Shipping Giant Maersk Lowers Container Growth Forecast As Trade War Clouds Horizon

Danish shipping firm Maersk lowered its 2025 outlook for global container market volume growth after stating that demand over the remainder of the year remains highly uncertain due to tariff policy uncertainty.

The company, considered a bellwether of global trade, lowered its global container market volume growth forecast to -1% to 4% due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. It had earlier projected a growth rate of 4%.

Maersk said that while the global economy entered 2025 on a "solid footing," the trade war and political uncertainty in the U.S. have clouded the horizon.

The shipping giant’s warnings follow a tit-for-tat trade war between the U.S. and China, which have imposed tariffs of over 100% on each other.

While the two countries have recently shown a willingness to begin negotiations, any delay in lowering the tariffs could further harm global trade.
Rival Hapag-Lloyd had sounded the warning bells last month after saying that its customers had canceled 30% of shipments to the United States from China.

“In the latter part of the year, there is, on the one hand, a growing risk that demand could contract, and on the other hand, the possibility that trade rebounds if tariffs are rolled back,” Maersk said.

Its CEO Vincent Clerc told CNBC that the tariffs have primarily been a China-U.S. issue and have not yet contaminated any other trade lanes.

“Unless we find a solution there, then the current level of tariffs is simply prohibitive on both sides for it to really show some recovery. So, quite a targeted impact so far,” Clerc reportedly said.

Additionally, Maersk expects disruption in the Red Sea to continue throughout the rest of the year.

SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN) has fallen 19% this year compared to a 4.8% fall in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and a 6% drop in the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1.

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