IREN’s AI Pivot Wins JPMorgan’s Vote While MARA’s ‘Capital-Light’ Strategy Gets A Double Downgrade

• JPMorgan sees roughly 48% upside for IREN stock, calling it a “top-tier” neocloud provider. 
• The bank, however, double-downgraded MARA from overweight to underweight, referring to its ‘capital-light strategy’.
• The bank also slashed MARA's price target to $11 from $13.

Bitcoin (BTC) miners are being increasingly valued for what they can do with their power and data center infrastructure, and JPMorgan sees a clear winner emerging. Shares of MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) and IREN Ltd. (IREN) were in the spotlight on Monday after JPMorgan made two conflicting calls on these Bitcoin miners. 

As per theFly, the bank double-downgraded MARA from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Underweight’ and double-upgraded IREN Ltd. (IREN) from ‘Underweight’ to 'Overweight,’ based on how each company was converting its power capacity into AI compute, according to the research note. 

IREN Called ‘Top-Tier’ Neocloud

IREN has developed and runs its own GPU fleet while MARA has retained the land underneath and handed development to a partner. Analyst Richard Choe also raised its price target from $46 to $65 on the IREN stock. Analyst Choe believes “IREN is establishing itself as a ' top-tier ' neocloud provider, backed by its strategic partnership with Nvidia (NVDA).”

IREN's AI Cloud Services business was built on the power and data centers it set up for Bitcoin mining. What sets it apart from most mining competitors is its vertical integration. It owns the land and the connections to the power grid. It also builds and runs the data centers, buys the GPUs, and sells the compute directly to customers. Instead of renting out one layer of the stack, it takes the whole thing.

The firm added that it has made headway in signing customers, while industry pricing has moved up substantially. It sees further upside potential for the stock, improved by the company’s deal signing and 2027 capacity. The bank made similar distinctions in May, maintaining an ‘Underweight’ rating despite raising concerns about the structure of IREN's Nvidia deal.

IREN’s stock was down over 3% in pre-market trade, amid broader market weakness. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around IREN remained in the ‘bearish’ zone, accompanied by ‘low’ chatter levels over the past day.

JPMorgan sees roughly 51% upside for the IREN stock from Friday's close of $43.

As of mid-September, IREN still continues to mine Bitcoin. However, management has said it will wind down its Bitcoin mining business by December 2026.

Why JPMorgan Is Turning Against MARA

JPMorgan also lowered its price target for MARA from $13 to $11. The bank said “other companies offer more direct growth and value accretion from data center opportunities,” while MARA has chosen “a capital-light strategy instead.” 

The bank added that while many of its competitors have pivoted their business models to redirect existing power capacity to high-powered compute, MARA has moved the other way. When the company turned its powered land assets into data center space, it "diluted value creation" from the joint venture strategy.

MARA’s stock fell more than 6% in pre-market trading, along with the broader market weakness, closing at $11 on Friday – the same price target JP Morgan has put in for the stock. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around MARA remained in the neutral zone while chatter stayed at ‘low’ levels over the past day.

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