VanEck-CEO Jan van Eck Warns Of Bitcoin Down Year In 2026, But Admits He Is Bullish In The Long Term

• Bitcoin could face a down year in 2026, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck said, citing its four-year halving cycle and stalled institutional adoption.
• The Bitcoin adoption story has not changed much in two years, the CEO said, as central banks and corporations remain on the sidelines.
• He said his own positioning was tactical, where he said a seller in January, a buyer this quarter, and different from his conviction over the decade horizon.

Bitcoin (BTC) is likely headed for a down year in 2026, VanEck Chief Executive Jan van Eck said on Thursday, citing Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle and a lack of meaningful progress on institutional adoption, even as he reaffirmed his long-term bullish stance on the asset.

In speaking on Anthony Pompliano’s podcast, van Eck argued that not much has changed in Bitcoin’s adoption story over the past two years. Most inflows have come from financial investors in the form of spot ETFs rather than large institutions, he said, with central banks and corporations largely sitting on the sidelines. "Why would you expect some big change in the price of Bitcoin when nothing has happened," he said.

van Eck based his outlook on Bitcoin’s halving cycle, the roughly four-year timetable that reduces the supply of new coins received by miners. Historically, that pattern has driven a decline in Bitcoin roughly every four years, he said, and 2026 lines up as one of those down years. Against the backdrop of muted adoption, he said, "Why would it break the cycle this year, given that nothing has changed on the adoption side?” while adding that he remains "still long-term bullish."

Bitcoin And Nasdaq Correlation

He also pointed to the growing correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq as a negative. That correlation, which used to be close to zero, has moved up to around 0.6 since the COVID-19 pandemic, he said, a development he dislikes and that he argued is discouraging some sophisticated allocators. 

The model-portfolio gatekeepers at the big wirehouses are open to Bitcoin, especially after the ETF approvals, but the high correlation causes them to cut back on allocations, he said, going with 1% instead of 2% or 2% instead of 4%.

Wirehouses build "model portfolios," which are standardized asset-allocation templates set by the firm's chief investment officer that individual advisors then apply to clients' accounts. 

Bullish On Bitcoin

van Eck also revealed that his own positioning is tactical as well as long-term. "I'm a buyer of Bitcoin this quarter, I was a seller in January,” he said, separating those short-term moves from his conviction with a decade horizon.

Bitcoin’s price was trading at $73,783.12, up over 0.4% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC dropped to the ‘extremely bearish’ zone from the ‘bearish’ zone, while chatter stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.

The conversation also touched briefly on the “silent IPO” thesis, a framing that van Eck and Pompliano credited to investor Jordi Visser, describing the slow transfer of Bitcoin ownership from early retail holders to institutions. 

The handoff and compressing volatility could lay a more stable long-term foundation, even if it strips away the asymmetry that first attracted Bitcoin’s earliest adopters, Van Eck said.

Read also: HYPE Hits 3rd Record High In A Week But Multicoin Capital Co-founder Calls It ‘Binance 2.0 Without A Marketing Team’

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