Gold Prices Climbed To 1-Month Highs Before Paring Gains – Why Are Analysts Betting On The Bullion Amid Rising Oil Prices?

• Analysts at TD Securities stated that gold is set to benefit from geopolitical instability, a lower risk appetite, and inflation concerns amid skyrocketing energy costs.
• Disruptions to energy supplies would lift gold by driving oil prices higher and raising inflation expectations, ING said.
• Gold contracts expiring in April 2026 gained 1.8% to $5,343.3 an ounce.

Gold surged on Monday as escalating conflict in the Middle East shook global markets, prompting investors to flee risk assets and pile into traditional safe havens.

The move followed U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend and a wave of retaliatory missile attacks, intensifying fears of a prolonged regional war.

Spot gold (XAU/USD) rose as much as 2.7% to trade above $5,400 an ounce, a one-month high, before easing slightly after the markets opened. Prices were still up about 1% at $5,329.9 at the time of writing. Contracts expiring in April 2026 gained 1.8% to $5,343.3 an ounce.

The bullion had previously hit a record $5,594.82 in late January and is up nearly 25% so far this year, building on last year's strong rally.

Meanwhile, spot silver prices (XAG/USD) erased early gains to trade 3.6% lower at $90.6 an ounce. Futures for April 2026 deliveries slid 2.7% to $90.5 an ounce.

Rising Geopolitical Risks, Central-Bank Buying To Support Prices

Several brokerages said the conflict could provide fresh momentum for gold, as investors reassess geopolitical risks and inflation pressures tied to higher energy prices.

“Gold is set to benefit from geopolitical instability, less risk appetite and inflation concerns amid skyrocketing energy costs,” TD Securities wrote in a note. Speculators, who have been pulling back from the long gold trade in recent weeks, “could see the developments in the Middle East as an opportunity to get back in,” the brokerage added.

“A regional spillover or disruption to energy supplies would materially boost gold through higher oil prices, increased inflation expectations and contained real yields,” ING analysts said in a note according to investing.com.

UK-based SP Angel told Reuters on Monday that the growing geopolitical fragmentation has led BRIC central banks to trim their holdings of dollar-denominated assets in favor of gold, a trend they expect to persist.

Supply disruptions also added to market worries. After retaliatory strikes by Iran, the United Arab Emirates — a major hub for global gold trade — partially closed its airspace, which temporarily curtailed bullion shipments through the region.

Mining Stocks Track Broader Market

Despite the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) trading 1.3% higher, shares of major gold miners Barrick Mining Corp (B) and Newmont Corp. (NEM) fell 1.3% and 2.6%, respectively, tracking broader markets.

At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was down 0.3%, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) fell 0.28, and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) declined 0.33%.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Share

·

Add us on