ASTS Stock Logs Worst Stretch Of 2026 As SpaceX IPO Looms — But One Analyst Sees A 2-Year Edge Over Starlink

• SpaceX plans to debut at $135 per share, implying a $1.77 trillion valuation and raising concerns about capital rotating out of other space stocks.
• Roth Capital took the opposite view, arguing ASTS has a 'better mousetrap' and a two-year lead over Starlink.
• Investors also weighed CTO Huiwen Yao's sale of 40,000 shares worth about $3.85 million.

Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) fell for a fourth straight session on Monday, marking their longest losing streak of 2026 as SpaceX's blockbuster IPO looms, even as one analyst argued that the company still holds a two-year lead over Starlink in the direct-to-device race.

ASTS stock fell nearly 2% on Monday to its lowest levels in nearly three weeks. 

SpaceX IPO Weighs On ASTS

The stock's recent weakness comes as investors weigh whether SpaceX's highly anticipated Nasdaq debut on Friday could divert capital away from other space stocks. SpaceX plans to price its IPO at $135 per share, implying a valuation of $1.77 trillion and making it one of the largest public companies in the U.S.

Freedom Capital Markets chief market strategist Jay Woods called the IPO "a tricky one" and said that investors should "get in it small," while Morningstar recently called SpaceX "significantly overvalued" relative to its own valuation estimates. Meanwhile, a recent Stocktwits poll showed that 51% of respondents planned to avoid the SpaceX IPO altogether, compared with 26% looking to buy for the long term and 23% seeking to trade or capitalize on volatility. 

Barclays Sees Unattractive Risk-Reward In ASTS

Adding to the pressure on AST shares, Barclays lowered its price target on the company to $60 from $65, implying a 35% downside from current levels, while maintaining an 'Underweight' rating. The firm updated its forecasts to reflect launch delays and recent operating results. While Barclays acknowledged that direct-to-device communications could become a major satellite market and that AST is likely to play an important role, it said that the stock's risk-reward remains unattractive at current levels.

On the other hand, Roth Capital said that ASTS remains well-positioned despite increasing competition from SpaceX's Starlink service: "On direct-to-device, Roth believes AST SpaceMobile has a better mousetrap, a roughly two-year head start, and a powerful mobile network operator partner channel relative to Starlink." 

The comments add to concerns among investors over whether SpaceX's massive ambitions in satellite connectivity pose a threat to ASTS' direct-to-smartphone broadband model. Investors also digested CTO Huiwen Yao’s stock sale of 40,000 units on Friday for $3.85 million under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. 

ASTS Keeps Launch Plans On Track

Despite the stock weakness, AST continues to advance its deployment campaign. The company recently confirmed that BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 have arrived at Cape Canaveral and are undergoing final processing ahead of a Falcon 9 launch in mid-June, helping ease concerns after BlueBird 7 failed to reach orbit during Blue Origin's New Glenn Mission-3 launch last month. 

CEO Abel Avellan has reiterated AST's target of deploying 45 satellites this year, with launches expected "approximately every month," while highlighting the company's direct-to-smartphone broadband capabilities, nearly 100 MHz of spectrum access and portfolio of more than 3,800 patents.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS has plunged to ‘bearish’ from ‘extremely bullish’ levels a week ago amid a 166% jump in 24-hour message volume.

One user said, “I wonder how many posts we will see next week to the effect "I sold ASTS at a loss to make it up in the SPCX ipo and now THAT'S down too! What should I do?!?!"

Another user said, “Markets getting trashed because people are building up cash for space x offering. Then they will get burned by chasing it.”

ASTS stock has surged 195% over the past year. 

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