• SpaceX is rumored to target a 2026 IPO at valuations as high as $1.5 trillion, but Palihapitiya says Musk may skip the listing and pursue a Tesla reverse merger instead.
• The idea aligns with Musk’s long-discussed vision of a holding company that houses Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, and The Boring Company under a single cap table, according to angel investor Jason Calacanis.
• Bulls on social media see a merger as a potential turbocharger for valuation, while skeptics point to Tesla’s already stretched valuation and choppy stock performance.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX, already the world’s most valuable space-tech startup, has become one of the most closely watched private companies on Wall Street. And the IPO chatter is only getting louder.

SpaceX was last valued at about $800 billion in December, according to media reports. While the company has not formally announced IPO plans, speculation around a mid- to late-2026 listing has intensified, with rumored valuations reaching a staggering $1.5 trillion.

But venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya thinks the story could take a very different turn.

A Plot Twist?

Speaking on the latest episode of the All-In Podcast with angel investor Jason Calacanis, Palihapitiya floated a contrarian scenario.

“I don’t think SpaceX will IPO. I think it will reverse merge into Tesla,” Palihapitiya said. “I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table.”

Calacanis responded that Musk has long spoken about forming a holding company that could eventually house not just SpaceX and Tesla but also Neuralink and The Boring Company.

IPO Buzz Keeps Building

Despite the reverse-merger speculation, anticipation around a SpaceX IPO continues to build. Musk’s recent social-media hints, heightened market chatter, and growing institutional interest have only fueled expectations.

Hedge fund heavyweight Bill Ackman recently proposed an unconventional, fee-free SpaceX IPO via Pershing Square’s SPARC structure, with Tesla shareholders potentially getting priority access.

Retail interest has surged as well. Over the past year, SpaceX’s watcher count on Stocktwits has more than doubled, while message volume has jumped roughly 1,600% over the past three months.

What Would It Mean For Tesla?

It remains unclear what the real-world impact of a SpaceX-Tesla reverse merger would be, but online speculation has been intense. Many traders believe such a move could supercharge Tesla’s valuation, potentially making it easier for Musk to hit the ambitious performance milestones tied to his historic trillion-dollar compensation package.

Tesla stock, however, has had a choppy start to the year. Shares are down nearly 2.8% year-to-date, with retail sentiment on Stocktwits sitting in ‘bearish’ territory heading into the week.

Valuation concerns persist. Several analysts warn that Tesla trades at a forward P/E of roughly 227x, well above that of traditional automakers. By comparison, Toyota Motor, the world’s largest carmaker by volume, trades at about 13x forward earnings, while the U.S.-listed stock of the largest EV maker in the world, BYD, trades near 19x.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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