US-Venezuela Standoff: ‘Big Short’ Investor Michael Burry Sees Opportunity In These Oil Stocks

• Burry owns Valero Energy stock and said he would hold it long-term following recent developments in Venezuela.
• The U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro for drug export-related offenses, and has indicated plans to run the country’s oil industry. 
• Amid spiking interest in U.S. refiners and related oil firms, Burry also highlighted PBF Energy and HF Sinclair as potential beneficiaries.

“The Big Short” fame Michael Burry weighed in on the Venezuela crisis and the oil companies he thinks could benefit from this geopolitical shock in his latest Substack newsletter, published on Monday. 

The ace investor gave a vote of confidence to Valero Energy Corp., a stock he has owned since 2020, and to smaller refiners such as PBF Energy and HF Sinclair as potential beneficiaries, as the U.S. plans to take over Venezuela's oil industry.

Burry’s Comments

“Realize that many Gulf Coast refineries were purpose-built for Venezuelan heavy crude,” Burry wrote in his blog. “So they have been running with suboptimal feedstock for years. This will, in time, produce better margins across jet fuel, asphalt, and diesel ... I have owned Valero since 2020, and I am more resolved to holding it even longer after this weekend.”

The comments from Burry, best known for predicting the 2008 housing crisis before others, come after U.S. President Donald Trump urged U.S. oil companies to consider investing in Venezuela following the removal of President Nicolas Maduro.

Oil-rich Venezuela, a founding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), produces extremely heavy crude, and only a handful of refiners can process it efficiently. Valero Energy is one of them.

Several Wall Street analysts recently backed Valero, prompting a 9.2% surge in the company’s stock on Monday. The stock has gained over 45% over the past 12 months, compared with 8.4% for PBF and 39.6% for DINO (HF Sinclair). 

Currently, just over half of the analysts covering Valero have a ‘Buy’ or higher rating; 1/14 has a ‘Buy’ rating on PGF, and 8/16 have a ‘Buy’ or higher rating on DINO.
 

Analysts Bullish On Valero Energy

UBS said Valero is best positioned among U.S. refiners should Venezuelan supply increase, given its Gulf Coast footprint and ability to process heavy crude at scale, according to a CNBC report published Monday. Raymond James also highlighted Valero Energy, followed by Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66.

The U.S. imported about 135,000 barrels a day from Venezuela in October 2025, roughly 15% of the country’s total output, according to CNBC. Valero Energy, Chevron, and PBF Energy were the largest importers that month, accounting for roughly 37%, 24%, and 28% of U.S. Venezuelan crude imports, respectively, according to data from Mizuho. 

JPMorgan analysts, however, cautioned that details of the future of oil operations in Venezuela remain scarce.

Trump has also indicated plans to take over Venezuela’s oil industry and potentially improve or redevelop it. The country's oil infrastructure has deteriorated for years, creating the potential for U.S. oilfield services companies to enter. 

Burry said he also owns Halliburton and sees potential upside for Schlumberger and Baker Hughes, which could be tapped to help rebuild pipelines and refineries.

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