MRNA Stock: Citi Questions Whether Melanoma Vaccine’s Benefit Justifies Individualized Tumor Harvesting And Manufacturing

• According to The Fly, Citi said some investors were “assigning value to an effective-cure narrative and success across additional solid tumors.” 
• Citi maintained its ‘Sell’ rating on Moderna with an $80 price target.
• According to Koyfin data, 14 of the 23 analysts covering Moderna rate the stock ‘Hold,’ while five rate it ‘Buy’ or ‘Strong Buy’ and four rate it ‘Sell’ or ‘Strong Sell.’

Moderna (MRNA) shares drew investor attention on Friday after Citi called the company’s melanoma vaccine results a “clinically meaningful advance” but questioned whether the treatment's benefit justifies individualized tumor harvesting and manufacturing. 

According to The Fly, Citi analyst Meacham said some investors had been “assigning value to an effective-cure narrative and success across additional solid tumors,” according to The Fly. The firm also maintained its ‘Sell’ rating on Moderna with an $80 price target. This represents over 60% downside from current levels.

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The comments followed Thursday’s share-price decline after Phase 3 INTerpath-001 data leaked ahead of their scheduled presentation at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress.

MRNA shares traded 5% lower in premarket trading, while MRK shares traded marginally lower at the time of writing.

According to Koyfin data, 14 out of 23 analysts covering the stock rate it ‘Hold', whereas five rate it ‘Buy' or ‘Strong Buy’ and four rate it ‘Sell’ or ‘Strong Sell’.

Analysts Weigh In On Moderna’s Trial Data

On Thursday, Bernstein described the results as a “strong Phase 3 result and meaningful validation of Moderna’s individualized neoantigen platform,” but interpreted the share-price decline as a “sell the news event.” The firm has a ‘Market Perform’ rating and a $45 price target on Moderna.

According to The Fly, TD Cowen analyst Tyler Van Buren said the leaked data suggested a “compelling” Phase 3 result, within the “exceptional range” cited by key opinion leaders. However, he said distant metastasis-free survival, with a hazard ratio of 0.62, was below elevated expectations. The firm has a ‘Hold’ rating and a $90 price target on Moderna. 

Separately, Wells Fargo said on Thursday that the recurrence-free survival data exceeded investor expectations, while overall-survival data were not yet mature. The firm said concerns about the data “may be overdone” and maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating on Merck with a $165 price target.

How Retail Views MRNA, MRK

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for MRNA stock turned ‘neutral’ over the past 24 hours, amid ‘extremely high’ retail chatter. Meanwhile, retail sentiment toward MRK turned ‘bullish’, with ‘high’ message volumes. MRNA was also among the platform’s trending tickers at the time of writing.

One Stocktwits user described Thursday’s selloff as a “sell the news” reaction that had become “oversold”.

Another bullish user said MRNA shares were going to “run hard.”

MRNA shares have gained more than 553% year to date, while MRK shares are up over 37% over the same period.

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