India Market Watch: Nifty Likely To Make Decisive Breakout This Week, Say SEBI RAs

Indian equity markets will react to better-than-expected GDP data and await the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy decision later this week. Analysts believe that a decisive breakout is likely on the Nifty 50 index. 

SEBI-registered analyst Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services observed that Nifty 50 continues to trade with volatility as all key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the 15-minute timeframe are stuck in a narrow range. 

The technical setup indicated a directional breakout is likely in trade on Monday or later this week. 

Sharma maintains his positional view that the broader market uptrend remains the same if the market respects the 20-day EMA as support. 

He pegs immediate support for intraday trading at 24,73, which has seen previous troughs. If Nifty breaches this level significantly, it may trigger a downside till 24,660, followed by 24,580 and 24,500 respectively.

On the upside, resistance is seen at 24,800. Sharma cautions against initiating long positions below this level. If the Nifty breaks above this, then we can expect gains until 24,880 and potentially above 25,000. 

Options premiums remain in high territory, indicating that sharp moves are likely in either direction. According to Sharma, volatility will likely continue this week unless the Nifty breaks the immediate support or resistance.

Analyst Ashish Kyal highlights that Nifty is likely to see significant moves, with a close above 24,820 pushing the index to 24,900 or higher levels.

He identified support near 24,680; if the index falls below this, we can witness short-term pressure until 24,600 before any recovery. 

Kyal emphasizes the importance of opening-hour moves, with trends emerging around 11.30 am.

Analyst Dipak Takodara identified 25,100-25,150 as immediate resistance, marking the upper boundary of the consolidation zone. Should the Nifty break this level, he sees next resistance at 25,200-25,250, followed by 25,650-25,750.

On the downside, support is seen at the 20-day Simple Moving Average at 24,650 -24,700. Takodara pegs deeper support levels at 24,450-24,500, which aligns with the lower boundary of the consolidation zone, followed by 24,350-24,400 (a previous gap area).

Takodara notes that a sustained breakout above 25,100 – 25,250 could lead to a rally until 25,650-25,750. A breakdown below 25,100-25,250 would continue the current range-bound consolidation.

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