XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

My bear thesis right now is $XLF and banks and overall consumer health and spending. Making deals with 10Y moving so quickly is tough. Lots of capital out there but it’s a big concern and wealth disparity and inequity is unreal. Banks at 200dma level and still can recover but if major index’s fail these new highs I think we could be due for more of slow grinding correction.

$XLF Fed Chair Warsh spoke last week and mentioned that 75% of the people at the Federal Reserve don't work directly on Monetary Policy.

While the focus has been on the AI trade, one of the undercurrents that matters more is the credit spread between government and corporate bonds. Couple that with $XLF Financials and $KRE regional banks, the picture becomes a little clearer. For 3 years, easy credit conditions have boosted the Financials Sector and regional banks. But as the riskier tranche of bonds approaches 15 on the spread, we are closer to the corporate bond canary entering a suffocating level. It's not the direct exposure that should keep us up at night, but the indirect. We have historical precedent that shows once this threshold (15 on the CCCs) is reached, the higher-quality bond spreads follow suit. This, in turn, places downward pressure on the Financial Sector and Regional Banks. Tune out the noise of AI and focus on the important driver: credit. That is the adult in the room.

$XLF After sliding entire month of Sept. and dropping under all key 20, 50, 100, and 200 MAs, the financial are making a comeback. XLF is now above 200 and 20 MAs, looks poised to clear 100 MA soon. RSI strengthen to 51 and MACD made bullish crossover and it's widening the gap. These are top XLF holdings: • Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B): ~12.57% • JPMorgan Chase & Co. ($JPM): ~11.42% • Visa Inc. ($V): ~8.75% • Mastercard Incorporated ($MA): ~6.34% • Bank of America Corp. ($BAC): ~4.55% • The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS): ~3.36% • Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC): ~3.16% • Morgan Stanley (MS): ~2.88% • Citigroup Inc. (C): ~2.70% • American Express Co. (AXP): ~2.11%

$XLF shows 5 swing up from October low and the ETF likely see further upside to end 7 swing. Next support area comes at $54.3 - $54.8 #elliottwave

$XLF The Financial Sector ETF broke out of its current down trend. Bulls will be looking for constructive price action in the week ahead. #IBDPartner

$XLF Needs to find bottom here imo. Weakness in financials, industrials, $ITB will eventually have an effect on all other pockets of the market imo.

More than half of last month's undiscovered breakouts from were in the Financial, Health Care, and Industrial sectors. $XLF $XLV $XLI h/t Stocktwits MCP

$XLF $AXP $NU Financials, week of Oct 19: 47 companies had notable news (64 filings and releases). 🤝 Deals were a big theme this week: 9 companies had deal news in 13 filings, and 6 of those were labelled good for holders 🚀 American Express, the card company, raised its 2026 adjusted profit guide to $17.60-$17.90 a share, 14%-16% above 2025's $15.38 👤 Nu Holdings, which runs the digital bank Nubank, said tech chief Eric Young is leaving, and founder-CEO David Vélez will run tech for now ⚠️ It is Nu's second tech chief change in about 14 months, six weeks into its US launch, so watch who is named after Young leaves on November 12, 2026 ⚠️ Soluna, a green data center builder, could owe Applied Digital up to $45M, about a third of its market value, if their Texas AI site deal fails, with a first deadline of December 1, 2026 ⚠️ On the bad side, 4 other filings and 1 on new shares or notes were labelled bad for holders, and 1 company had debt trouble

$XLF from hourly perspective, capitulation ahead and then sttrong V-shaped bounce into November

$XLF weekly: initial rejection in a previous distribution zone. This happened in early 2025 and early 2026, with a striking resemblance to today. Tech and emerging markets are the first dominoes. Now we need to see it topple financials for the big sell-off. $SPY $QQQ

All the $XLF banks pumping this bs deserve all to go down on financial fraud and broke the crooks won't stop crookijg until someones head is accountable $SPY

$XLF $FAS Financials tanked at market open, but they are all rebounding back to HOD at the moment. $BAC $COF $SPY

FISV, NU, LPLA: Analyst Picks Top 3 Financial Stocks In ‘Forgettable Year’ For Sector $XLF $SPY $LPLA $FISV $NU https://stocktwits.com/news/equity/markets/fisv-nu-lpla-analyst-picks-top-3-financial-stocks-in-forgettable-year-for-sector/cZxWWJvRBqt

📉 $XLF — Financials Look Ready for Another Leg Lower Group 3 Post-Market 1H Update: XLF remains Turning Down below 54.29. Wave 4 appears complete, while the new bearish cycle is developing with ((i))–((ii)) already in place. 🎯 Expected path: decline in ((iii)) toward the 52.5 area → corrective bounce in ((iv)) → another push lower in ((v)) to complete the sequence near 52.2. 🔑 Key level: 54.29 #XLF #Financials #ElliottWave #ETFs #Trading

$XLF $LYG $MSTR Financials, week of Oct 26: 50 companies made news worth knowing. 📈 Earnings reports led the week: 22 of the 50 companies put out 33 results reports, and 23 of them are good for holders, with only 5 bad 📈 Lloyds, a big UK bank, said Q3 pre-tax profit rose 99% to £2,332m, but last year's quarter carried an £800m car-loan charge, and against Q2 profit rose just 3% 👤 Strategy, the biggest company holder of bitcoin, said its finance chief leaves on November 5, with a new one starting January 1, 2027 ⚠️ Strategy's $19.53B Q3 profit came from a $20.91B paper gain on bitcoin, on just $125.4M of revenue, so its earnings follow the bitcoin price ✂️ 1 company cut its outlook, in 2 reports that are both bad for holders

$XLF weekly rejecting in the bearish imbalance and the 50-61.8 fib retracement level. Will this be the zone where the month's rally be turned into a dead cat?

$XLF continues to favor the downside after completing wave (X) at 56.72. Following the completion of waves (i) and (ii), wave (iii) is now underway, and any corrective rallies should fail below the 56.72 invalidation level before the decline extends further. Group 3 Post- Markets 1H charts have been updated and ready for viewing. #trading #Elliottwave

$XLF 4H chart indicates wave (X) corrective rally has ended. As long as 58.62 holds as resistance, the decline should extend toward 50.87-47.29, where buyers are expected to re-emerge and trigger the next leg higher. Group 3 4H charts have been updated and ready for viewing #trading #Elliottwave

This is an absurdly large bet on $XLF but its for 2028.. $9.4 MILLION on the Dec. 15th 2028 60 calls.