Political Turmoil Rattles Investors

Investors have seen worse days, but they’ve also seen better ones. Stocks moved lower today amidst concerns over the Fed Symposium and the political situation in Afghanistan. 

Investors have anxiously anticipated the Jackson Hole Fed Symposium for several weeks. Throughout the pandemic, the Fed printed trillions of dollars to help shore up businesses, the economy, and markets. The symposium will show investors what they can expect from America’s central bank in the months ahead.

However, investors did not anticipate the severity of the political situation in Afghanistan. Blasts in Kabul today killed a dozen U.S. troops and at least 60 Afghan civilians, sending a political shockwave through the markets.

Despite today’s attacks, President Joe Biden reiterated his commitment to a steadfast evacuation of the country. The President indicated that the U.S. would “respond with force and precision” to threats from ISIS-K. You can follow a liveblog of the situation here.

This perfect storm of political variables made today a rainy one for investors. 🌩ī¸ The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) soared 12.2%. Here’s a look at the five minute chart for today:

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And that person was Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who gave testimony as part of the Fed’s semiannual monetary policy report to Congress. The following section in Powell’s prepared remarks sent stocks falling and yields rising. 😮

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Despite last week’s uptick in consumer and producer prices, the Fed is not expected to raise rates. The bond market is currently pricing in a 99% probability that the current rate is maintained, hence the Jay-Z-inspired title of this article.

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What The Fed Did He Just Say?

Despite the market celebrating cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI prints this week, one Fed Governor remains thoroughly unimpressed by the progress. 😒

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that U.S. central bankers “haven’t made much progress” despite embarking on one of the most aggressive rate tightening cycles in history. He noted that important measures and components of underlying inflation have “basically moved sideways with no apparent downward movement.”

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International Central Banks Follow Suit

Yesterday the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 bps and set the stage for ongoing rate increases as it continues to battle inflation. 📰

Today, we heard from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE), which also continued tightening. Let’s see what they had to say.

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