Tesla’s Market Share Dives In EV Stronghold California In 2025, Paving Way For Asian Rival’s Growth

• Tesla’s market share subsequently fell to 9.9%, marking a decline from the 11.6% market share recorded in 2024, placing it behind Asian brands Toyota and Honda.  
• While other EV makers, including Polestar and Rivian Automotive, also witnessed their registrations decline during the year, neither of them witnessed a market share dive as significant as Tesla.
• Japanese automaker Toyota’s namesake brand continued to reign as the best-selling brand across fuel types, with 322,068 registrations.

Tesla’s (TSLA) market share in electric vehicles (EV) stronghold California declined in 2025 while Japanese automaker Toyota Motor Corp (TM) clocked growth.

As per Experian data published by the California New Car Dealers Association, Tesla registrations in California fell to 179,656 last year, compared to the 202,865 registrations recorded the year before.

The EV giant’s market share subsequently fell to 9.9%, marking a decline from the 11.6% market share recorded in 2024, placing it behind Asian brands Toyota and Honda.  

Other Winners And Losers

While other EV makers, including Polestar and Rivian Automotive, also witnessed their registrations decline during the year by 42% and 7.5%, respectively, neither of them witnessed a market share dive as significant as Tesla owing to their small sales numbers.

This is in line with an overall decline in EV registrations in California to 20.9% of the market, down from 22% in 2024, marking the first year-over-year decline in registrations since 2020.

EV startup Lucid, however, witnessed registrations jump 58.7% to  3,910 units, edging its market share up to 0.2%.

Japanese automaker Toyota’s namesake-brand continued to reign as the best-selling brand across fuel types, with 322,068 registrations, marking a growth of 11.6% and increasing its market share to 17.8%. Meanwhile, its luxury brand Lexus witnessed registrations rise 4.8% to 65,623 units.

California’s Auto Market

Overall, light vehicle registrations increased 3.3% from 2024 to 2025. However, the dealer association now sees registrations decline 1.5% in 2026 as vehicle transaction prices close in on $50,000, making a new vehicle out of budget for many.

“Additionally, tariffs will almost certainly lead to rising vehicle prices, the labor market is weakening, and household incomes are barely keeping pace with inflation,” the association said.

Tesla’s Global Sales Dip

Tesla’s registration dip in California is not unexpected. It echoes the company’s overall near 9% drop in global sales during 2025 owing to waning consumer demand, an aging vehicle lineup, increasing competition and loss of $7,500 federal tax credits on the purchase of new EVs in the U.S.

Despite the drop in market share, Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3 vehicles continued to feature among California’s best-selling vehicle choices. The Model Y was, in fact, the best-selling EV in the state during 2025.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA and LCID shares was ‘bullish’ at the time of writing, in contrast with Toyota and Rivian, for whom sentiment trended in the ‘neutral’ territory.

TSLA shares have gained 8% over the past 12 months while NYSE-listed shares of Toyota added 22%. 

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