- Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.4%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% and Dow futures slipped 0.2%.
- WTI surged as much as 6.3% to $71.23 and Brent ended near $78 after threats to the Strait of Hormuz.
- Defense and energy firms, including Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Exxon Mobil and Chevron led gains on Monday.
U.S. stock futures edged lower Monday night as traders weighed escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, surging oil prices and shifting rate-cut expectations after a volatile rebound session.
As of 7.45. p.m. ET, Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures were down by 0.3%. Dow futures were down 0.2%.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was ‘neutral,’ the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was ‘bearish,’ and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) was ‘extremely bearish,’ with all ETFs in the ‘high’ message volume zone.
US Market Drivers
Futures fell after a dramatic Monday in which stocks rebounded from steep intraday losses tied to widening hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.
The S&P 500 ended Monday up 0.04% after falling as much as 1.2% earlier in the session. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.4%, reversing a drop of as much as 1.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%, but had been down nearly 600 points at its low.
The rebound came as U.S. crude prices retreated from session highs, easing immediate concerns about a deeper economic shock. Still, oil markets remained volatile. West Texas Intermediate jumped as much as 6.3% to settle at $71.23, while Brent crude ended near $78, up nearly 8%, after an Iranian Revolutionary Guard adviser warned forces would “set fire to any ship attempting to pass through” the Strait of Hormuz.
The chokepoint handles roughly a fifth of global oil flows, and tanker traffic has slowed sharply amid security fears.
The conflict intensified after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over the weekend. U.S. President Donald Trump said the military operation was the nation’s “last, best chance to strike” and that the U.S. would do “whatever it takes,” projecting the war could last four to five weeks, or “far longer than that.”
Energy infrastructure across the region has been targeted, with Saudi Aramco halting operations at its Ras Tanura refinery following a drone strike and Qatar suspending production at the world’s largest LNG export facility after an attack.
Traders are now fully pricing in a first Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with expectations for additional cuts in 2026 fading.
Defense and energy stocks led gains Monday, with Northrop Grumman rising about 6% and Lockheed Martin climbing more than 3%. Energy majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron also climbed. Nvidia rose nearly 3% and Microsoft gained 1.5%, helping stabilize the broader market. Just four of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors closed positive, including energy, industrials, technology and real estate.
Carson Investment Group said on X that “the headlines from the Middle East are heavy, but the market’s reaction has been measured so far.” The firm noted that geopolitical events “rarely end bull markets,” adding that near-term volatility is the “price” of entry and said recoveries are often swifter than expected.
The research firm said February already showed a “risk-off” move, with energy and utilities leading, gold up 13% year to date, and small caps and Bitcoin under pressure, suggesting some of the conflict was partially priced in. “We aren't changing our base case for a 12-15% S&P 500 return in 2026. Seasonality is tough in early March, but data suggests staying the course,” Carson said.
Trending Stocks To Watch On NYSE, Nasdaq
Battalion Oil (BATL): Shares surged 123% on Monday, hitting their highest levels since November 2022, and jumped more than 35% in extended trading, as oil spiked on Strait of Hormuz closure fears. Stocktwits sentiment was in the “extremely bullish” territory amid “extremely high” message volume.
Poet Technologies (POET): The stock rose more than 12% in regular trading and added over 4% after-hours following Nvidia’s partnership with Coherent to advance optics technologies for AI data center infrastructure.
MongoDB (MDB): Shares tumbled more than 24% in extended trading despite topping fourth-quarter (Q4) earnings and revenue estimates, as investors reacted to its first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) guidance of $1.15 to $1.19, which came in below expectations.
Gorilla Technology Group (GRRR): The stock gained over 1.5% after-hours following record full-year 2025 revenue of $101.4 million and adjusted EPS of $0.89, while highlighting a $7 billion pipeline tied to AI and GPU infrastructure opportunities.
Indonesia Energy Corp (INDO): Shares hit their highest levels since October 2022 during Monday’s session as escalating Middle East tensions and threats to the Strait of Hormuz boosted expectations for sustained oil price strength.
How Global Markets Are Performing Today
In broader markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stood near 4.03%, while gold traded around $5,343 an ounce after rising for a fifth straight day. Silver hovered near $89.87, with platinum and palladium also higher.
West Texas Intermediate crude was slightly lower near $71 a barrel in early Asian trade after Monday’s surge, while Brent held near $78.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.75% to 808.04. Shares in Japan declined, while Australian markets opened lower. However, Hong Kong futures pointed higher and South Korean markets are set to resume trading after a long weekend.
Among the catalysts for the day are New York Fed President John Williams' remarks, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid's speech, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's interview. Investors are also awaiting quarterly earnings from CrowdStrike and Target on Tuesday, with results from Broadcom and Costco due later this week.
On the economic front, vehicle sales data are expected on Tuesday, mortgage applications on Wednesday, import prices on Thursday, and the U.S. employment report on Friday.
For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.