- Data from popular prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show that bets regarding the Supreme Court’s potential decision are now worth over $9 million.
- On Kalshi, users think there is a 30% chance that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump tariffs by 2028.
- On Polymarket, bettors think there is a slightly lower chance of a positive ruling for the Trump administration, with 28% expecting a ruling in President Trump’s favor.
The U.S. Supreme Court has reportedly set February 20 as the next opinion day as it returns after a four-week recess, amid the ongoing case regarding President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.
According to a Bloomberg report, the SCOTUS is also expected to issue opinions on February 24 and 25, in addition to those scheduled for February 20. Hearings in the Trump tariffs case were held in November 2025.
What Are Predicting Markets Indicating?
Data from popular prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show that bets regarding the Supreme Court’s potential decision are now worth over $9 million. While Kalshi volumes show bets worth more than $5 million, Polymarket bets had reached nearly $4.4 million at the time of writing.
Data from Kalshi shows that users think there is a 30% chance the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump's tariffs by 2028.
On Polymarket, bettors think there is a slightly lower chance of a positive ruling for the Trump administration, with 28% expecting a ruling in President Trump’s favor. Both the bets require an official announcement from the Supreme Court.
Trump Tariffs Draw Skepticism From Conservative Justices
At a November hearing, Trump's tariffs drew skepticism from conservative justices, with Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett questioning whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) authorized President Trump to impose emergency tariffs.
Chief Justice Roberts also said that Congress has the “core power” when it comes to tax regulation, while rejecting the Trump administration’s claim that tariffs are not taxes.
In January, President Trump stated that the U.S. would soon receive more than $600 billion in tariffs. He called the upcoming Supreme Court’s tariff decision “one of the most important ever” in the apex court’s history.
Meanwhile, U.S. equities gained in Friday’s midday trade. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was up by 0.68%, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) rose 0.88%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) gained 0.48%. Retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bearish’ territory.
Also See: CPI Report: Annual Inflation Rate Comes In At 2.4% In January, Below Wall Street Expectations
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