AVAV Stock Has Slumped Over 40% YTD — Why Raymond James Thinks This Beaten-Down Drone Stock Can Soar 49%

• Raymond James says the recent selloff has created a buying opportunity despite last year’s setbacks.
• The brokerage upgraded AeroVironment to ‘Outperform’ and set a $210 price target.
• Wall Street remains broadly bullish, with 17 of 20 analysts maintaining Buy or Strong Buy ratings.

AeroVironment (AVAV) shares jumped nearly 6% on Thursday after Raymond James upgraded the drone maker to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ and set a $210 price target. The price target implies an upside of nearly 49% from Wednesday’s close.

The brokerage said the AVAV stock’s steep decline over the past year has created a buying opportunity as order momentum and defense demand improve.

At the time of writing on Thursday afternoon, the AVAV stock had pared some of its gains but remained up 5%.

Why Raymond James Is Bullish On AVAV

Raymond James said the firm’s $210 price target is supported by a strong flow of orders, improving backlog quality, strong end-market demand, accelerating product momentum across Autonomous Systems, and a cleaner post-SCAR setup.

The analyst also said the stock has fallen 55% since March as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) estimates reset materially lower, adding that consensus expectations are now “significantly de-risked,” according to TheFly.

Raymond James added that AeroVironment’s bookings are beginning to improve, with its backlog poised to resume growth. The firm believes the company has its “most constructive estimate setup” since 2024 and said the stock's risk-reward has turned “decisively positive.”

A late-2025 government shutdown halted funding and prompted AeroVironment to lower its fiscal 2026 guidance. The company also lost a U.S. Space Force contract in March to build new antennas for aging military satellites.

New Opportunities Strengthen Bull Case

The outlook has improved after the U.S. Army disclosed it is negotiating its Enduring High Energy Laser program with AeroVironment, representing a potential $500 million opportunity, according to Raymond James. The company has also secured a large, flexible domestic security contract worth roughly the same amount.

Raymond James believes AVAV’s order book can grow 20% quarter over quarter, making it an industry leader in countering drone swarms.

“AV is one of the cleanest ways to invest in the modernization of warfare, with exposure to nearly every major defense growth vector," Raymond James said, according to a report in CNBC. “We see a long runway for revenue growth, expanding margins, and increasing cash generation.”

AVAV Stock: What Stocktwits Retail Sentiment Says

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for AVAV was ‘bearish,’ while message volume was ‘low’ at the time of writing.

The Raymond James upgrade is broadly in line with Wall Street sentiment. According to data from Koyfin, 17 of the 20 analysts covering AVAV rate it ‘Buy’ or ‘Strong Buy,’ while three rate it ‘Hold.’ The 12-month average target on the stock is $231.68, representing a potential upside of around 64% from Wednesday’s close.

AVAV shares have lost around 41% year-to-date.

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