NIO Stock Braces For Another Monthly Loss As Retail Sentiment Nears Record Low: Can Q2 Profitability Turn The Tide?

• Fiscal.ai expects revenue to surge nearly 69% to 33.60 billion yuan and EBITDA to swing positive.
• Q2 deliveries rose 49% to 107,658 vehicles but missed Nio’s guidance of 110,000 to 115,000.
• Meeting the 2026 target requires 45,789 to 52,389 monthly deliveries through December, versus Nio’s record of 48,135.

U.S.-listed shares of Nio, Inc. (NIO) are heading toward a fourth straight monthly decline as retail sentiment nears record lows, raising the stakes for the Chinese EV maker’s second-quarter (Q2) earnings on Sept.1.

Nio’s U.S.-listed shares have fallen 7% this month but are marginally higher for the week.

NIO Q2 Preview

Fiscal.ai expects revenue of 33.60 billion yuan ($4.99 billion), up nearly 69% from last year. The loss per share is forecast to narrow to 0.31 yuan from 2.07 yuan, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) are projected to swing to a profit of 1.81 billion yuan from a 3.75 billion yuan loss a year ago.

Sequentially, Koyfin expects revenue to climb 33.7% to $4.95 billion and EBITDA to hit $268.75 million. However, the earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) loss is forecast to widen to $93.88 million from $44.77 million. Meanwhile, adjusted EPS is projected to slip from breakeven to a $0.02 loss.

However, Deutsche Bank was more optimistic, forecasting adjusted net income of about 180 million yuan, driven by higher-margin SUVs.

Nio Faces A Steep Delivery Target 

Nio delivered 107,658 vehicles during the quarter, up 49% from the previous year but below its guidance of 110,000 to 115,000. The company had forecast revenue of 32.78 billion yuan to 34.44 billion yuan. Momentum improved through the quarter, with deliveries rising from 29,356 in April to 37,705 in May and 40,597 in June. First-half volume climbed 67.4% to 191,123 vehicles.

The third-generation ES8 accounted for 33,474 Q2 deliveries, or about 31% of the total. The newly launched ES9 contributed 11,703, Firefly delivered 17,589 and Onvo added 29,124, up 70.5% from a year ago.

The premium-heavy mix could help Nio defend margins. In the first quarter, gross margin reached a four-year high of 19%, while vehicle margin climbed to 18.8%, within its full-year target of 17% to 18%. Nio also posted adjusted operating profit of 66.8 million yuan and adjusted net income of 43.5 million yuan, while ending March with 48.2 billion yuan in cash and equivalents.

CEO William Li is targeting 40% to 50% delivery growth this year, implying 456,000 to 489,000 vehicles. Nio delivered 227,057 vehicles through July, leaving 228,943 to 261,943 for the final five months. This requires a monthly volume of 45,789 to 52,389 vehicles, compared with its record of 48,135.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About NIO?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around NIO has remained ‘bearish’ over the past week and currently stands at 27 out of 100, just above its record low of 21 in late July, as 24-hour message volume jumped 23%. 

One user challenged NIO bears, arguing that Q2 earnings are “pretty locked into a range” and, while they “might not be great,” likely “won’t be that bad either.” Pointing to the company’s rapid move from multibillion-yuan losses to near breakeven, rising battery-swap adoption, strong margins and year-over-year growth, the user said there may be “more potential profit in going long rather than short.” 

Another user said the figures most likely to move NIO on Sept.1 would be a higher gross margin, stable operating expenses and strong guidance, alongside robust August deliveries, while flagging rising cash burn.

Nio’s U.S.-listed shares have declined 11% over the past year. 

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