Anthropic’s S-1 Draws Reactions: Investor Says $100B ARR Could Be Possible By Year-End

• Anthropic could reach $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) rate by year-end, Atreides Management’s Gavin Baker said.
• Anthropic clocked around $16.3 billion in revenue in the six months ended June 30, up from $1.2 billion in the year-earlier period, according to its S-1 it made public on Monday.
• The retail sentiment reading for Anthropic jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘neutral’ the previous day, while the sentiment for OpenAI dropped.

Anthropic opened its books on Monday ahead of its highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO), potentially as soon as next month, drawing broadly positive comments from analysts and investors and contributing to gains in tech stocks.

The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) ended 1.1% higher on Monday and gained 0.1% in overnight trading.

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“I am shocked, absolutely shocked, that Anthropic ARR has likely gone vertical in October after they cut token prices. Except the exact same thing happened for the entire AI market, which is why GPU rental prices have surged while token prices declined,” Gavin Baker, managing partner at investment firm Atreides Management, said in a sarcastic X post.

He said Anthropic could achieve a $100 billion annualized recurring revenue (ARR) rate by the year's end. 

Investment professionals specifically praised its customer base and expansion potential. 

Creative Strategies CEO Ben Bajarin said more than half of Fortune 500 companies already qualify as significant Anthropic customers, but the revenue from them averages less than 0.1% of their expenses. 

“Its ten largest Fortune 500 customers spend more than eight times the cohort average, yet still allocate less than 1% of their expenses to Anthropic,” Bajarin wrote, suggesting room for getting those customers to spend more on Anthropic's AI technology.

Daniel McCarthy, a marketing professor at Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, praised Anthropic’s financial performance and said that falling AI inference costs supports its path to profitability.

“So in sum, explosive growth. Lots of customers. Great funnel. Mostly B2B. Lots of revenue expansion in B2B. Next is ofc "how are margins?". The S-1 was a strong +ive datapoint for me,” McCarthy said in a LinkedIn post.

“Yes, their stated loss is $80.7B for the first half of 2026, but all of that loss is from noncash fair value changes on convertible notes, SAFEs, etc. The company got more valuable, so the paper it issued got more expensive. When you look at the OPERATING business, they were GAAP profitable on an operating basis in Q2, [with an] 8.4% GAAP operating margin. 85.4% gross margin (some caveats here, nothing fatal)! The business is profitable when it's utilized. Cost per token is going down quickly,” he wrote.

Anthropic Unveils IPO Filing

The S-1 published on Monday showed that Anthropic clocked around $16.3 billion in revenue in the six months ended June 30, up from $1.2 billion in the year-earlier period. More than 1,900 customers paid the Claude AI maker at least $1 million over the past year.

The company booked a net loss of $80.7 billion in the first half of the year, largely driven by a $72.4 billion accounting charge related to convertible notes.

Anthropic has not yet disclosed its IPO price range or the number of shares it intends to sell. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which also held lead roles in SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO, will lead Anthropic’s offering alongside 20 other underwriters.

Anthropic will go public on the Nasdaq exchange under the ticker symbol "ANT," according to the S-1. The company reportedly plans to list its shares in the week of Nov. 16, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Retail View On Anthropic

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ANTHZZX jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘neutral’ the previous day, while sentiment for OpenAI (OPEAZZX) shifted to ‘bearish’ from ‘neutral.’

“$ANTHZZX The $80.7B loss is the headline. The compute bill is the story. Most of the first-half loss was non-cash. But we count at least $431B in minimum compute spending and lease payments across future years. Revenue is exploding. What happens if it slows before those bills do?” a trader wrote. 

The private market valuation of Anthropic was $1.4 trillion as of the last check, according to Nasdaq Private Market. OpenAI’s valuation was $1.02 trillion.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.