Low Volatility, Tight Range: Here’s What SEBI RAs Are Saying About Nifty’s Next Move

Indian equity markets began the week on a cautious note, with the Nifty hovering below 25,500. The GIFT Nifty indicates a subdued start on Tuesday as investors digest the fresh round of tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on 14 countries.

According to analysts, the markets remained in a consolidation mode, but technical indicators continue to favor a bullish structure.

The Nifty 50 traded in a narrow range on Monday, offering limited opportunities for directional traders but a favorable setup for option sellers, observed SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel. With both Calls and Puts witnessing significant value erosion, it was a classic day of premium decay driven by low intraday volatility, he added. 

From the derivatives perspective, 25,500 Call Options saw aggressive call writing, indicating a strong resistance zone in the near term. On the flip side, notable puts writing at 25,300 and 25,400 Put Options signals confidence among bulls in defending these supports. This establishes a tight intraday support and resistance band of 25,300–25,500. 

On the daily chart, the Nifty continues to respect its recent breakout levels. A bullish flag formation is visible, indicating a continuation pattern that suggests a potential breakout to the upside once the consolidation is complete. 

He also noted that the key moving averages are aligned positively, supporting the ongoing bullish structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) held firm above 60, indicating sustained strength with room for further upside. 

Chandel pegged support between 25,300 and 25,200, with resistance between 25,500 and 25,800. A close above 25,500 with volumes could trigger a breakout toward 25,800 in the short term. 

He concluded that as long as Nifty stayed above 25,300, the bullish bias remained intact. Traders should look for a breakout above 25,500 for momentum trades. Until then, the index may continue consolidating in a narrow band.

Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services echoed a similar sentiment, noting that the market remained rangebound within his previously identified support and resistance levels of 25,480-25,430. 

Going ahead, he reiterated his positional stance that the charts looked positive, with prices above the 20-day EMA, indicating a bullish momentum. On the downside, support stands at 25400, 25200, 25100, and 25000, suggesting there is no immediate need for concern regarding further declines.

The appearance of a doji candle at 25,400 on Monday highlights that the index remains in an indecisive mode. For intraday moves, Sharma sees opportunities rising only outside the 25,480-25,430 zone. He believes it is better to wait for a breakout before taking any new positions.

On the upside, Nifty could test 25,550-25,600, but real bullishness is seen above 25,600 and higher.  On the downside, he sees levels below 25,430, which include 25,380, 25,300, and 25,200.

And Prabhat Mittal pegged immediate support for the Nifty at 25,390 and resistance at 25,610, while he placed Bank Nifty support at 56,700 and resistance at 57,300.

The Nifty index has gained 8% year-to-date (YTD). 

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