Elon Musk Says SpaceX Could Control Nearly All Orbital Payloads By 2027 — Q2 Data Reveals It’s Already Dominating Chinese Rivals

Elon Musk said SpaceX could account for more than 95% of the world’s payload deliveries to orbit once its Starship vehicle begins flying frequently with cargo next year. 

“Once Starship is flying frequently with real payloads next year, then SpaceX will probably deliver >95% of total Earth payload to orbit, despite others, especially China, continuing to grow. In 2027, maybe as high as 98%,” Musk wrote on X in response to the new second-quarter (Q2) 2025 Global Space Activity Report produced by BryceTech.

The report showed SpaceX far outpaced all rivals last quarter, completing 45 orbital launches, nearly three times more than China’s state-backed CASC, which logged 16. 

Other providers trailed far behind, with Rocket Lab carrying out 5 missions, Roscosmos 3, ULA 2, and 1 launch each by Arianespace, ISRO, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, among others. Of the 1,198 spacecraft deployed worldwide in Q2, SpaceX was responsible for more than 1,000, most tied to its Starlink network. 

The company also led in mass delivery, carrying the majority of the 743,770 kilograms launched to orbit. By country, U.S. operators executed 54 launches in Q2 compared with 19 from Chinese providers.

Earlier this month, SpaceX also achieved a milestone with its ISS mission, launching Northrop Grumman’s new Cygnus XL cargo craft on a Falcon 9 rocket. The NG-23 mission carried over 11,000 pounds of supplies, scientific equipment, and research payloads, including semiconductor crystal growth materials, a UV water sterilization system, and pharmaceutical experiments. 

Captured by the ISS robotic arm on Sept. 17, the Cygnus XL, named S.S. William “Willie” McCool, will stay docked until March 2026.

On Stocktwits, sentiment for SpaceX was ‘bearish’  amid ‘extremely high’ message volume, while rival Rocket Lab scored ‘bullish.’ Both tickers have attracted similar retail interest over the past three months, with RKLB’s followers rising more than 13% and SpaceX’s up 14%.

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