SPCX Stock Keeps Falling: Gary Black Says SpaceX Still Looks Ridiculously Overvalued — ‘Don’t Say I Didn’t Warn You’

• Gary Black adds that investors ignored clear warning signs despite extensive scrutiny of SpaceX's business plans and financials.
• He claims the IPO was structured to create a supply-demand imbalance that inflated SpaceX's market value and benefited bankers.
• Black questions Wall Street's bullish stance, noting that only Morningstar has a ‘sell’ rating on the stock despite its steep decline.

Future Fund Managing Director Gary Black weighed in on SpaceX’s recent decline after shares of the newly public company cooled off in a big way from their post-IPO highs.

SpaceX stock (SPCX) ended Friday’s session 5.43% down at $123.60. This was about 9% below its $135 initial public offering (IPO) price and down around 45% from its all-time intraday high of $225.64.

Gary Black On SpaceX’s Post-IPO Drop

In a post on X, Future Fund Managing Director Gary Black said, “Don't say I didn't warn you,” stating that SPCX stock’s decline validated his long-standing concerns over its valuation and IPO structure. He added that the stock still trades at “FY’2026 EV/Revs of 45x.”

Black invoked legendary investor Peter Lynch’s long-held skepticism toward IPOs, saying Lynch believed IPO stood for “it’s probably overpriced.” He stated that SpaceX’s “totally unproven plans to build data centres in space” were thoroughly examined before the listing, while its prospectus outlined what he described as a “ridiculous total addressable market” of $28.5 trillion.

Black also noted that the company’s losses “were disclosed and discussed,” adding that there “may not have been an IPO in world history as closely scrutinised as this one.” According to Black, investors who still chose to buy despite the risks “deserved what they got.”

Gary Black Criticizes IPO Structure And Wall Street Support

Black said that the decline cannot be viewed in isolation because it “ignores the cynical way” SpaceX, its investment bankers, and advisers structured the IPO “to engineer short-term gain” and create "a $US500 billion fee pool."

Black said the $85 billion IPO — “3x the size of the next largest IPO in history” — created a “highly imbalanced supply/demand situation,” with a free float of less than $100 billion supporting more than $2 trillion in paper market value. Despite the stock’s decline, he maintained that SpaceX “still looks ridiculously overvalued at 45x 2026 EV/Revs,” while noting that most Wall Street analysts covering the stock have ‘Buy’ ratings and “only one — Morningstar... has a sell rating.” Black ended his post, saying, “That says it all.”

SPCX Stock: What Stocktwits Retail Sentiment Says

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits for SPCX remained ‘bearish,’ unchanged in the past 24 hours, while message volume was ‘low.’

SPCX stock has fallen over 20% since making its public market debut in June.

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