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 Hey, I want to invite you to join Stocktwits. It’s the largest global community of active traders. You’ll get access to the real-time market insights, news, discussion and much more! You can sign up using my unique link below 
 


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$IOVA I have a question for those familiar with historical acquisition data in the biotech sector. 
 
How do stock prices typically move after a buyout is announced? Specifically, how far does the SP usually go? 
 
Based on what I&#39;ve read, stock prices usually go +40% to +50%. Is it reasonable to expect a x2, x3 or more, or am I dreaming? 
 
Thanks in advance! Just daydreaming a bit this Sunday afternoon :)

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Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc

 I have a question for those familiar with historical acquisition data in the biotech sector. 
 
How do stock prices typically move after a buyout is announced? Specifically, how far does the SP usually go? 
 
Based on what I've read, stock prices usually go +40% to +50%. Is it reasonable to expect a x2, x3 or more, or am I dreaming? 
 
Thanks in advance! Just daydreaming a bit this Sunday afternoon :)

@Kai_01 it typically rises to a little bit under the announced BO price, to account for the possibility that the deal doesn&#39;t close.

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 it typically rises to a little bit under the announced BO price, to account for the possibility that the deal doesn't close.

Chet Namath

@SlapSoHard You mean that before a buyout, they spread rumours about the deal, which causes the stock price to rise even before it’s officially announced, right? Are we talking about that final 30–50% (or even higher) jump? Thank you!

 You mean that before a buyout, they spread rumours about the deal, which causes the stock price to rise even before it’s officially announced, right? Are we talking about that final 30–50% (or even higher) jump? Thank you!

@Kai_01 Naturally we see the price of stocks go up as a company progresses.  When there is a BO in the works, it is not unusual to see additional increases in the stock prices.  Face it, news of a possible BO often leaks.  There are lots of people involved.  The two companies employees; the employees of the banks and lawyers that are working on the deal; and all of the friends and relatives off all those people.  Consider you are at a gathering and a friend tells you he has been working on a big BO.  If he told you the companies involved would you go out and buy it?  Most people would. 
 
This is the reason why most people looking at these deals use 30, 60 or 90 day moving average to state the premium for the deals.   
 
After a BO is announced, the price typically moves to within 3-5% of the final BO price.  That is the market assigning a risk of the deal not going through.   
 
If you buy low and hold, you can see 2x, 3x or more.  My best was 2100%.  In at $4, BO at $88.  It can happen.

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 Naturally we see the price of stocks go up as a company progresses.  When there is a BO in the works, it is not unusual to see additional increases in the stock prices.  Face it, news of a possible BO often leaks.  There are lots of people involved.  The two companies employees; the employees of the banks and lawyers that are working on the deal; and all of the friends and relatives off all those people.  Consider you are at a gathering and a friend tells you he has been working on a big BO.  If he told you the companies involved would you go out and buy it?  Most people would. 
 
This is the reason why most people looking at these deals use 30, 60 or 90 day moving average to state the premium for the deals.   
 
After a BO is announced, the price typically moves to within 3-5% of the final BO price.  That is the market assigning a risk of the deal not going through.   
 
If you buy low and hold, you can see 2x, 3x or more.  My best was 2100%.  In at $4, BO at $88.  It can happen.

Bio Trader

@Kai_01 no, I meant what the stock does upon an official announcement.

 no, I meant what the stock does upon an official announcement.

@Kai_01 you are dreaming... there is often a pre-run-up... with unusual volume... after that BO announcement with a premium of around 40 - 60 % ...

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 you are dreaming... there is often a pre-run-up... with unusual volume... after that BO announcement with a premium of around 40 - 60 % ...

@Kai_01 keep in mind current SP has no bearing on buyout price

Look at price action on IMGN and IMMU

The valuation is dependent on peak revenue. Average BO over past decade was 5.7x peak revenue. There are charts online that track it.

Take peak revenue OR year 5 revenue times 5 and divide by outstanding shares to determine potential  BO price range. Sometimes you’ll have a situation where it’s discounted based on mfg constraints and such. 

If a purchasing company will determine that they have an addressable population of 30,000 patients, but can only mfg 10,000 units you’d discount based on the constraint

That’s still a $70 buyout in this case

Badgerkid

Dan Sfera

DJ Vance

 keep in mind current SP has no bearing on buyout price

Look at price action on IMGN and IMMU

The valuation is dependent on peak revenue. Average BO over past decade was 5.7x peak revenue. There are charts online that track it.

Take peak revenue OR year 5 revenue times 5 and divide by outstanding shares to determine potential  BO price range. Sometimes you’ll have a situation where it’s discounted based on mfg constraints and such. 

If a purchasing company will determine that they have an addressable population of 30,000 patients, but can only mfg 10,000 units you’d discount based on the constraint

That’s still a $70 buyout in this case

LP Gary

@BioAmerica in a $4 a $80. Wow, impressive. I assume that’s not available to us, but I get the principle: Iovance could do a x2, x3 and who knows, correct?

 in a $4 a $80. Wow, impressive. I assume that’s not available to us, but I get the principle: Iovance could do a x2, x3 and who knows, correct?

@copywrites yep, this is what I’ve been able to find. But there are cases where the prices has done a x2 or more. Hence why I’m asking.

 yep, this is what I’ve been able to find. But there are cases where the prices has done a x2 or more. Hence why I’m asking.

@BayouBiotech I see! That’d be increíble. We might have to settle for much less of course. We’ll see!

 I see! That’d be increíble. We might have to settle for much less of course. We’ll see!

@Kai_01 @BioAmerica imo $20 it’s a decent BO price tag for IOVA…

 imo $20 it’s a decent BO price tag for IOVA…

@Kai_01 A general look at buyout prices relative to the stock prices  before the announced sale is not a very good way to predict value of a single company.  To even guess at Iovance&#39;s future buyout price potential would require comparing companies at the same stage of growth or commercialization.   
 
Iovance has an approved product and likely will have several more over the next 2-3 years.  The value of a revenue producing asset is significantly different than the value of an early stage clinical pipeline with no approved products. 
 
The IP also can carry a significant value if that IP should prove to be a part of future commercial standards which is highly likely with Iovance&#39;s patent portfolio. 
 
Should Iovance achieve profitability prior to negotiating a buyout, the price could and should be significantly higher when based on future expected sales.   
 
I think you&#39;re getting lost in the numbers but not looking at those specific cases that would match Iovance on a truly comparative basis.  GL

Scooot

Tony D

 A general look at buyout prices relative to the stock prices  before the announced sale is not a very good way to predict value of a single company.  To even guess at Iovance's future buyout price potential would require comparing companies at the same stage of growth or commercialization.   
 
Iovance has an approved product and likely will have several more over the next 2-3 years.  The value of a revenue producing asset is significantly different than the value of an early stage clinical pipeline with no approved products. 
 
The IP also can carry a significant value if that IP should prove to be a part of future commercial standards which is highly likely with Iovance's patent portfolio. 
 
Should Iovance achieve profitability prior to negotiating a buyout, the price could and should be significantly higher when based on future expected sales.   
 
I think you're getting lost in the numbers but not looking at those specific cases that would match Iovance on a truly comparative basis.  GL

@Kai_01 Acquisition price is based on discounted potential revenues and profits for the projected approved indications. If the net present value for these future revenues is $10B, then that&#39;s the buyout price, or thereabouts. As for &quot;leaks&quot;, M&amp;A professionals don&#39;t leak. That&#39;s what they get paid big money to do. The current SP is of little meaning.

alberto

CB, Structural Biologist

 Acquisition price is based on discounted potential revenues and profits for the projected approved indications. If the net present value for these future revenues is $10B, then that's the buyout price, or thereabouts. As for "leaks", M&A professionals don't leak. That's what they get paid big money to do. The current SP is of little meaning.

Jeffrey A Stone

@Kai_01 I am not sure what you&#39;re asking. How much the stock price will rise on the BO announcement depends on the BO price and structure. If it&#39;s an all cash offer at say $20 per share, then we will immediately jump to slightly under, maybe 18-19 range. Why not 20? Because there is some risk that the BO doesn&#39;t close.

If the BO offer has cash and CVR, then the stock will jump to somewhere in between cash and CVR value.

There is no typical 30-40% jump like you&#39;re implying. It depends on the BO price.

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 I am not sure what you're asking. How much the stock price will rise on the BO announcement depends on the BO price and structure. If it's an all cash offer at say $20 per share, then we will immediately jump to slightly under, maybe 18-19 range. Why not 20? Because there is some risk that the BO doesn't close.

If the BO offer has cash and CVR, then the stock will jump to somewhere in between cash and CVR value.

There is no typical 30-40% jump like you're implying. It depends on the BO price.

@Kai_01 It really depends. are there antitrust issues? is there a ”hell or high water clause?” What does the due diligence period look like? it is really hard to apply a true formula. This is also why I think we have this opportunity.

 It really depends. are there antitrust issues? is there a ”hell or high water clause?” What does the due diligence period look like? it is really hard to apply a true formula. This is also why I think we have this opportunity.

Dan Glinert

@Badgerkid thank for your input, Badger! It seems I’m getting closer to understanding how this jungle works!

 thank for your input, Badger! It seems I’m getting closer to understanding how this jungle works!

@Chi_Booth thank you! I’ll look more into it!

@danglinert thanks Dan! What BO-resulting SP are you betting on, and when? :)

 thanks Dan! What BO-resulting SP are you betting on, and when? :)

@dogbone98 what’s your personal bet on BO resulting stock price and BO timing? Asking for a friend. 👀

 what’s your personal bet on BO resulting stock price and BO timing? Asking for a friend. 👀

@Kai_01 You have gotten some phenomenal responses to your question!  It is deal specific. There is often a run up before a deal is announced with higher than normal volume.  A lack of insider buying at depressed prices can SOMETIMES indicate negotiations are underway. Post deal announcement stocks will trade to a slight  discount to the deal IF there is likelihood of the deal closing, a discount if there is HIGH risk it won’t close and in some instances the stock will actually trade at a PREMIUM to the deal price if a bidding war is seen as strong possibility.  Depends on the deal and the structure.  For IOVA everyone has an opinion, mine is that the company is building a platform and expects a large BO number which I also think is why they didn’t sell in 2024 after FDA approval.  But multiple of peak revenue is usually how biotech deals get priced.  When you hear the company referencing peak revenue often they are positioning and telegraphing what they expect.  Again just my opinion.

 You have gotten some phenomenal responses to your question!  It is deal specific. There is often a run up before a deal is announced with higher than normal volume.  A lack of insider buying at depressed prices can SOMETIMES indicate negotiations are underway. Post deal announcement stocks will trade to a slight  discount to the deal IF there is likelihood of the deal closing, a discount if there is HIGH risk it won’t close and in some instances the stock will actually trade at a PREMIUM to the deal price if a bidding war is seen as strong possibility.  Depends on the deal and the structure.  For IOVA everyone has an opinion, mine is that the company is building a platform and expects a large BO number which I also think is why they didn’t sell in 2024 after FDA approval.  But multiple of peak revenue is usually how biotech deals get priced.  When you hear the company referencing peak revenue often they are positioning and telegraphing what they expect.  Again just my opinion.

@TVC1 thank you Adam, for such a meaningful contribution. It seems I’m closer to understanding how to do “my own” estimates. Thanks for your help!!! And I agree with your previous to last statement. Exctiting times to be an Iovance investor :)

Dusktildawn352

 thank you Adam, for such a meaningful contribution. It seems I’m closer to understanding how to do “my own” estimates. Thanks for your help!!! And I agree with your previous to last statement. Exctiting times to be an Iovance investor :)

@Kai_01 I forgot 1-MYOV. There was a run up in sp prior to that one because there was speculation re the BO in advance of the announcement. But even in that case I believe the rumors weren’t based on insider leaks but on publicly available info that caused the speculation.

 I forgot 1-MYOV. There was a run up in sp prior to that one because there was speculation re the BO in advance of the announcement. But even in that case I believe the rumors weren’t based on insider leaks but on publicly available info that caused the speculation.

@Kai_01 @dogbone98 Kai, anything anyone says about BO projections and timing is just wild speculation, particularly with IOVA which is a paradigm shifting solid tumor platform. We all just need to sit back, relax, and keep an eye on gradual progress in the overall business. 🎢

Chad Schott

Roklar

 Kai, anything anyone says about BO projections and timing is just wild speculation, particularly with IOVA which is a paradigm shifting solid tumor platform. We all just need to sit back, relax, and keep an eye on gradual progress in the overall business. 🎢

@scooot @dogbone98 I know you are right, I’m just so eager to get there!

 I know you are right, I’m just so eager to get there!

@Kai_01 Remember, we&#39;re all just guessing.  We won&#39;t know until we know and even then, the final number may surprise every one of us.  GL.

 Remember, we're all just guessing.  We won't know until we know and even then, the final number may surprise every one of us.  GL.

@Kai_01 I understand, but it should be clear that people on this board don&#39;t know anything about a potential BO, or what the price will be if it ever happens. $10B - $50B in 2 to never years is probabky the only correct answer.

Biotech acquisitions typically follow a discounted cash flow valuation; even these models can vary wildly depending on the chosen discount rate, tax rate, share count, TAM, market penetration assumptions, pipeline success, etc., etc. Best to just kick back and relax, you have a far lower average than 90% of folks here.

 I understand, but it should be clear that people on this board don't know anything about a potential BO, or what the price will be if it ever happens. $10B - $50B in 2 to never years is probabky the only correct answer.

Biotech acquisitions typically follow a discounted cash flow valuation; even these models can vary wildly depending on the chosen discount rate, tax rate, share count, TAM, market penetration assumptions, pipeline success, etc., etc. Best to just kick back and relax, you have a far lower average than 90% of folks here.