CCL Stock Traders Stare At Sixth Red Week: Analysts Predict Weak Outlook On High Fuel Prices Ahead Of Q3 Earnings

• Stifel cut Carnival’s price target to $35 from $37 but kept a ‘Buy’ rating, saying recent weakness already reflects softer Q4 yields.
• The firm said the stock’s weakness creates a potential buying opportunity ahead of earnings. 
• Barclays cut Carnival’s price target to $33, warning fuel costs could pressure 2026 guidance.

Carnival Corp. (CCL) stock is on track for a sixth straight weekly decline as investors brace for third-quarter (Q3) results. Analysts at Stifel and Barclays recently cut their price targets, citing Caribbean pricing pressure and elevated fuel costs that could weigh on Carnival’s fourth-quarter outlook and fiscal 2026 earnings guidance. 

Carnival stock traded over 1% higher overnight, ahead of Thursday. The stock has declined nearly 2% so far this week. 

Stifel Sees Cuts Carnival’s Price Target But Sees Opportunity

Stifel reduced its price target for Carnival to $35 from $37 but maintained a ‘Buy’ rating. The new price target still implies a 56% upside to the stock’s last closing price. The firm said investors appear to have already factored in weaker-than-expected Q4 yields, particularly as Caribbean cruise pricing faces pressure closer to departure.

Stifel analyst views the recent decline in Carnival shares as “an interesting buying opportunity heading into their late-September print.”

Barclays Takes Cautious View On Carnival

Barclays analyst Brandt Montour also lowered his price target for Carnival to $33 from $35 while keeping an ‘Overweight’ rating. The adjustment came as part of Barclays’ preview for Carnival’s Q3 results.

Barclays expects Carnival to deliver a modest earnings beat, while projecting that the company will maintain its existing outlook for Q4 yields. At the same time, the firm anticipates Carnival could reduce its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance because of current fuel prices.

Escalating Middle East tensions created severe energy market volatility, driving fuel costs up by nearly 30% for Carnival in Q2, with fuel prices per metric ton surging compared to the prior year.  At the time of writing, Brent crude futures expiring in November were at $105.83 a barrel, while WTI crude futures expiring in October were at $102.35 per barrel. 

Carnival is slated to report Q3 earnings on Sept.29, giving investors a fresh look at bookings, yields, fuel costs and expectations for fiscal 2026. According to Fiscal.ai data, analysts see $8.4 billion in revenue and $1.35 per share in earnings. 

CCL Stock: Retail View 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the stock remained in ‘neutral’ territory. The stock saw a 575% surge in message volume over the past month, with a 0.1% gain in watchers. 

A user said, “While several analysts have lowered price targets (to prices we would jump for joy to have) nobody has changed their position. Its still a buy or worst case, a hold.  This tells me they are pretty much expecting earnings to be good.”

Another user said, “USO down over 3% and we're red because now its rate hikes that are going to sink us. One way or another we've had it, gents.”

CCL stock has declined 26% year-to-date. 

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