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BlackBerry hasn't made a phone in years, but the stock still knows how to make headlines. Shares of the Waterloo, Ontario-based company have roughly doubled over the past year, a sharp recovery for the once-iconic smartphone maker whose stock peaked near $147 in mid-2008. The rally reflects growing investor focus on BlackBerry's reinvention as a software company, anchored by its QNX real-time operating system for safety-critical systems and its secure communications business.
But CEO John Giamatteo has a message for investors tempted to file the company under the AI hype category: don't. BlackBerry is deliberately cautious about AI in its core products, and Giamatteo believes the next leg of growth will come not from generative AI but from physical AI and robotics.
In a recent CNBC interview, Giamatteo described a company that has quietly rebuilt itself around QNX, which he called "the operating system of the car." Of the roughly 90 million vehicles manufactured annually, about 25% use advanced software technologies such as digital cockpits and advanced driver-assistance systems. BlackBerry claims roughly 95% market share in that advanced segment, with partners including Nvidia, Qualcomm, Arm, Texas Instruments, and Intel standardizing on QNX.
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When the conversation turned to AI, Giamatteo drew a deliberate line between where BlackBerry embraces the technology and where it holds back. "We're a little bit careful about how much AI we actually put into the code of our products," he said, a stance rooted not in skepticism but in the nature of what QNX does. The operating system runs software inside cars, robots, and other machines where failure is not an option. "Blue screening in a robotaxi is not an option," he said.
That doesn't mean BlackBerry is avoiding AI altogether. Giamatteo said the company uses it heavily behind the scenes — to test products, accelerate integration work, and shorten time to market — while keeping it largely out of the safety-critical code itself.
Giamatteo said the robotaxi industry is still in its “little early days,” adding that he doesn't expect the technology to "completely disrupt the industry in the next 12 to 18 months." But he framed it as a long-term wave that BlackBerry is positioned to ride alongside the chipmakers, automakers, and tier-one suppliers it already works with.
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Beyond robotaxis, he pointed to a broader category he called "physical AI" — an umbrella term for hardware that reasons and acts in the real world, from warehouse robots and autonomous forklifts to surgical robotic arms. Giamatteo revealed that BlackBerry has more than $950 million in QNX backlog, most of it still automotive, but the physical AI segment is growing fast. "It's one of our fastest-growing businesses inside the QNX portfolio. We don't talk that much about it, but we probably should," Giamatteo said. On humanoid robots specifically, he was candid about the timing: "I would say humanoid robotics is probably in the first inning."
The strategic focus on physical AI has been a consistent theme on earnings calls throughout 2026, with Giamatteo repeatedly citing the strongest robotics and industrial automation pipeline yet, determinism and safety certification as key differentiators versus probabilistic AI, and the company's automotive track record as a proving ground.
Jan Burian, research director at ARC Advisory Group, lent outside support to the thesis, writing on LinkedIn that "the software layer underneath autonomous machines could become equally important" to the humanoid hardware and foundation models drawing most of the attention.
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Morningstar acknowledged the physical AI opportunity in June but said the stock’s valuation was stretched following an earnings surge. The firm modeled high single-digit long-term growth for the company overall — with double-digit growth for QNX and low growth for secure communications — and projected non-GAAP operating margin expanding to 30% by fiscal 2031 from 17% in 2026. "Investors have to expect better to buy in today," Morningstar added.
BlackBerry stock edged 0.4% lower overnight heading into Wednesday, with quarterly results roughly a month away. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment remained in 'bearish' territory despite the stock having accumulated more than 150,000 followers on the platform. Several traders cited recent technical breakdowns as a concern. Of eight analysts covering BB on Koyfin, six recommend either 'Buy' or 'Hold.'
BB stock has gained 105% year to date, handily outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes.
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