Bitcoin Whales Just Made Their Biggest Bet in 2 Years — Now Hotter-Than-Expected CPI Could Blow It Up

• Bitcoin whales accumulated 140,699 BTC in the previous 30 days, marking the greatest accumulation wave in over two years.
• Markets are awaiting the April CPI data on May 12, with the Cleveland Fed predicting inflation to rise to 3.56% YoY from 3.3%, which may fuel worries about a higher-for-longer Fed.
• Analysts believe a hold above $72,000 to $74,000 maintains the possibility to retest the $96,000 to $100,000 zone, while a break below support may send BTC down to $66,000.

The idea of a hotter-than-expected April CPI reading and the largest on-chain accumulation in over two years are two competing pressures that Bitcoin (BTC) faces as it approaches the week of May 12.

Over the last 30 days, wallets with more than 10,000 BTC gained a net 140,699 BTC, beginning at about $66,000, according to on-chain analyst Murphy. The biggest single-round accumulation in over two years, according to the expert, was "a very obvious building positions move." 

Retail addresses holding less than 1 BTC accumulated another 23,074 BTC over the same window, with concentrated buying clustered around the $66,000, $70,000, and $80,000 levels.

According to Murphy, the present batch is a seasoned group of survivors from several rounds. "The people who haven't been wiped out by altcoins and haven't blown up their futures contracts, and are still alive playing Bitcoin to this day, are all battle-hardened old-timers, sharp as tacks," he said.

CPI Print Looms As The Next Macro Catalyst

The Cleveland Fed's nowcast projects April CPI at 3.56% year-on-year, up from 3.3% in March, with the official release due May 12. A hotter print might put pressure on riskier markets and strengthen expectations of higher-for-longer Fed policy.

However, history indicated that Bitcoin could ignore it. Following the March CPI announcement, Bitcoin surged more than 15%, with institutional buyers, led by Strategy, absorbing more than 500% of the newly minted supply. 

The event is already priced in, according to trader Killa, who identified the $78,600 weekly open as the crucial level to monitor and $74,000–$75,000 as the next negative target if lost. 

Technical Setup: A Bitcoin Bull Case

After weeks of squeezing between $64,000 and $72,000, Bitcoin has broken out of a symmetrical triangle. Bottoming at $62,000, BTC etched rising lows and falling highs into a tight coil before breaking out forcefully above the top trendline on significant volume. 

Bitcoin’s price was trading at $80,899 with the next barrier in the $84,000-$88,000 zone. As long as BTC maintains above $72,000-$74,000 as new support, the trend remains optimistic towards a retest of $96,000-$100,000. A move below $72,000 would negate the breakthrough and pave the way to $66,000. 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ zone, while chatter stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.

VanEck’s Matthew Sigel told CNBC that he expects Bitcoin to revisit its all-time high within a year because of a tight BTC-Nasdaq correlation, a central bank’s recent move to add BTC to its reserves, and reduced sell pressure from miners profiting from AI infrastructure demand.

Read also: Coinbase And Kraken Are Quietly Eating The Crypto AI Citation Market — 22% And Counting

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