- Shares traded mostly in the red throughout February, with the lone exception on Feb. 13, when a Super Bowl ad and the confirmation of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as HHS secretary lifted the stock.
- Koyfin data shows a 12-month average price target of $27.46, implying 76% upside.
- Analysts expect Q4 revenue of $617.25 million, with lower EBITDA and EPS.
Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) is heading into fourth-quarter (Q4) earnings with bearish positioning at record levels, following a turbulent February marked by regulatory scrutiny, legal battles, and product reversals tied to its weight-loss drug push.
HIMS Shares Slide Through February
HIMS shares have traded mostly in the red throughout February, with the lone exception on Feb.13, when the stock rose on momentum from the company’s controversial Super Bowl ad. The ad ranked fifth among all Super Bowl commercials in driving consumers to seek more information about a brand.
The stock’s rise was also pushed by a note from Mizuho, which said that the company might also have a friend in Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who was sworn in as the Health and Human Services secretary a year ago. “Our sense (reading in-between the lines), is that the RFK-led HHS will take a fairly lenient stance with respect to” compounders when it comes to weight-loss drugs, Holz wrote, “provided the drugs are seen as safe,” The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a Mizuho note.
The stock has since slid to its lowest level since September 2024, down 1.2% to $15.63 on Friday.
Short Sellers Crowd HIMS Before Q4 Results
Short interest in Hims & Hers stood at about 18.5% as of Jan. 1, but climbed to roughly 33.7% by Monday, Feb. 23, ahead of the company’s earnings release scheduled after market close.
Koyfin analysts expect the company to post revenue of $617.25 million, up from $598.98 million in the previous quarter. However, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are forecast at $60.45 million, down from $78.36 million, while earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) are seen at $11.62 million, roughly flat quarter over quarter. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are projected at $0.19, compared with $0.28 last quarter.
The 12-month average price target on HIMS stands at $27.46, implying a 76% upside from the stock’s last close. Among the 14 analysts covering the stock, two rate it ‘Strong Buy’, one rates it ‘Buy’, nine rate it ‘Hold’, one rates it ‘Sell’, and one rates it ‘Strong Sell.’
HIMS GLP-1 Strategy Unravels Under Regulatory Pressure
At the start of the month, Hims announced the launch of a compounded copy of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill, offering an introductory price of $49 per month, well below the branded drug’s pricing. The company said the compounded pill uses the same active ingredient as Wegovy but features a different formulation and delivery system, targeting patients seeking a needle-free alternative.
The move quickly drew sharp backlash from Novo Nordisk, which said it would pursue legal and regulatory action against Hims. Novo accused the telehealth company of engaging in illegal mass compounding and marketing unapproved knock-off GLP-1 products, calling the practice “dangerous and deceptive.”
Regulatory pressure escalated when the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) warned that it would take “swift action” against companies that mass-market copycat drugs. Additionally, the HHS General Counsel referred the company to the Department of Justice for potential violations of federal drug safety laws. Within days, Hims said it would stop offering the $49 compounded semaglutide pill following discussions with regulators.
Legal Overhang Weighs On HIMS Shares
Novo subsequently filed a lawsuit seeking a permanent ban on Hims’ sales of unapproved compounded GLP-1 drugs, alleging patent infringement and consumer deception. The FDA also warned of hundreds of adverse event reports tied to compounded Semaglutide and Tirzepatide.
Meanwhile, analysts quickly repriced the stock. Citi cut its price target on Hims to $16.50 from $30 and reiterated a ‘Sell’ rating, warning that the company’s GLP-1 strategy was “risky and aggressive.” Bank of America Securities (BofA) lowered its target to $21 from $26 and maintained an ‘Underperform’ rating, citing the risk that regulatory scrutiny could extend beyond oral GLP-1 products to injectables as well.
Deutsche Bank trimmed its target to $31 from $42 while keeping a ‘Hold’ rating, saying Hims remains “under siege.” Canaccord cut its target to $30 from $68 but maintained a ‘Buy’ rating, arguing that the selloff has already removed much of the value tied to compounded semaglutide sales.
Eucalyptus Deal Fails To Lift HIMS Shares
In another move that ultimately failed to lift the company’s stock price, Hims agreed to acquire Eucalyptus last week in a deal valued at up to $1.15 billion, including about $240 million in cash at closing, with the remainder in deferred payments and earn-outs through 2029.
The acquisition is expected to close in mid-2026 and expand Hims’ footprint into Australia and Japan, alongside further expansion in Europe and Canada.
How Did Stocktwits Users React?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for HIMS was ‘neutral’ amid ‘low’ message volume.
One user said, “bad earnings will put this between $11.50-$12.50, somewhere close to 20%. Good earnings can make it go up about 15-20% and put the price around $18.50-$19.50.”
Another user said, “Beat on consensus tomorrow and strong guidance, we are heading back to $30.”
HIMS stock has declined 52% year to date.
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