- U.S. stock futures initially rose after Trump delayed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.
- Oil prices dropped sharply, with WTI falling about 10% and Brent sliding nearly 11% following the announcement.
- Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to constrain output despite limited tanker movement resuming.
U.S. stock futures reversed early gains late Monday after Iran denied President Donald Trump's claims of "productive conversations" with Tehran, dousing optimism that had briefly lifted markets following his decision to delay planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.
As of 10:30 p.m. ET, Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.7%, while S&P 500 and Dow futures fell 0.6%, giving back gains logged earlier in the evening.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was ‘extremely bearish’ amid ‘high’ message volume, while sentiment toward the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) was ‘bearish’ amid ‘high’ message volume.
US Market Drivers
Markets reacted after Trump said the U.S. and Iran had held talks toward resolving hostilities and that he had ordered a five-day postponement of planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure while discussions continue.
“I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” Trump said on Truth Social.
Trump later said both countries “want to make a deal” and that talks would continue through the week, adding oil prices could “drop like a rock” if an agreement is reached. However, Iranian state media later denied that direct talks had taken place.
The announcement triggered a sharp rebound across risk assets. S&P 500 futures briefly jumped more than 2.5% shortly after the post.
West Texas Intermediate crude dropped nearly 6% within minutes and later settled down about 10% near $88.13 per barrel. Brent crude slid nearly 11% to close around $99.94. Despite Monday’s sharp drop, U.S. crude remains more than 30% higher this month.
In the previous session, Wall Street posted its strongest advance since early February, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising more than 1,100 points at intraday highs while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each climbed more than 2% at their session peaks, rebounding from levels that had left the Dow and Nasdaq close to correction territory through Friday and the S&P 500 notably below recent highs:
| Index | Move | Close |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 1.38% | 46,208.47 |
| S&P 500 | 1.15% | 6,581.00 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 1.38% | 21,946.76 |
Earlier Monday, traders also flagged unusual bursts of activity in both equity and oil futures shortly before Trump’s announcement. The Kobeissi Letter said on X that $1.5 billion in notional S&P 500 futures and about $580 million worth of oil futures contracts traded minutes before the post, moves that may have generated more than $100 million in profit within about 20 minutes.
The latest developments followed a weekend escalation in which Trump warned Iran it could face strikes on energy infrastructure within 48 hours if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened. Iran responded that it would target U.S. regional infrastructure if attacks occurred, raising fears of deeper supply disruptions through the key shipping route.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily constrained, forcing Persian Gulf producers to scale back output by millions of barrels per day even as a small number of tankers have recently begun leaving the region, according to Bloomberg.
Separately, The Kobeissi Letter said on X that short positions in Brent crude futures held by producers, refiners and commercial users have surged to a record $193 billion, more than doubling since the start of the year and exceeding levels seen during the 2022 energy crisis, suggesting companies are locking in prices above $100 per barrel to secure forward revenues even if prices fall later.
Trending Stocks To Watch On NYSE, Nasdaq
Fundrise Growth Tech Fund (VCX): The stock jumped 25% in after-hours trading after the Fundrise Innovation Fund announced an investment in Erebor Bank, a newly chartered national lender founded by Oculus co-founder Palmer Luckey to serve startups and technology companies following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
Micron Technology (MU): The stock rose slightly in extended trading after falling for a third straight session Monday, with its addition to the S&P 100 taking effect before the open as part of S&P Dow Jones Indices’ quarterly rebalance.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX): The stock jumped 11% in after-hours trading as retail sentiment hit its strongest level of 2026 and message volumes surged, fueling takeover speculation after a Betaville alert suggested a U.S.-based biopharma worth more than $15 billion could be circling the company.
Caledonia Mining (CMCL): The stock rose 4% on Monday, snapping a four-session losing streak after reporting preliminary FY2025 results showing revenue rose 46%, EBITDA more than doubled on the back of higher gold prices and stronger operating performance.
DraftKings (DKNG): The stock rose nearly 1% on Monday after a bipartisan Senate effort to curb unregulated prediction-market sports wagering was seen strengthening the regulatory position of licensed sportsbooks, alongside optimism around the company’s planned “Superapp” growth strategy.
How Global Markets Are Performing Today
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note swung as traders digested developments around the Iran conflict, initially falling after Trump delayed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, then rising to 4.39%, its highest level since July last year, before easing back to around 4.33%.
Gold traded near $4,427 an ounce after stabilizing following its longest losing streak since 2023, while silver rose toward $69.6.
Asian markets were higher on Tuesday, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rising nearly 1%, while shares in Japan and Australia opened higher.
Among the catalysts for Tuesday are revised fourth-quarter U.S. productivity data, S&P Global flash U.S. services PMI for March, S&P Global flash U.S. manufacturing PMI for March, and remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr.
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