Citi CEO Jane Fraser Sees US Dealmaking Rebound Amid Fading Recession Signs, But Says ‘Not Everything Is Rosy’

Citigroup Inc. CEO Jane Fraser reportedly stated that dealmaking is seeing a rebound as U.S. companies are gaining confidence from clearer policy signals, amid easing concerns of a recession.

Fraser told Bloomberg TV that the Wall Street lender’s clients have become “much more active” in capital markets, investing and dealmaking after greater clarity on taxes, tariffs, and deregulation. “Our client base now is really starting to act with confidence.”

Mergers and acquisitions dropped sharply during the initial months of the year after Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs upended global markets. However, Citi and its peers saw a boost in dealmaking after Trump paused the tariffs and struck several preliminary trade deals.

According to Dealogic data, U.S. investment banking revenue is up 12% to $34.8 billion year-to-date (YTD), compared with the same period a year earlier. Citi itself has logged in dealmaking $3.3 billion in revenue.

However, Fraser warned that “not everything is rosy,” and added that Citi was closely monitoring the labor market. Earlier this week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics sharply reduced its annual job growth estimates, marking another sign of a slowdown in the labor market.

The Citi chief still expects the world’s largest economy to avoid a recession. Other banking executives have also warned that the U.S. economy is not out of the woods. UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti said on Thursday that the impact of global tariffs on the U.S. economy is still not clear, which makes it difficult to chart the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits about SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was in the ‘neutral’ territory at the time of writing. At the same time, traders were ‘extremely bearish’ about the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) ETF, which tracks the top 100 Nasdaq-listed firms.

Businesses are now eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s policymakers’ meeting next week, where the U.S. central bank is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point cut.

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