HWM Stock Sells Off On SpaceX Foundry News, Then Steadies On Deutsche Bank’s Top-Idea Call

• HWM fell 7.5% on Monday after Elon Musk said SpaceX would cast industrial gas turbine blades and vanes in-house, raising concerns that Howmet now has a new competitor in the sector.
• Citi analyst John Godyn put Howmet on an “upside 30-day catalyst watch” on Tuesday while keeping a Buy rating.
• Citi called the Monday slide a “unique and likely short-lived opportunity” to buy.

Shares of Howmet Aerospace (HWM) swung sharply this week, posting their worst one-day drop in 16 months before bouncing on Tuesday and stabilizing on Wednesday, amid concerns about competition from SpaceX and positive Wall Street commentary, including Deutsche Bank naming the company its top original-equipment supply-chain idea.

HWM fell 7.5% on Monday after Elon Musk said SpaceX would cast industrial gas turbine blades and vanes in-house, raising concerns that Howmet now has a new competitor in the sector. The stock then rebounded 4.1% on Tuesday. As of Wednesday afternoon, HWM stock is down 1% and about 5% from Friday’s close.

Latest Bull Case: Deutsche Bank Makes Howmet Its Top Supply-Chain Pick

Deutsche Bank analyst Scott Deuschle named Howmet his top idea in the original-equipment supply chain and kept a Buy rating with a $343 price target on Wednesday. He said the company’s “relative business characteristics warrant a meaningful valuation premium” to peers. Deutsche’s bull case points to 5% upside to Street 2026 earnings estimates, 17% for 2027, 31% for 2028, and 39% for 2029. The firm called the stock’s valuation attractive at current levels.

Monday’s Drop

Howmet is one of a handful of companies that can cast the blades and vanes that sit in the hottest part of a gas turbine. Elon Musk said over the weekend that labor is the bottleneck slowing the deployment of new turbines and that building them at a SpaceX foundry in Texas could bring units online as much as 18 months sooner. Investors feared a captive foundry could pull future orders off Howmet’s books and ease the shortage that has supported prices as AI data centers drive power demand.

Citi: The Pullback Looks Short-Lived

Citi analyst John Godyn put Howmet on an “upside 30-day catalyst watch” on Tuesday while keeping a Buy rating. He said Monday’s drop followed SpaceX’s plan to cast blades and vanes internally, but argued the news “reinforces the critical nature” of Howmet’s parts and shows “exceptional demand.” Citi called the slide a “unique and likely short-lived opportunity” to buy. Other firms, including Bernstein, also treated the move as a buying chance rather than a lasting threat, noting SpaceX is mainly serving its own power needs.

Howmet’s case rests on more than one customer, including GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ansaldo, Solar Turbines, Baker Hughes, and GE Aerospace. Second-quarter revenue rose 24% to $2.55 billion, with adjusted earnings of $1.33 a share. Gas-turbine sales have been among its fastest-growing lines, and the company is adding blade capacity. It also supplies jet engine and airframe parts and has long-term turbine contracts extending to 2030.

How Did HWM Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around HWM stock remained ‘bullish’ over the past 24 hours, while message volume remained ‘high.’

HWM stock has gained 23% year-to-date. 

Read More: ASTS, RKLB, PL Stocks In Focus As Berenberg Sees $1 Trillion Space Economy — Here’s How It Picks The Winners

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