• MAR and HLT are up approximately 14.5% and 9%, respectively, this year, outpacing both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
• A new industry report suggests hotels in U.S. host cities are seeing underwhelming demand.
• Last month, Hilton CEO Chris Nassetta admitted that the World Cup "doesn't look as strong as what we had hoped."

Marriott International (MAR) and Hilton Worldwide (HLT) are both comfortably beating the broader market so far this year. But with the 2026 FIFA World Cup just weeks away, investors will be closely watching whether the mega sports tournament jointly hosted by the United States adds further legs to the rally or delivers a sobering reality check.

MAR is up approximately 14.5% year-to-date, while HLT has gained around 9% — outperforming the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the BEDZ AdvisorShares Hotel ETF, the sector's benchmark.

Will Marriott Retain World Cup Optimism?

All eyes turn to Marriott on Wednesday morning, when the world's largest hotel chain reports first-quarter earnings before the market opens. Wall Street will be parsing every word of CEO Anthony Capuano and CFO Jennifer Mason's commentary for clues on whether the World Cup tailwind is materializing as promised.

The setup matters a lot. During Marriott's fourth-quarter earnings call, Capuano confirmed that Marriott Bonvoy is the official hotel supporter of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with properties across all 16 host cities. Management indicated that the tournament would contribute 30-35 basis points to Marriott's full-year global RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) growth, a key industry metric measuring a hotel's ability to fill its rooms at a profitable rate, calculated as total room revenue divided by total available rooms.

Capuano was notably upbeat about early momentum when pressed by analysts on the Q4 call. "I happened to be with the FIFA leadership," he said. "I asked them specifically whether they were seeing any hesitancy from inbound international visitors for the World Cup. And these are their words — they were stunned by the volume of ticket requests they've seen from around the world as soon as the website launched. So it's early, but we're feeling really good about the early returns."

Wednesday's call will reveal whether that optimism still holds.

Hilton Already Reported — And Stayed Quiet On The World Cup

Hilton, which reported its Q1 2026 results last month and beat expectations, was conspicuously silent on the World Cup for the second consecutive quarterly earnings call.

The reason became clearer late last month, when Hilton president and CEO Chris Nassetta made a candid admission at a conference in Washington, D.C. The World Cup, Nassetta said, "at this point, doesn't look as strong as what we had hoped."

2026 FIFA World Cup: A 'Non-Event' So Far For Hotels?

Nassetta's admission does not appear to be an isolated concern, going by a report published this week by the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Based on surveys of hoteliers across all 11 U.S. host cities, the report found that anticipated World Cup demand has not translated into strong bookings.

"With just two months until kickoff ... indicators suggest the anticipated economic lift may fall short of expectations. Despite more than five million tickets sold, this demand has not yet translated into strong hotel bookings," the report reads.

Nearly 70% of respondents cited visa barriers and geopolitical concerns (driven by the U.S.-Iran war) as the primary constraints on international visitor demand. In Kansas City, 85%–90% of surveyed hotels have reported booking levels below expectations, trailing even a standard summer with no major events. Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Seattle tell a similar story, with many operators describing the tournament as effectively a "non-event" so far.

"A strong dollar, high airfare costs, and elevated gas prices make the U.S. a more expensive destination compared to past tournaments, while broader international perceptions about affordability and policy unpredictability further dampen enthusiasm," the report reads.

Could Hyatt Be The Surprise Winner?

The most constructive World Cup data point in the hotel sector may belong to the smallest of the three by market capitalization: Hyatt Hotels, which skews heavily toward luxury and full-service properties that are most likely to capture premium demand.

For the current quarter, Hyatt expects global RevPAR growth of around 3%, explicitly crediting the start of the FIFA World Cup in June as a contributing factor. "And that will carry over into July a bit too," CFO Joan Bottarini said on the earnings call.

MAR vs HLT vs H: What Wall Street And Retail Traders Think

Analyst consensus across all three stocks leans bullish, with one clearly leading on the upside. 

On Koyfin, Hyatt carries a consensus 'Buy' rating from 23 analysts, with an average price target that implies a 15% discount to fair value, making it the most attractively valued of the three on a pure upside basis.

Hilton also has a 'Buy' consensus rating from 25 analysts, with an average price target approximately 11% above current levels. Marriott has a 'Buy' rating too, among 26 analysts, but its average price target implies the stock is trading just 5% below fair value.

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits tells a similar story. Hyatt is the only one of the three sitting at 'bullish,' while MAR is 'neutral' and HLT has slipped to 'bearish.'

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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