Technically Speaking – March 24, 2023

There’s one more week left in March before the end of Q1 2023 and the beginning of Q2 2023.Β 

It’s a good time to review how Q2 and the month of April have historically performed for $BTC and the broader crypto market.Β 

Highlighted: Historical Q2s From 2010 – 2022. Click to enlarge.

Historically, for Bitcoin, Q2 is the best-performing quarter of the year. πŸŽ‰

πŸ”΄ 2010 -1.32%
🟩 2011 +1,952%
🟩 2012 +36.29%
🟩 2013 +4.82%
🟩 2014 +40.22%
🟩 2015 +7.52%
🟩 2016 +61.51%
🟩 2017 +11.38%
πŸ”΄ 2018 -7.74%
🟩 2019 +162.61%
🟩 2020 +42.19%
πŸ”΄ 2021 -40.19%
πŸ”΄ 2022 -56.16%

Average Q2 Gain: +52.36% (starting from 2012)
Average Q2 Loss: -34.76% (starting from 2012)

The best-performing Q2 (excluding 2011)was 2019, +162.61%.
The worst performing Q2 was 2022, -56.16%.

Q2 contains what is historically the best month for Bitcoin, May (+50.39% average gain).

But April (10th best performing) and June (8th best performing) are at the tail end of how well they perform on a monthly basis.

From a bearish perspective, June is the 4th worst-performing month for Bitcoin (-17.12% average loss).

How has April performed in the past? πŸ€”

Highlighted: Historical Months Of April From 2010 – 2022. Click to enlarge.

Historically, April’s performance is mixed for Bitcoin, with 7 of the past 13 in the green and 6 in the red. πŸ€·β€β™‚οΈ

πŸ”΄ 2010 -45.18%
πŸ”΄ 2011 -11.34
🟩 2012 +0.82
🟩 2013 +49.66
πŸ”΄ 2014 -1.74%
πŸ”΄ 2015 -3.44%
🟩 2016 +7.35%
🟩 2017 +26.02%
🟩 2018 +33.53%
🟩 2019 +28.67%
🟩 2020 +24.31%
πŸ”΄ 2021 -1.71%
πŸ”΄ 2022 -17.30%

Average April Gain: +25.48%
Average April Loss: -13.45%

In terms of historical average bullish performance, April ranks 10th among the months of the year compared to the others.

April’s historical average bearish performance rank is 6th among the months of the year.

Since 2010, April has closed in the green 9 times vs. 4 times in the red.

The best April on record is 2013, +49.66%.

Except for 2010 (-45.18%), the worst-performing April was 2022, -17.30%.

The month of March is almost done, and unless something dramatic happens (which would be totally normal), Bitcoin will close in the green for the third month in a row.Β 

This raises another question related to cycle analysis – if March ends with a positive gain, what is the frequency of April ending with a positive gain as well? Only 3 times since 2010.Β 

We’ll dive a little more into Q2 and April in next Friday’s Technically Speaking, until then, have a great weekend! πŸ‘‹

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