Technically Speaking – Bitcoin – November 24, 2023

Let’s start with the big boy of the bunch, Bitcoin. 🚀

BTCUSD Monthly Chart – Click to enlarge.

$BTC‘s October close was a big deal because it put Bitcoin back inside the Cloud but, most importantly, above the strongest level of support/resistance in the Ichimoku system, Senkou Span B. 

Depending on how long you’ve been reading the Litepaper, you’ll know that the Cloud is a horrible place. It’s a place where pain, misery, indecision, whipsaws, STDs, Putin, Hamas, fake beef, influencers, and Satan exist. 👿

Between March and mid-October of this year, Bitcoin spent 32 God-forsaken consecutive weeks inside the weekly Cloud – easily the longest period of suck in Bitcoin’s history. Does that mean we’ll likely see Bitcoin spend a big chunk of months in the Cloud? Who knows. 

When December’s monthly candle opens, the Kijun-Sen will end up sharing the same price level as the top of the Cloud (Senkou Span A) at $41,673, creating a fairly strong resistance level. So, the question is, is there enough oomph in the technicals to support a big run-up? There sure is. 

BTCUSD Monthly Composite Index and Detrended Price Oscillator – Click to enlarge.

The Composite Index is not far from its fast or slow-moving averages, indicating momentum is not out of equilibrium. ⚖️

The detrended oscillator shows continued upside momentum after retesting the zero line as support. 

Bullish Ichimoku traders and analysts are looking for one big thing to occur: an Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout. For that to occur, the monthly candlestick needs to be above the Cloud, the Tenkan-Sen, and the Kijun-Sen. 

The Chikou Span also needs to be above the candlesticks and in open space. For that to occur, Bitcoin needs to close a monthly candlestick at $62,000. 

Bears looking for downside options will likely have to wait until there’s a clear monthly close below Senkou Span B and the Tenkan-Sen. In that event, the sell-off could be quite epic. 🐻

Gann – Price and Time 

The October 6 Technically Speaking article focused heavily on Gann analysis to identify important dates and price levels in the future, with a specific focus on utilizing one of Gann’s tools, the Square of 9. 🧙‍♂️

As a refresher, these are the price and time dates identified:

Important Near Future Dates: November 10, 2023, February 7, 2024, and May 7, 2024.

Important Near-Term Price Levesl To Watch: $27,910, $20,510, $36,447, and $46,122.

Watch for major changes if Bitcoin is trading at $27,910 around February 7, 2023.

Watch for major changes if Bitcoin is trading at $36,447 around November 10, 2023.

Watch for major changes if Bitcoin is trading near $56,934 around May 7, 2024.

And here are just some of the other price levels of importance in Gann’s Square of 9: $62,500, $68,644, $75,076, $81,796, $89,041, $97,969, $106,929, $116,964, and $126,736.

TL;DR

Near-term support: $33,354

Near-term resistance: $41,673

Upcoming date of importance: February 7, 2024.

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Technically Speaking – February 21, 2024

My first Litepaper and first Technically Speaking since my short break and the transition to a new newsletter service have me swamped. 🥵

But there was no way I was not going to a Technically Speaking – so we’ll keep this one short and sweet. 

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