SPCX Stock Has Fallen 13% From IPO Price — HSBC Remains Cautious On SpaceX's Moonshot Plans

• HSBC stated in its note that it remains cautious about pricing in futuristic opportunities such as space-based data centers, Terafab and the lunar economy.
• Even after accounting for an innovation premium, HSBC sees a marginal downside from the stock’s current levels.
• A recent Bloomberg report states that SpaceX has started turning away satellite operators seeking dedicated Falcon 9 launches beyond 2028.

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) are down about 13% from the initial public offering (IPO) price of $135, but analysts at HSBC are still cautious about the stock’s prospects.

According to TheFly, HSBC analysts initiated their coverage of SpaceX with a ‘Hold’ rating and a price target of $115, implying a potential downside of about 3% compared to Thursday’s closing price.

SpaceX shares were down 2% in Friday’s pre-market trade.

Why HSBC Is Cautious On SPCX

HSBC stated in its note that it remains cautious about pricing in futuristic opportunities such as space-based data centers, Terafab and the lunar economy. Even after accounting for an innovation premium, HSBC sees a marginal downside from the stock’s current levels.

However, the firm acknowledged that SpaceX remains the clear leader in the commercial space launch market, supported by its strong execution, technological edge and long track record of innovation.

It believes the company is well positioned to benefit from growing demand for launch services and its expanding space ecosystem.

SPCX Begins Turning Away Falcon Customers, Says Report

According to a Bloomberg report, SpaceX has started turning away satellite operators seeking dedicated Falcon 9 launches beyond 2028, paused future reservations for its Falcon rideshare program and scaled back production of some non-reusable Falcon components.

The report also said SpaceX has stopped building some non-reusable Falcon components, including the rocket's upper stage, and is no longer accepting future reservations for its Falcon 9 rideshare program.

However, SpaceX’s plans could still change depending on Starship's development progress. The company is also expected to continue using Falcon 9 for certain missions for NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense.

This comes amid multiple delays in Starship test flights recently, while the launch vehicle remains under development. SpaceX is now scheduled to undertake the 13th test flight of Starship on Friday.

What Retail Traders Think Of SPCX Stock

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around SpaceX trended in the ‘bearish’ territory, with message volumes at ‘high’ levels at the time of writing.

SPCX stock is down 21% year-to-date. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and the Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM) are up 23% over the past 12 months.

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