SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1

Avalanche is a high throughput smart contract blockchain platform. Validators secure the network through a proof-of-stake consensus protocol. It is said to be fast, low cost, and environmental friendly.

Avalanche

Avalanche (AVAX) is trending amid discussions of significant institutional interest, fueled by its potential for Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization and a new ETF filing that includes staking. Despite some investor frustration over recent price action, the community remains highly engaged, emphasizing AVAX's strong fundamentals, unique subnet architecture, and deflationary tokenomics as key drivers for future growth and adoption. The ongoing debate revolves around the disconnect between these bullish developments and current market performance.

Bonk is a dog-themed memecoin on the Solana blockchain, launched on Christmas Day 2022 to revitalize the Solana community following the FTX collapse. Created by an anonymous team of 22 Solana developers and builders, Bonk distributed 50% of its total 100 trillion token supply via airdrop to community members including NFT collectors, developers, and artists.   The project positions itself as "the first Solana dog coin for the people, by the people," explicitly rejecting venture capital backing in favor of grassroots community ownership. What sets Bonk apart from other memecoins is its combination of fair launch mechanics, extensive ecosystem integration, and active deflationary strategy.   Built on Solana, BONK benefits from fast transaction speeds and low fees that make it practical for everyday use. Native products include LetsBonk.fun (a memecoin launchpad that briefly became Solana's market leader in 2025, surpassing Pump.fun with over 78% market share), BonkSwap (a decentralized exchange) and BonkBot (a Telegram trading bot with built-in burn mechanics).   BONK is available across 10 blockchain networks and listed on major exchanges including Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and Robinhood. Governance is handled by BonkDAO, which holds 15% of the token supply and makes decisions through on-chain voting.   The community has organized several major burn events, most notably the December 2024 BURNmas campaign that destroyed 1.69 trillion tokens worth over $50 million. In September 2025, Nasdaq-listed Safety Shot, Inc. formed BONK Holdings LLC and acquired over 2.5% of the circulating supply (valued at $55-63 million), making BONK one of the first memecoins to attract formal corporate treasury adoption. Core contributor Nom was appointed to Safety Shot's board, and the company holds a 10% revenue share in LetsBonk.fun.  As with all memecoins, BONK is a highly speculative asset with substantial volatility. Its value is primarily driven by community sentiment, social media momentum, and meme culture rather than traditional utility.   The anonymous team, while common in the memecoin space, means investors should exercise appropriate caution. Despite these risks, Bonk has established itself as one of the most successful community-driven tokens in the Solana ecosystem, approaching 1 million unique holders and expanding from a simple memecoin into meaningful DeFi infrastructure.

BONK

BONK is actively trending following the launch of Europe's first ETP and the anticipation of a 1 trillion token burn as the community nears 1 million holders, fueling optimism for a significant price surge. Many in the community are advocating for "diamond hands" conviction, anticipating a major "alt/meme season" and a "10x run" within the Solana ecosystem. Adding to the bullish sentiment, the token has launched a new Perp dex with revenue allocated to the Bonk DAO, alongside discussions of potential benefits from legal challenges faced by competing platforms.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) is a meme token which began as a fun currency and has now transformed into a decentralized ecosystem. During the initial launch, 50% of the supply was allocated into Vitalik Buterin's ethereum wallet.   As a result of that, Vitalik proceeded to donate 10% of his SHIB holdings to a COVID-19 relief effort in India and the remaining 40% is burnt forever. That donation was worth about $1 billion at that time, which makes it one of the largest donation ever in the world.  What is the Shiba Inu community working on right now? The Shiba Inu team launched a decentralized exchange called Shibaswap with 2 new tokens, LEASH and BONE. LEASH is a scarce supply token that is used to offer incentives on Shibaswap. BONE is the governance token for holders to vote on proposals on Doggy DAO.

Shiba Inu

SHIB is currently trending amid highly polarized community sentiment, with many debating if it's a "bull trap" or a prime "buy the dip" opportunity at perceived low prices. Discussions are rife with calls for a significant "squeeze" and the broader "alt season" narrative, even as others express skepticism and label it a "scam" or a "dead coin." The community remains deeply divided on its immediate future, reflecting ongoing volatility and uncertainty in the meme coin space.

What is the project about? Pepe is a community based meme token surround the iconic meme Pepe the frog. Pepe aims to leverage the power of such an iconic meme to become the most memeable memecoin in existence.   What makes your project unique? Pepe is here to make memecoins great again. Ushering in a new paradigm for memecoins, Pepe represents the memecoin in it's purest simplicity. With zero taxes, liquidity locked forever, and contract immutable, Pepe is for the people, forever. Pepe is about culture, rallying together a community to have fun and enjoy memes, fueled purely by memetic power.   History of your project. Pepe was stealth launched on Friday, April 14th, 2023.   What’s next for your project? Pepe will focus on developing a tight-knit community around the token and building resources to enrich the communities knowledge and success in crypto through a token gated group, newsletter, and more tools.   What can your token be used for? Pepe can be used to speculate on the power of memes, and does not pretend to be anything more.

Pepe

Pepe is currently a hot topic in the crypto community, with many anticipating an upcoming "alt season" reminiscent of past meme coin rallies. Enthusiasts are actively discussing accumulating more PEPE during market pullbacks and holding for substantial growth, fueled by strong collective belief in the coin's potential. The prevailing sentiment indicates expectations for significant upward momentum, as traders look for major breakthroughs.

Memecoin on Injective taken over by the community.

Nonja

NONJA CRYPTO is trending as its community actively positions it as a high-leverage play on the Injective ecosystem, anticipating significant upside with Injective's robust fundamentals and upcoming market catalysts. Enthusiasts highlight NONJA's strong community, high burned liquidity, and successful NFT collections, believing it to be a resilient and undervalued gem poised for substantial growth.

English version Introducing SWFTCoin (SWFTC) $SWFTC: Powering SWFT Blockchain and AI Services (SWFTGPT)  SwftCoin ($SWFTC) is the native utility token driving SWFT Blockchain's AI-powered ecosystem, SWFTGPT, and the first ever AI token featured on Coinbase. SWFTGPT is also the first domain-specific LLM for crypto.  SwftCoin key features include: 50% Reduced Transaction Fees: Lower costs on all transactions. AI Service Payments: Use $SWFTC to access SWFTGPT. Tools include expert market analysis,  predictions, and intelligent trading solutions.  Membership Benefits: Unlock premium features and AI agent services within SWFTGPT. AI-Powered Swaps: Enable precise, fast cross-chain transactions and analytics. SWFT Blockchain combines AI innovation with blockchain infrastructure, simplifying crypto trading while enhancing functionality through $SWFTC.   Chinese version $SWFTC：驱动 SWFT Blockchain 和 AI 服务（SWFTGPT） SwftCoin ($SWFTC) 是 SWFT Blockchain 的原生实用代币，为其 AI 驱动的生态系统 SWFTGPT 提供支持，同时也是 Coinbase 上首个 AI 代币。SWFTGPT 也是首个专注于加密领域的特定领域大型语言模型 (LLM)。 SwftCoin 的主要功能包括： 1、50% 交易费减免：降低所有交易成本。 2、AI 服务支付：使用 $SWFTC 访问 SWFTGPT 工具，包括专家市场分析、预测以及智能交易解决方案。 3、会员权益：解锁 SWFTGPT 的高级功能和 AI 代理服务。 4、AI 驱动的闪兑：实现精准快速的跨链交易和数据分析。 SWFT Blockchain 将 AI 创新与区块链基础设施结合，通过 $SWFTC 简化加密交易，并提升其功能性。

SwftCoin

SwftCoin (SWFTC) is trending with increased community engagement, driven by buzz surrounding potential new major exchange listings, notably Coinbase, and a significant surge in trading volume. The community is actively discussing its fully diluted supply, AI-integrated exchange, and cross-chain bridging technology, anticipating substantial "altseason" gains and its pivotal role in the evolving multi-chain ecosystem.

Sensei Biotherapeutics, Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company which focuses on the discovery, development, and delivery of next generation immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Rockville, MD.

Sensei Biotherapeutics Inc

Sensei Biotherapeutics (SNSE) is trending with a surge in trading volume, as community speculation mounts for a short squeeze driven by its notably low share float. The company's recent strategic review, involving a significant restructuring and exploration of value-maximizing alternatives like a merger or sale, is adding to the intense market conversation. Traders are actively watching this 'nano floater' for a potential parabolic breakout, drawing comparisons to other recent low-float runners.

Aerodrome Finance is a next-generation AMM designed to serve as Base's central liquidity hub, combining a powerful liquidity incentive engine, vote-lock governance model, and friendly user experience. Aerodrome inherits the latest features from Velodrome V2.

Aerodrome Finance

Aerodrome Finance (AERO) is a trending topic, driven by its recent listing on Robinhood and its pivotal role as the leading liquidity hub on the rapidly expanding Base network. The community is buzzing about its robust revenue generation, strategic tokenomics, and an anticipated merger with Velodrome that aims to establish a powerful cross-chain DeFi ecosystem. Despite broader market uncertainties, many view AERO as a fundamental player positioned for significant growth.

EHang Holdings Ltd. engages in the provision of aerial vehicle technology platform company. It also provides unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) systems and solutions: air mobility (including human transportation and logistics), smart city management, and aerial media solutions. The firm operates through the following geographical segments: P.R.C., West Asia, East Asia, South America, Europe, and Other. The company was founded by Huazhi Hu and Yifang Derrick Xiong in December 2014 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

EHang Holdings Ltd - ADR

EHang Holdings

EHang Holdings is trending amid a split investor sentiment following a significant reduction in its full-year revenue guidance and a subsequent analyst downgrade. While some investors express frustration over the stock's performance and management's consistency, others remain bullish, pointing to the company's continuous progress in autonomous eVTOL technology and upcoming commercial operational launches in regions like Thailand and Saudi Arabia.

Cadrenal Therapeutics, Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, which engages in developing novel therapy. It develops tecarfarin, a novel therapy with orphan drug indication, designed for the prevention of systemic thromboembolism of cardiac origin in patients with end-stage renal disease and atrial fibrillation. The company was founded by Quang X. Pham and Matthew K. Szot on January 25, 2022 and is headquartered in Ponte Vedra, FL.

Cadrenal Therapeutics Inc

Cadrenal Therapeutics, Inc.

Cadrenal Therapeutics is trending due to recent announcements regarding the expansion of its anticoagulant drug pipeline through new acquisitions, including a 12-LOX inhibitor for heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT), and strategic collaborations for its tecarfarin program. This has sparked a divided community, with many investors anticipating significant upside from its low float and regulatory designations, while a vocal group expresses strong skepticism, citing concerns over potential dilution and the company's financial stability. The ongoing conversation centers on whether these pipeline advancements will solidify CVKD's position as a multi-asset biotech.

statis crypto Watchlist

Bitcoin

Ethereum

Solana

Ripple

Dogecoin

Cardano

statis IN Watchlist

Nifty 50

Nifty Bank

Reliance Industries Ltd.

Zomato Ltd.

Tata Consultancy Services

Tata Motors Ltd.

HDFC Bank Ltd.

ITC Ltd.

Adani Enterprises Ltd

Axis Bank Ltd

Bajaj Finance Ltd

statis US Watchlist

SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Apple Inc.

Tesla Inc

Microsoft Corporation

NVIDIA Corp

 Hey, I want to invite you to join Stocktwits. It’s the largest global community of active traders. You’ll get access to the real-time market insights, news, discussion and much more! You can sign up using my unique link below 
 


 has invited you to join Stocktwits

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January is now at 14.9%, down from 23% a month ago.&nbsp;</li><li>The probability for a 25 bps cut in March remains relatively high, at 42.5%, compared to 38.5% a month ago.</li><li>According to the Fed’s dot-plot projections, the median estimate for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is 3.4%, which is a quarter point lower than the current range of 3.5% and 3.75%.</li></ul>As 2025 draws to a close, investors are trying to decode where the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is headed next.After holding rates steady for most of 2025 and resisting President Donald Trump’s calls for rate cuts, the central bank ended the year with three consecutive 25 basis point reductions in the policy rate.With the labor market cooling and inflation remaining above the Fed’s long-term target of 2%, markets are lowering their expectations of aggressive cuts in the coming year.<h2 class="st-heading-2">What Are Markets Considering?</h2>According to data from the CME FedWatch&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a>, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January is now at 14.9%, down from 23% a month ago.&nbsp;The probability for a 25 bps cut in March remains relatively high, at 42.5%, compared to 38.5% a month ago.However, the odds of the federal funds rate being in the 3% to 3.25% range, which implies a cumulative reduction of 50 bps, are considerably low, at 5.9%. This is down from 8.1% a month ago.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Economist’s Take</h2>Jeremy Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, stated last week that cooling inflation gives the Federal Reserve more room to move the policy rate down further. Eventually, he expects additional easing that will take rates closer to the low-3% range.According to the Fed’s dot-plot projections, the median estimate for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is 3.4%, which is a quarter point lower than the current range of 3.5% and 3.75%. This points to just one cut in 2026.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Fed’s Pivot</h2>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met eight times in 2025 and chose to keep rates unchanged in the first five meetings.The central bank noted in its first five meetings that the labor market conditions were “solid,” but changed its tone in the sixth meeting in September, with the FOMC statement stating that “job gains have slowed this year” in the last three meetings of the year. However, its tone on inflation was consistent throughout the year, with the central bank stating that it remained “somewhat elevated.”Inflation remained above the Fed’s long-term target of 2%, and the central bank expects it to stay above this level throughout 2026 as well as 2027.The Fed also ended its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program on December 1, bringing an end to a multi-year effort to reduce its balance sheet.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Growing Dissent</h2>Dissent among central bank officials has been growing. The first four FOMC meetings saw unanimous agreement among the committee's voting members on the rate policy, but since the fifth meeting, there has been dissent.Notable among the dissenters this year is Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who has voted for a 50 bps cut thrice since being sworn in to the position in September.During the December FOMC meeting, there were three dissenters against the central bank’s monetary policy action — while Miran wanted a larger 50 bps cut, Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid wanted no cuts.According to a CNBC&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/the-fed-is-the-most-divided-its-been-in-more-than-a-decade.html">report</a>, this is the most divisive the Fed has been in the past six years.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Leadership Change Ahead</h2>Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term is set to expire in May 2026. President Trump told reporters on Tuesday that he plans to announce his pick for the Fed Chair position sometime in January, after threatening to sue Powell for “gross incompetence,”&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-threatens-sue-feds-powell-will-announce-replacement-next-month-2025-12-29/">according</a> to Reuters.There are two <a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/kevin-warsh-fed-chair-kalshi-after-pushback-against-kevin-hassett-trump/cLeJfHqREYv">frontrunners</a> for the Fed Chair role — White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, with Christopher Waller also in the running.Meanwhile, U.S. equities declined in Wednesday morning’s trade. At the time of writing, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, was down 0.35%; the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) fell 0.38%; and the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) declined 0.35%. Retail sentiment around the S&amp;P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘neutral’ territory.The&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/TLT">iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (TLT) was down 0.18% at the time of writing, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/IEF">iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (IEF) fell 0.1%.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/why-is-inbs-stock-rising-today/cL7BB78REzv">Why Is INBS Stock Rising Today?</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

In this photo illustration, The Federal Reserve System logo displayed on a smartphone. 

How Fed’s 2025 Pivot, QT Exit, And Rising Dissent Reshaped Rate Expectations This Year

After holding rates steady for most of 2025 and resisting President Donald Trump’s calls for rate cuts, the central bank ended the year with three consecutive 25 basis point reductions in the policy rate.

Equity

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>The four-week moving average for jobless claims, which smooths weekly volatility, rose by 1,750 to 218,750.</li><li>Continuing claims fell to 1.87 million for the week ended December 20, declining by 47,000 over the previous week’s revised level</li><li>The largest increase in claims was in New Jersey at 3,343, followed by Missouri at 1,608, whereas the largest decrease was in New York at 1,285 and Minnesota at 1,012.</li></ul>Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected for the third consecutive week, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor.Jobless claims fell by 16,000 to 199,000 in the week ended December 27. This was lower than a Dow Jones estimate of 220,000, as&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar">cited</a> by MarketWatch. The previous week’s level was revised upward by 1,000 to 215,000.The four-week moving average for jobless claims, which smooths weekly volatility, rose by 1,750 to 218,750.This is the third consecutive weekly decline in jobless claims – benefit applications fell by 9,000 and 13,000 over the previous two weeks, according to Labor Department data.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Continuing Claims Fall</h2>Continuing claims, which refer to the number of people claiming unemployment benefits beyond the first week, fell to 1.87 million for the week ended December 20, declining by 47,000 over the previous week’s revised levelThe largest increase in claims was in New Jersey at 3,343, followed by Missouri at 1,608, whereas the largest decrease was in New York at 1,285 and Minnesota at 1,012.The Labor Department data showed that jobless claims for the week of December 27 were the second-lowest in 2025, while those for the week of November 29 were the lowest this year. The decline in December 27 week’s claims was also among the most significant reductions this year.At the end of 2024, jobless claims stood at 209,000, while 2025 ended with jobless claims of 199,000.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Economist’s Take</h2>Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, said in a&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/elerianm/status/2006358954679628181">post</a> on X that the jobless claims report will fuel an ongoing labor market debate, where the two primary questions are “The extent of current weakness; and The evolving balance between supply and demand influences,” the economist said.<figure class="image"><img style="aspect-ratio:725/371;" src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/El_Erian_post_jpg_b0c7bb5d62.webp" alt="Mohamed El-Erian's post on X" width="725" height="371"><figcaption>Mohamed El-Erian's post on X | @elerianm/X</figcaption></figure>Meanwhile, U.S. equities gained in Wednesday’s pre-market trade. At the time of writing, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, was up by 0.1%, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/QQQ">Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</a> (QQQ) gained 0.16%, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) rose 0.02%. Retail sentiment around the S&amp;P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘neutral’ territory.The&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/IEF">iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (IEF) was down by 0.12% at the time of writing.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/cort-stock-falls-fda-additional-evidence-needed-relacorilant-cushings-syndrome/cL7B7XwREzs">Why Is CORT Stock Falling Today?</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Job seekers stand in line at the Wyndham Destinations booth during the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on April 30, 2025. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Fall For Third Consecutive Week

According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday, jobless claims fell by 16,000 to 199,000 in the week ended December 20.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>These are aimed at improving China's modern infrastructure system and supporting a smooth start to the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), according to a Reuters report.&nbsp; About 220 billion yuan has been set aside for 281 national and security-related projects, as per the report.&nbsp; In a separate statement, the National Development and Reform Commission said that the country’s top leadership is prioritizing expanding domestic demand as one of its eight key tasks for 2026.</li></ul>China is reportedly allocating 295 billion yuan ($42.16 billion) in 2026 on an investment plan for the central government's budget and major projects amid the country’s increasing focus on expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption and investment.According to a Reuters report from Wednesday, the projects are aimed at improving China's modern infrastructure system and supporting a smooth start to the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), Li Chao, a National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) spokesperson, said in Beijing.The announcement comes even as China’s top leadership lists expanding domestic demand as one of its eight key tasks for 2026, alongside prioritizing the refinement of the “Two New” policies to build a more robust domestic market, as per a <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/jd/jd/202512/t20251231_1402889.html">separate statement</a> from NDRC.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Investment Allocation</h2>Li Chao, a spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission, said in Beijing that about 220 billion yuan has been set aside for 281 national and security-related projects, according to the report.Additionally, the central government has set aside over 75 billion yuan to fund 673 projects across domains such as ecological protection and carbon reduction.China's "Two New" policies, namely equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in, aim to bolster domestic demand while simultaneously improving equipment efficiency to lower emissions. President Xi Jinping reiterated the idea in early 2024 as a way for the government to shift China's growth towards domestic demand while strengthening internal infrastructure, energy, and resource security.China has also <a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/china-announces-first-tranche-of-nearly-9-billion-in-consumer-subsidies-for-2026/cL7IRShREUH">announced</a> the first tranche of 62.5 billion yuan ($8.92 billion) in subsidies, to be provided through the sale of ultra-long special sovereign bonds to local governments, to support the trade-in of consumer goods in 2026.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Future Outlook</h2>The government’s investment plans and 15th Five-Year Plan come as the world’s second-largest economy faces headwinds from a persistent property slump, weak consumer demand, and global trade tensions.While China’s year-to-date GDP growth came in at 5.2% year-on-year as of December, it is projected to grow at 4.4% in 2026, according to a <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/12/11/advancing-reforms-can-enhance-prospects-china-economic-update">report</a> from the World Bank, which also believes that the country’s growth in the coming years hinges on the strength of its domestic demand as well as its structural reforms.The <a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/FXI">iShares China Large-Cap ETF</a> (FXI), which tracks large-capitalization Chinese equities, has climbed over 25% in the past year. Meanwhile, U.S. equities declined in Wednesday morning’s trade.At the time of writing, the <a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, was down 0.23%, while the <a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/QQQ">Invesco QQQ Trust</a> (QQQ) edged 0.31% lower. Retail sentiment around the S&amp;P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘neutral’ territory.The <a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/IEF">iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (IEF) was up 0.10% at the time of writing.For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.(1 Chinese Yuan = $0.14) &nbsp;

Used cars sold in a used car market in Yichang, Hubei Province, China on June 9, 2025. (Photo credit should read CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images)

China Reportedly Earmarks $42 Billion For 2026 Projects – Infrastructure, Consumption Take Priority

China’s 295 billion yuan allocation in 2026 will go towards an investment plan for the central government's budget and other major projects. 

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>The exact combination of legal routes the administration would use depends on the details of the ruling, especially if the court rules the use of emergency powers as illegal, the report noted.&nbsp;</li><li>Ted Murphy, a trade lawyer at Sidley Austin in Washington, believes that the tariffs will be reissued on the same day, as per the report.&nbsp;</li><li>The Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump’s tariffs, including the legality of using emergency powers to impose tariffs on trading partners, is likely to come in January 2026.</li></ul>President Donald Trump is reportedly expected to roll out fresh tariffs if the Supreme Court ruling goes against the current ones.According to a <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ft.com/content/ead498af-2403-4cef-a515-055cb38dfbdb">Financial Times report</a>, the Trump administration will use alternative legislation and existing trade measures to reissue the tariffs even if the court strikes down the present ones. There are a series of plans in place, the report said, citing diplomats and trade lawyers familiar with the matter.The exact combination of legal routes the administration would use depends on the details of the ruling, especially if the court rules the use of emergency powers as illegal, the report noted. However, Ted Murphy, a trade lawyer at Sidley Austin in Washington, believes that the tariffs will be reissued on the same day, as per the report.The Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump’s tariffs, including the legality of using emergency powers to impose tariffs on trading partners, is likely to come in January 2026.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Expected Legal Moves</h2>If the Supreme Court strikes down the current tariffs, the administration could use one or a combination of laws, including Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, both of which were already under consideration for use earlier this year, FT reported, citing people familiar with the matter.Section 122 is typically a short-term tool to allow quick import restrictions when major trade imbalances occur. It will give the President temporary authority to impose tariffs of up to 15% for up to 150 days. Meanwhile, Section 338 is a rarely used law that would grant the President the power to levy retaliatory tariffs of up to 50% or even ban imports from countries considered to be engaging in discriminatory trade practices against the U.S.The administration may also rely on Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and Section 301 of the 1974 U.S. Trade Act, the report noted. Section 232 is a law that authorizes the President to impose tariffs or restrictions on goods deemed to threaten or impair U.S. national security and is already being leveraged to apply tariffs on the import of cars, steel, aluminium, copper and lumber.Section 301 applies to investigations into unfair foreign trade practices and grants the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) authority to retaliate against them. This is currently deployed for investigations against Brazil, Nicaragua and China, and the administration is likely to probe further, the report said.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Supreme Court Ruling</h2>The Supreme Court is expected to rule on whether Trump may have overstepped his Presidential authority by using the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose trade tariffs on a vast number of imports from trading partners.In a <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115688492399516072">post</a> on Truth Social, the President said it could leave the U.S. “financially defenseless” and asserted that striking down the tariffs would be “the biggest threat in history to United States National Security.”Meanwhile, U.S. equities were flat in Tuesday morning’s trade. At the time of writing, the <a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, was up marginally, and the <a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/QQQ">Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</a> (QQQ) was unchanged. The <a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) climbed 0.02% and the <a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/IEF">iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (IEF) declined 0.04% at the time of writing.&nbsp;Retail sentiment around the S&amp;P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘neutral’ territory.For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com. &nbsp;

U.S. President Donald Trump looks on during a meeting of his Cabinet in the Cabinet Room of the White House on December 02, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Trump Expected To Roll Out Fresh Levies If Supreme Court Rules Against Tariffs: Report

The Trump administration will use a combination of alternative legislation and existing trade measures to reissue tariffs if the Supreme Court rules against the current ones, according to a report from Financial Times. 

Trump Expected To Roll Out Fresh Levies If Supreme Court Rules Against Tariffs: Report 

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Siegel also predicted that the stock market’s gains in 2026 will be much more muted.&nbsp;</li><li>The economist predicted that the S&amp;P 500 index will likely gain between 5% and 10% next year.</li><li>He attributed the potential slowdown to waning momentum in the Magnificent Seven stocks.</li></ul>Jeremy Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Monday reportedly flagged three potential hurdles for U.S. markets in 2026 but noted that it would still be a positive year if they were navigated successfully.During an interview with CNBC, Siegel predicted another potential government shutdown in January. He also noted that the Supreme Court is likely to announce its decision on tariffs, potentially in the same month. Finally, he anticipated an announcement from President Donald Trump about the next Fed chairman, also likely in January.“We need to get through some bumps, as I say. But if we can get through those successfully, it still looks like a positive year for me,” Siegel said during the interview.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Market Outlook In 2026</h2>In addition to these headwinds, Siegel said that he believes the stock market’s gains next year will be much more muted than in 2025.He added that the S&amp;P 500 index, which is heavily weighted towards the “Magnificent Seven” and technology stocks, will likely gain only between 5% to 10%. For reference, the benchmark index has climbed over 17% this year.“We know it’s been predicted for a long time because the streak of the Mag Seven is really quite unprecedented,” he said in the interview. The non-Mag Seven growth could be between 10% and 15%, he added.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Funding, Tariffs And Fed Chair</h2>In November, President Trump signed a spending bill that ended the longest shutdown in U.S. history. The shutdown disrupted many government services and delayed key economic releases. However, the bill was a current resolution or a temporary agreement, meaning another government shutdown risk looms in January if Congress fails to reach a longer-term agreement.On the tariffs front, the U.S. Supreme Court is currently reviewing arguments about the Trump administration’s trade tariffs. The decision is likely to have a direct impact on America’s relationships with its trading partners as well as the president’s economic agenda.As discussions around the next Fed Chair continue, Trump recently <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115770165868454573">said</a> on Truth Social that anyone who disagrees with his views on interest rates “will never be the Fed Chairman.”Meanwhile, U.S. equities edged lower in Monday morning’s trade. The <a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, was down 0.47% at the time of writing, while the <a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/QQQ">Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</a> (QQQ) traded 0.64% lower. The <a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) also declined 0.54%. Retail sentiment around the S&amp;P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bullish’ territory.The <a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/IEF">iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (IEF), on the other hand, was up 0.1% at the time of writing.For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.&nbsp;

In this photo illustration, a US flag is displayed on a smartphone and stock market prices in the background. (Photo Illustration by Romain Doucelin/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Wharton's Jeremy Siegel Flags Three Near-Term Bumps For 2026 But Maintains Positive Outlook: Report 

The economist flagged the likelihood of another government shutdown, the Supreme Court’s tariff decision, and the new Fed Chair announcement as potential headwinds.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>The NAR report stated that pending home sales registered increases across all four regions – Northeast, Midwest, South, and West.</li><li>Most of the gains were registered in the West, at 9.2%, followed by the South at 2.4%, the Northeast at 1.8%, and the Midwest at 1.3%.</li><li>NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, said that more inventory choices now compared to last year are also attracting more homebuyers to the market.</li></ul>Pending home sales rose to their highest levels in nearly three years on the back of building homebuyer momentum.According to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), pending home sales rose 3.3% in November compared to October, beating a Dow Jones estimate of 1%, as&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar">cited</a> by MarketWatch. On a year-on-year basis, the gain stood at 2.6%.The NAR also revised the October gains upwards to 2.4% from 1.9%.“Homebuyer momentum is building. The data shows the strongest performance of the year after accounting for seasonal factors, and the best performance in nearly three years, dating back to February 2023,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Gains In All Regions</h2>The NAR report stated that pending home sales registered increases across all four regions – Northeast, Midwest, South, and West.Most of the gains were registered in the West, at 9.2%, followed by the South at 2.4%, the Northeast at 1.8%, and the Midwest at 1.3%.Yun added that more inventory choices now compared to last year are also attracting more homebuyers to the market. “Improving housing affordability–driven by lower mortgage rates and wage growth rising faster than home prices–is helping buyers test the market,” Yun said.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Mortgage Rates Edge Lower</h2>This comes at a time when mortgage rates are inching lower, heading into the holiday season.According to Freddie Mac data, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) declined to 6.18% as of December 24, down from 6.21%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.85%.Meanwhile, U.S. equities declined in Monday morning’s trade. At the time of writing, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, was down 0.61%, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/QQQ">Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</a> (QQQ) declined 0.81%, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) fell 0.64%. Retail sentiment around the S&amp;P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bullish’ territory.The&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (IEF) was up 0.11% at the time of writing.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/elon-musk-israel-pm-benjamin-netanyahu-tesla-cooperation-robotaxis/cL75UEMRExh">Elon Musk And Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu Held Discussions On Sunday – Yes, Tesla Was A Subject</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

A sign advertises new homes in a gated community in Fontana, California. Shares of Better Home surged nearly 47% on Monday. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Pending Home Sales Rise To Highest Levels In Nearly Three Years: NAR Chief Economist Says ‘Homebuyer Momentum Is Building’

According to data from the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales rose 3.3% in November compared to October.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Moore’s comments come days after the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, higher than the Dow Jones forecast of 3.2%.</li><li>The economist highlighted President Trump’s claims of bringing trillions of dollars of capital into the U.S.</li><li>He added that even if President Trump is off by 90%, that still means $1.8 trillion worth of capital flowing into the U.S.</li></ul>Stephen Moore, President Donald Trump’s former economic advisor, reportedly said on Monday that although he is not a big fan of Donald Trump’s tariffs, he appreciates some of the trade deals that the President has pulled off.During an interview with CNBC, he highlighted the concessions made by South Korea, China, Japan, Canada, and the European Union in their trade deals with the Trump administration.“We’ve got an economy that’s doing much, much better than the economists believed, and part of the reason the economists were so negative on the economy was exactly the point you just made, tariffs,” Moore told CNBC.Moore’s comments come days after the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the U.S. economy grew at an&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/us-gdp-q3-december-2025/cLep8gzREuU">annualized rate of 4.3%</a> in the third quarter (Q3), higher than the Dow Jones forecast of 3.2%.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Looking Beyond Tariffs</h2>Moore highlighted President Trump’s claims of bringing trillions of dollars of capital into the U.S.“I’ve secured a record-breaking $18 trillion dollars of investment into the United States — which means jobs, wage increases, growth, factory openings, and far greater national security,” President Trump said in an address to the nation earlier this month.The economist added that even if President Trump is off by 90%, that still means $1.8 trillion worth of capital flowing into the U.S. “That’s a huge amount of money being invested into the United States,” he said during the interview.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Not Everyone’s Onboard</h2>Despite the Q3 GDP print blowing past Wall Street estimates, not everyone is as optimistic as Moore. Economist Justin Wolfers&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/kevin-o-leary-says-trump-gdp-record-is-pretty-good-but-this-economist-has-a-warning/cL75pDKREDs">explained</a> why headline economic growth hasn’t translated into how many Americans feel about the economy.“Our individual economic realities are driven less by the national average and more by the policy choices—tariffs, taxes, and cuts—that decide who actually gets the gains from growth,” Wolfers said.Economist Paul Krugman&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/paul-krugman-warns-2026-worse-for-small-businesses/cL75twFRExT">warned</a> that while 2025 was a miserable year for small businesses, 2026 will be worse.“The second Trump administration has been marked by increased government-imposed burdens on small business. High tariffs have been a body blow to the many small businesses that rely, one way or another, on imported goods,” he said. The economist added that small businesses will have to deal with spiking insurance costs, making it unaffordable for both their employees and, in many cases, themselves.Meanwhile, U.S. equities declined in Monday morning’s trade. At the time of writing, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, was down 0.47%, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/QQQ">Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</a> (QQQ) declined 0.65%, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) fell 0.53%. Retail sentiment around the S&amp;P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bullish’ territory.The&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (IEF) was up 0.07% at the time of writing.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/paul-krugman-warns-2026-worse-for-small-businesses/cL75twFRExT">Paul Krugman Warns 2026 Will Be Worse For Small Businesses, A Month After Small Firms Cut 120,000 Jobs</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Heritage Foundation Senior Visiting Fellow for Economics Stephen Moore (L), accompanied by U.S. President Donald Trump (R)

Trump's Former Economic Advisor Says He's Not A Big Fan Of Tariffs, But Adds Economy Doing 'Much, Much Better': Report

During an interview with CNBC, he highlighted the concessions made by South Korea, China, Japan, Canada, and the European Union in their trade deals with the Trump administration.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>The economist stated that big businesses have the advantage of access to resources and the ability to leverage political connections to navigate changes in government policies.</li><li>Krugman cited the example of large businesses being able to shift their suppliers, handle paperwork, and dodge tariffs on certain categories.</li><li>He also pointed to the dependence of small business owners and their employees on the government programs, who reportedly account for nearly half of the adults benefiting from government insurance.</li></ul>Economist Paul Krugman warned on Monday that 2026 will be worse for small businesses, a month after they reported a sharp 120,000-job cut.In his latest post, Krugman pointed out that small businesses were unable to weather the storm brought about by the Trump administration’s tariffs and immigration policy changes.According to&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/adp-data-private-payrolls-november-decline/cLIXA6aRE1i">data released</a> by payroll processing firm ADP, small businesses registered a sharp pullback in November, with a net decline of 120,000 employees, while mid-sized and large businesses added 90,000 employees on a net basis.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Big Corporations Better Positioned</h2>The economist stated that big businesses have the advantage of access to resources and the ability to leverage political connections to navigate changes in government policies.Krugman stated that big businesses have the resources to shift their supply chains to other countries, while small businesses won’t have the manpower or money to do so.He also stated that businesses imported goods from Mexico and Canada under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, capitalizing on the duty-free option. However, businesses chose not to fill out the required paperwork for such imports, but after the announcement of Trump tariffs, big businesses decided to comply with the rules. Again, they were able to do so because they could better bear the costs involved than their smaller counterparts, Krugman said.Lastly, the economist cited Apple dodging some of the worst impacts of tariffs. While President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods, smartphones were exempt from the levies. Krugman pointed out that Apple is one of the&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/23/trump-white-house-ballroom-donors">donors</a> to President Trump’s $300 million White House ballroom.“All of these factors help explain the trends shown in the chart at the top of this post: 2025 was a difficult year for many businesses not benefiting from the AI boom, but it was especially hard on small business,” he said.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Why Are Small Businesses Worse Off?</h2>Krugman warned that the worst is yet to come for small businesses, heading into 2026.The economist pointed to the dependence of small business owners and their employees on the government programs, who&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/27/politics/small-businesses-health-insurance-aca">reportedly</a> account for nearly half of the adults benefiting from government insurance.He also pointed to a&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/aca-marketplace-premium-payments-would-more-than-double-on-average-next-year-if-enhanced-premium-tax-credits-expire/">report</a> that states that insurance premiums under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) would more than double in 2026 if enhanced premium tax credits expire.“In short, small businesses placed its faith in Trump but has been betrayed,” concluded Krugman.Meanwhile, U.S. equities were mixed in Monday’s pre-market trade. At the time of writing, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, was down 0.19%, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/QQQ">Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</a> (QQQ) declined 0.35%, and the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) edged lower by 0.01%. Retail sentiment around the S&amp;P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bullish’ territory.The&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (IEF) was up 0.1% at the time of writing.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/kevin-o-leary-says-trump-gdp-record-is-pretty-good-but-this-economist-has-a-warning/cL75pDKREDs">Kevin O’Leary Says Trump’s GDP Record Is Pretty Good — But This Economist Warns Growth Gains Aren’t Reaching Households</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences winner Dr. Paul Krugman attends Conference On Talking About Freedom

Paul Krugman Warns 2026 Will Be Worse For Small Businesses, A Month After Small Firms Cut 120,000 Jobs

Krugman pointed out that small businesses were unable to weather the storm brought about by the Trump administration’s tariffs and immigration policy changes.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>The “Shark Tank” investor explained why the GDP growth number matters, adding that half of every investment dollar is still made in the U.S.</li><li>However, he acknowledged that problems with the U.S. economy continue to persist, including high inflation.</li><li>He also criticized the Trump administration’s tariff policies, saying that inputs not even produced in the U.S. have been included in the levies.</li></ul>Kevin O’Leary, chairman of O’Leary Ventures and one of the investors on “Shark Tank,” on Sunday said that the Trump administration has a “pretty good scorecard” when it comes to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).In a&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/kevinolearytv/status/2005092607165173924">post</a> on X following an interview on Fox News, O’Leary highlighted the better-than-expected third-quarter (Q3)&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/us-gdp-q3-december-2025/cLep8gzREuU">GDP print</a>, while explaining why it matters.“This number matters because it tells you how productive the economy is and how fast it’s growing. And 50% of every investment dollar around the world still comes to the United States, because it remains the strongest economy on earth,” he said.<figure class="image"><img style="aspect-ratio:1166/922;" src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Screenshot_2025_12_29_at_16_11_54_png_b746a736e3.webp" alt="Kevin O'Leary's post on X" width="1166" height="922"><figcaption>Kevin O'Leary's post on X | @kevinolearytv/X</figcaption></figure>Earlier this month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, higher than the Dow Jones forecast of 3.2%.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Problems Persist</h2>O’Leary acknowledged that challenges persist in the U.S. economy, including high prices and the need for further fine-tuning of the Trump administration’s tariff policies.“Affordability and healthcare still matter, and tariffs need fine-tuning. We’re tariffing inputs we don’t even make, which only pushes prices higher,” he added.According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annualized rate of 2.7% in November, staying above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Economist’s Take</h2>Justin Wolfers, professor of economics and public policy at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan, explained why headline economic growth hasn’t translated into how many Americans feel about the economy.“Our individual economic realities are driven less by the national average and more by the policy choices—tariffs, taxes, and cuts—that decide who actually gets the gains from growth,” Wolfers said in a&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/2005415424263893354">post</a> on X.&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img style="aspect-ratio:1166/340;" src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Screenshot_2025_12_29_at_16_12_12_png_e8cd58b2be.webp" alt="Justin Wolfers' post on X" width="1166" height="340"><figcaption>Justin Wolfers' post on X | @JustinWolfers/X</figcaption></figure>Amid growing concerns about affordability, President Donald Trump kicked off a tour earlier this month to reach out to Americans struggling with higher prices, according to a&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/12/09/trump-affordability-pennsylvania/">report</a> by The Washington Post.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Growth Slowdown Likely Ahead</h2>Analysts at ING Think stated in a recent note that they expect fourth-quarter (Q4) GDP growth to be “considerably slower,” citing the 43-day-long U.S. government shutdown. The firm also expects a slowdown in consumer spending during the quarter.“Expectations of cooling data probably explains the relatively muted market reaction with the 10Y Treasury yield only up 3bp on the day [of GDP report release] and Fed funds rate cut expectations for 2026 still holding above 50bp,” the firm said.Meanwhile, U.S. equities were mixed in Monday’s pre-market trade. At the time of writing, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, was down 0.2%, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/QQQ">Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</a> (QQQ) declined 0.41%, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) edged up by 0.02%. Retail sentiment around the S&amp;P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bullish’ territory.The&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (IEF) was up 0.09% at the time of writing.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/christmas-party-stocks-still-ongoing-2025/cLeULetRED2">The Christmas Party Is Still Ongoing In These Stocks: Nvidia, Sidus Space, Coupang, Vanda Pharmaceuticals, ImmuCell</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Kevin O'Leary, Chairman of O'Leary Ventures, arrives to speak before a Senate Committee on Aging and House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party joint hearing on April 9, 2025 in Washington, DC

Kevin O’Leary Says Trump’s GDP Record Is Pretty Good — But This Economist Warns Growth Gains Aren’t Reaching Households

Earlier this month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, higher than the Dow Jones forecast of 3.2%.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Experts at ING Think stated in a recent note that they expect the Q4 GDP growth to be “considerably slower.”</li><li>The firm also expects a slowdown in consumer spending during the quarter.</li><li>Analysts say a mix of tepid fourth-quarter growth forecasts and deeper structural market forces is keeping long-term yields from collapsing.</li></ul>U.S. Treasury Yields were muted on Friday morning as investors returned to the markets in a holiday-shortened week, even as analysts expect muted growth in the fourth quarter.The benchmark 10-Year Treasury yield fell one basis point to 4.132%, while the 30-year yield gained one basis point to 4.801%. The 2-year Treasury yield declined two basis points to hover at 3.493% at the time of writing.Analysts say a mix of tepid fourth-quarter (Q4) growth forecasts and deeper structural market forces is keeping long-term yields from collapsing, reflecting macroeconomic caution and persistent term-premium pressures.“You can’t have inflation and growth running at this pace and expect 10-year yields to move much lower,” said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates strategy at AmeriVet Securities, according to a&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/26/treasury-yields-are-little-changed-as-traders-return-from-christmas-holiday.html">report</a> by CNBC.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Growth Slowdown Likely</h2>Analysts at ING Think stated in a recent note that they expect the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to be “considerably slower,” following the third-quarter (Q3)&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/us-gdp-q3-december-2025/cLep8gzREuU">GDP surprise</a>.The firm tempered its expectations for Q4 GDP due to the 43-day-long U.S. government shutdown, and expects a slowdown in consumer spending as well during the quarter.“Expectations of cooling data probably explains the relatively muted market reaction with the 10Y Treasury yield only up 3bp on the day [of GDP report release] and Fed funds rate cut expectations for 2026 still holding above 50bp,” the firm said.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Rate Cut Outlook</h2>Jeremy Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Tuesday stated that he expects cooling inflation to give the Federal Reserve more room to lower the policy rate further. He expects additional easing that will take rates closer to the low-3% range.According to data from the CME FedWatch&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a>, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January is now at 17.7%, down from 22.1% a week ago.However, Siegel still does not see a collapse in longer yields even if the policy rate is lowered. “I do not expect that to automatically pull the 10-year down by the same magnitude. The long end is likely to remain anchored in the low-4% area as term premium, issuance, and structural forces keep longer yields from collapsing,” he said.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Entry Points To Become Attractive</h2>Analysts at Nuveen stated in their latest note that the entry points for Treasuries will become attractive going forward.“Risk premiums may widen further, with entry points likely to become more attractive over the coming quarters. Duration is likely to reassume its role as a growth hedge,” the firm said.It added that current yields present compelling opportunities for investors, while noting material downside risks to the U.S. economy. The firm said that tariffs are likely to compress consumer spending and weigh on business fixed investment, but it still does not have a recession as its base case.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Key Data</h2>While the earnings season is drawing to a close, investors will keep an eye on the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) minutes from the December meeting, scheduled to be released on Tuesday.Home sales data on Monday, and the S&amp;P Case-Shiller home price index on Tuesday will also be on investors’ radars next week.The weekly jobless claims report from the U.S. Department of Labor will also be keenly monitored.The&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/TLT">iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (TLT) was up 0.15% at the time of writing, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/IEF">iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (IEF) was up 0.16%. Retail sentiment around the TLT ETF was in the ‘bullish’ territory.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/is-the-stock-market-open-today-after-christmas/cLeUEoAREw0">Is The Stock Market Open Today? NYSE, Nasdaq Trading Hours For December 26</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

US Treasury Yields | Representative image

Treasury Yields Hold Steady As Wall Street Braces For ‘Considerably Slower’ Q4 GDP

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell one basis point to 4.132%, while the 30-year yield gained one basis point to hover at 4.801%.

IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

Feed

News

Sentiment

Fundamentals

Info

Latest IEF News

IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF