Nifty Watch: SEBI Analysts Eye 24,400–24,900 Range As RBI Decision Looms

Indian equity markets extended their losing streak for the eighth consecutive session, slipping below the 24,600 mark intraday to hit a low of 24,588. Despite ending the September series marginally positive, technical charts show heavy selling pressure at higher levels. 

Investors are awaiting the rate decision from India’s central bank today. Will it be the catalyst for a change in market direction? SEBI-registered analysts shared their Nifty outlook on Stocktwits. 

Trade Setup For October 1

Analyst Mayank Singh Chandel noted that the Nifty index has been struggling around its immediate support of 24,600, which it has defended for the last three sessions but breached intraday on Tuesday. Other technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reflected weakening momentum, with the index firmly in a lower-high, lower-low structure.  Interestingly, he highlighted that the Bank Nifty (led by PSU banks) showed relative outperformance, hinting at sector-specific resilience. 

On the downside, 24,600 remains the immediate base. A decisive breakdown here could drag Nifty toward the 24,400–24,350 zone, considered a crucial support area. On the upside, 24,700 is seen as the first hurdle, followed by 24,750–24,800. Sustaining above these levels is essential for any meaningful pullback. 

Derivatives data suggest a likely range of 24,500–24,900 in the near term. Chandel concluded that the market sentiment remains weak, but given the oversold conditions, a short-covering bounce cannot be ruled out from 24,600 levels. However, he maintained that unless Nifty closes decisively above 25,000, the broader trend will continue to favour the bears.

Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services noted that the monthly expiry was notably muted, with the crucial 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) holding firm around the 24,600 level for three consecutive days, which means investors were attempting to maintain this level. He flagged two scenarios: either the market is preparing for a pullback, waiting for bullish momentum to gather strength before an upward move, possibly triggered by positive news acting as a catalyst. Or if it breaches the 200-day EMA support, selling pressure could intensify. 

For intraday trading, he identified 24,600 as a critical immediate support level. A drop below this could see the index testing the 24,500 to 24,400 range. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 24,680, followed by 24,750, 24,800 and 24,880.

Markets: Where From Here? 

Ashish Kyal stated that the Nifty has maintained the prior high for eight consecutive sessions. He pointed out that the Gann level at 24,728 is acting as a significant hurdle for further upward movement. If the index falls below 24,580, short-term scalping moves towards 24,480 levels can be expected.

Dipak Takodara observed that the Nifty index is weak but not broken. It remains slightly above triangle support, at 24,550-24,500, with a weak RSI. He added that the bulls need to defend this level, as the market bias remained cautious to negative.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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