Paul Tudor Jones Draws Apple II Parallel For ChatGPT, Claude Code — Says AI Trade Still Has Runway

• Jones said that the ongoing AI bull run makes him feel like it’s 1999, when the dot-com bubble was about a few months away from its peak in March 2000.
• He said there could be a significant correction in the stock market once the AI bubble bursts after the ongoing ramp is over.
• Jones also noted that the economy could enter an age of abundance by 2030, with robotics potentially becoming ubiquitous by then.

Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones on Thursday compared the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude to the Apple II and the Microsoft PC era in terms of productivity gains.

During an interview with CNBC, Jones reflected on the launches of the personal computer and the internet, saying both sparked productivity booms that lasted roughly four to five-and-a-half years.

“We’re kind of, I’d say, 50 or 60%. If I had to pick a period, we’ve got another year or two to run,” Jones said, referring to the AI bull market’s remaining potential.

Jones Says It Feels Like 1999

The billionaire hedge fund manager added that the ongoing AI bull run makes him feel like it’s 1999, when the dot-com bubble was about a few months away from its peak in March 2000.

“It’s so funny if you kind of compare the multiples and earnings… we’re kinda where we were in October, November of 1999,” he said.

Jones added that, whether viewed through the lens of productivity gains or dot-com-era price parallels, the AI trade still has room to run.

What Happens After The AI Ramp Is Over?

Jones added that there could be a significant correction in the stock market once the AI bubble bursts after the ongoing ramp is over.

“Just imagine the stock market went up another 40%... the stock market-to-GDP [ratio] is going to probably be… 300% to 350%... it will be breathtaking kind of corrections,” he said.

However, he also struck an optimistic tone, saying the economy could enter an age of abundance by 2030, with robotics potentially becoming ubiquitous by then.

Jones’ comments come amid a surge in semiconductor stocks driven by AI demand. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) has surged 65% year-to-date, while stocks such as Intel Corp. (INTC), Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) have hit their 52-week highs over the past few trading sessions.

Jones Downplays Chances Of Warsh Getting Fed To Cut Rates

Jones downplayed the chances that Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh could get the central bank to cut interest rates this year, even as mounting pressure builds ahead of the midterm elections.

He also added that there is actually a case to be made for raising rates, noting that there is a lot of juice left in the economy amid surging AI investments and the federal fiscal deficit running at $1.9 trillion, or about 6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

“I’d be thinking about raising them. I’d want to see the data. But I mean, for sure you’d be thinking about it. And I think he’s going to be constrained before the election,” Jones added.

While the Senate Banking Committee voted 13-11 in Warsh’s favor as the Fed Chair nominee last month, a final confirmation vote in the Republican-controlled Senate is still pending.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 31% over the past 12 months, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is up 45%.

The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) are up 31% during this period.

Also See: Datadog Just Posted Its First Ever Billion-Dollar Quarter — And It’s Not Just AI Fueling The Surge

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