SpaceX Is Coming For A $10B Market, Says Jefferies – But How Soon Can It Deliver?

• Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu estimates that the aerospace and industrial gas-turbine engine-products market generated about $10 billion in sales in 2025.
• Despite both SpaceX and Tesla working toward 100 GW of annual solar-manufacturing capacity each, Musk expects natural gas to remain a reliable supplement to solar energy for several years.
• Jefferies highlighted Howmet Aerospace as one of the four established competitors for SpaceX.

SpaceX (SPCX) was in the limelight on Monday after CEO Elon Musk confirmed plans to manufacture gas-turbine blades and vanes at its Texas foundry in a bid to solve a major bottleneck in power generation for AI data centers.

SPCX shares, which were trading 1.3% higher at the time of writing, are on track for their first monthly gain since the June 12 listing.

Jefferies Says SpaceX Products Could Be Four Years Away

Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu estimates that the aerospace and industrial gas-turbine engine-products market generated about $10 billion in sales in 2025. However, the firm’s industry checks suggest SpaceX turbine-related products could still be four years away.

Jefferies added that the market currently has four established competitors: Howmet Aerospace (HWM), Berkshire Hathaway’s Precision Castparts, Consolidated Precision Products and Doncasters.

As of this writing, HWM shares were down over 8% and are on track for their biggest single-day decline in nearly 17 months.

Musk Highlights Limiting Factor In Natural Gas Turbine Production

Responding to an article about SpaceX laying groundwork for a turbine blade factory in Bastrop, Texas, Musk said SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA) are each working toward 100 gigawatts of annual solar-manufacturing capacity. However, he expects natural gas to remain necessary “for several years” as a reliable supplement to solar energy.

According to Musk, casting turbine blades and vanes is the biggest constraint on natural-gas turbine production.

“The limiting factor for nat gas turbine production is casting the blades & vanes. By doing in-house casting at SpaceX, we can accelerate nat gas turbines coming online by up to 18 months, which is a profound game-changer,” Musk said in a post on X.

Technology companies are increasingly turning to natural gas to secure power for AI infrastructure. In June, Microsoft signed a 20-year agreement with Chevron and Engine No. 1 for a West Texas gas-power project.

Meanwhile, SpaceX-owned xAI has reportedly installed far more gas turbines at its Colossus 2 data center project in Tennessee than it has publicly acknowledged, 59 in total, without securing the required federal clean air permits, according to a Reuters report from last month. The move has sparked pollution complaints from residents and environmental groups in the area.

Retail Sees Resistance At $145

Retail sentiment surrounding SPCX on Stocktwits remained ‘bearish’ over the past 24 hours.

One user sees $145 as the key resistance.

Another user expects the stock to climb to $150 over the next few days.

Also read: PCG, EIX Stocks Crash As Wall Street Warns Of Liability Exposure On California’s Latest Wildfire Legislation – Retail Calls Selloff An ‘Overreaction’

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