi-hinges-on-wisdom-of-the-crowds/cZJj1ziRIMI">called it</a> "the beginnings of bringing active equity management back into style." Kalshi's event contracts and prediction markets focus on events that have a direct effect on the equity market, said Wood.&nbsp;She believes that as more people watch and trade around these events, they may become interested in investing in related stocks. This could lead to some money moving out of passive index portfolios and into more active strategies.Bernstein (AB)&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://in.investing.com/news/economy-news/prediction-markets-are-a-1-trillion-market-by-2030-bernstein-says-5345165">predicted</a> that the volume of event contracts could reach about $240 billion by the end of 2026 and grow into a $1 trillion market by 2030. But in the US, the industry is facing increasing regulatory pressure.&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/kalshi-faces-legal-heat-as-attorney-general-says-prediction-markets-break-washington-gambling-laws/cZ3CS0SRIZc">Some state officials</a> have taken platforms to court over claims of illegal sports betting, and some members of Congress have expressed worry about the possibility of insider trading and the integrity of the market.Read also: ‘<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-michael-saylor-defies-critics-schiff-slams-strategys-yield/cZBGcXPRIUU">Impossible To Blockade Bitcoin,’ Michael Saylor Defies Critics, Schiff Slams Strategy’s 11.5% Yield</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

In this photo illustration, the logo of US company The Charles Schwab Corporation is displayed on a smartphone in front of abstract background on computer screen. (Photo Illustration by Timon Schneider/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Charles Schwab, Citadel Circle Prediction Markets While Bernstein Calls $1 Trillion Boom — Even As Regulators Close In: Report

Bernstein expects event-contract volumes to reach $240 billion by 2026 and $1 trillion by 2030.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>The report said lawmakers believe sports betting on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket resembles gambling and bypasses state-level consumer protection.&nbsp;</li><li>Crypto exchanges, including Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken, have recently launched or announced plans to enter prediction markets.</li><li>Robinhood has already rolled out sports-related contracts through its partnership with Kalshi.</li></ul>A bipartisan pair of U.S. senators has reportedly introduced legislation targeting prediction markets, just as crypto exchanges including Coinbase (COIN), Gemini (GEMI), Kraken, and others are expanding into the fast-growing sector.According to a&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/lawmakers-to-introduce-bipartisan-bill-banning-sports-bets-on-prediction-markets-17d2e272">report</a> by The Wall Street Journal, the bill introduced on Monday would prohibit Commodity Futures Trading&nbsp;Commission (CFTC)-regulated entities like Kalshi and Polymarket from listing contracts tied to sporting events. It said that the proposal marks the first bipartisan Senate effort to directly address prediction markets.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Senate Targets Sports Contracts On Prediction Platforms</h2>The report said lawmakers backing the bill argue that sports-related contracts on federally regulated platforms resemble traditional betting products while operating outside state-level gambling frameworks.“The CFTC is greenlighting these markets and even promoting their growth,” Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) stated. “It’s time for Congress to step in and eliminate this backdoor, which violates state consumer protections, intrudes upon tribal sovereignty, and offers no public revenue.”The bill also extended beyond sports, seeking to prohibit “casino-style games” such as slot machines, blackjack, video poker, and bingo from being offered through these platforms, the report said.Sen. John Curtis (R-UT), who co-sponsored the bill, framed the issue around consumer exposure. “Too many young people in Utah are getting exposed to addictive sports betting and casino-style gaming contracts that belong under state control, not under federal regulators,” he said.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Crypto Exchanges Accelerate Push Into Prediction Markets</h2>Both Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) have prediction markets and allow for sports betting on their platforms via partnerships with Kalshi. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has been pushing for Coinbase to become an “everything exchange” and recently&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/coinbase-reportedly-plans-prediction-markets-launch-with-kalshi/cLICp6DRE89">announced</a> USDC-funded trade on prediction markets in partnership with Kalshi. Meanwhile, Robinhood (HOOD) partnered with Kalshi to&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/robinhood-stock-surges-after-launch-of-prediction-markets-hu/ch7hgMzRbcd">launch</a> its prediction markets hub in March 2025 and introduced sports contracts in August 2025.The new legislation could put a dent in their plans to expand revenue streams beyond cryptocurrency trading, and stock trading, in Robinhood’s case. Coinbase and Robinhood are the only two listed companies operating prediction markets in partnership with Kalshi, but others have also expanded into the space.&nbsp;Gemini (GEMI), backed by the Winklevoss twins,&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/gemini-beats-coinbase-to-market-as-prediction-markets/cLe7wveREoy">introduced</a> ‘Gemini Predictions’ in December 2025 for betting on sports events. Kraken, widely anticipated to go public this year, said it would launch prediction markets on its platform in 2026.&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/COIN">COIN’s stock</a> was down 2.75% in pre-market trade amid broader weakness across the stock and cryptocurrency markets after fresh threats from President Donald Trump against Iran kept oil prices above the $100 mark. Meanwhile,&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/GEMI">GEMI’s stock</a> fell 3.35%, and&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/HOOD/">HOOD’s stock</a> was down 2.14% in early morning trade on Monday.On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around COIN and HOOD remained in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day, while sentiment around GEMI improved to ‘neutral’ from the ‘bearish’ zone.&nbsp;Read also:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/coinbase-launches-perpetual-futures-amid-hyperliquid-s-trading-boom/cZ3XY6pRILg">Coinbase Launches Perpetual Futures Amid Hyperliquid’s Trading Boom – MAG 7, SPY, QQQ In Lineup</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

In this photo illustration, a person holds a smartphone displaying the Kalshi app icon, with the Kalshi branding visible in the background

Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken Prediction Market Expansion Under Threat After Senate Reportedly Moves To Restrict Sector

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, the legislation would prohibit sports-related contracts on CFTC-regulated platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Senator Jeff Merkley stated that he first became concerned about prediction markets after a bettor on Polymarket won more than $400,000 by accurately predicting that the U.S. would remove Maduro.</li><li>He added that it was “extraordinarily likely” that somebody in the group of people who knew about the U.S. action leaked the information to a bettor on the prediction platform.</li><li>A New York Times analysis found more than 150 Polymarket accounts placed bets of over $1,000 predicting last Saturday’s U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran a day early.</li></ul>Democratic lawmakers&nbsp;led by Senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar are reportedly set to introduce a bill banning the President, Vice President, and members of Congress from placing bets on prediction markets.According to a CNBC&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/prediction-markets-merkley-ban-iran.html">report</a>, the bill also seeks to ban senior executive branch officials from prediction markets, with fines starting at $10,000 for those found in violation of the rules.The bill comes at a time when major international events, such as the ouster of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the Iran war, have seen bets placed on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.“Members receive all sorts of tips and advice. The actual demonstration of insider trading is too difficult to be sufficient to address the problem. The problem becomes both real corruption … and the appearance of corruption and conflict of interest,” Merkley said during the interview.<h2 class="st-heading-2">The Venezuela Bet That Made Merkley Suspicious</h2>Merkley stated that he first became concerned about prediction markets after a bettor on Polymarket won more than $400,000 by accurately predicting that the U.S. would remove Maduro.“That was a case where you had the secretary of state saying ‘we didn’t notify Congress the way we’re supposed to under the law because we were too concerned about a leak,’” Merkley said during the interview.He added that it was “extraordinarily likely” that somebody in the group of people who knew about the U.S. action leaked the information to a bettor on the prediction platform.“This legislation strengthens the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s ability to go after bad actors and provides rules of the road to prevent those with confidential government or policy information from exploiting their access for financial gain,” Sen. Klobuchar said in a statement to CNBC.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Soaring Popularity Of Prediction Markets</h2>According to an&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/upshot/prediction-markets-iran-strikes.html">analysis</a> by The New York Times, a day before the joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran Saturday last week, more than 150 accounts placed bets of at least $1,000 on Polymarket, accurately predicting attacks on the Middle Eastern country.The analysis also showed that at least 16 accounts profited by more than $100,000 each, while at least 109 accounts made more than $10,000.One user reportedly took home nearly half a million dollars after placing bets worth over $60,000.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Israeli Army Reservists Arrested Over Suspicion Of Using Classified Information</h2>Earlier in February, the Israeli authorities arrested several army reservists and a civilian over suspicion of using classified information to place bets on an online prediction platform.Israeli authorities said that the charges came after an investigation into suspected gambling “based on classified information to which the reservists were exposed by virtue of their role in the army,” according to a&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/12/world/middleeast/israel-army-reservists-classified-information-bets.html">report</a> by The New York Times.Meanwhile, U.S. equities declined in Thursday’s pre-market trade. At the time of writing, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, was down 0.43%; the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/QQQ">Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</a> (QQQ) fell 0.56%; and the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) declined 0.72%. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits regarding the S&amp;P 500 ETF was in the ‘neutral’ territory.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/berkshire-hathaway-ceo-greg-abel-purchases-15-million-stock/cZdQtjDRI34">Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel Loads Up On $15M In Stock, BRK Resumes Share Buybacks</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., speaks during the Senate Democrats' news conference in the U.S. Capitol

Democrat Lawmakers Move To Ban Government Officials From Prediction Markets After Iran, Maduro Bets: Report

The bill comes at a time when major international events, such as the ouster of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the Iran war, have drawn bets on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

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