Retail Investors Optimistic Ahead Of Nike's Q4 Report: Forecast, Revival Efforts Key

Retail investors were firmly optimistic heading into Nike's (NKE) quarterly report after the market close on Thursday, with all eyes on the company's forward guidance and updates on its turnaround plan.

Nike's revenue is expected to have declined 15% to $10.7 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of declines, according to analysts' estimates from Koyfin. Adjusted earnings are expected to have dropped 88% to $0.12 per share.

Analysts largely view the said quarter as the lowest point for the business, with expectations of improvement ahead as the company's turnaround efforts start to gain traction.

The sports apparel and footwear brand is focused on clearing inventory ahead of upcoming launches, while anticipating gains from new initiatives—including its renewed direct-selling partnership with Amazon—to materialize in the months ahead.

Nike shares are currently trading at about one-third of their November 2021 peak and are down roughly 20% year-to-date, levels many see as an attractive entry point for a globally recognized brand working towards revival.

According to Koyfin, 19 of 41 analysts have a 'buy' or higher rating on Nike, while 20 have a 'hold' rating.

Analysts expect Nike to offer qualitative expectations for the year ahead, and any comments that point to the timing of a sales inflection will be key.

If its inventory-clearing aims are successful in the first half of the year, Nike should be able to scale innovation and see sales inflect going forward, BofA Securities analysts said.

On Stocktwits, the retail mood shifted to 'extremely bullish' as of late Wednesday from 'bullish' the previous day, and Nike was the fourth-top trending ticker at the time of writing. The stock ended up 1% on Wednesday and rose further after-hours. 

A user said: "Whether it (Nike stock) goes up or down will depend on guidance, which can not be accurately predicted until Trump makes final decisions on Tariffs with China & other asian countries."

Another user said, "If you are bearish here, then you did not STUDY."

Nike is also hosting its Breaking4 event on Thursday, where world champion Faith Kipyegon will attempt to run 1,500 meters in under four minutes. Kipyegon also holds the world record of 4 minutes and 7.64 seconds.

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