TSCO Stock: Analysts Turn Cautious On Tractor Supply After Weak Q1 Print, But Retail Says ‘Oversold’

• Jefferies said valuation trends indicate growing investor skepticism about the company’s ability to recover from pockets of weakness.
• Truist also slashed its price target from $55 to $44 while keeping a ‘Hold’ rating.
• Tractor Supply’s Q1 revenue and EPS both missed Street estimates. 

Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) faced scrutiny from Wall Street analysts after fresh price-target revisions following its first-quarter earnings, highlighting both near-term growth concerns and longer-term resilience of its retail model.

The stock recorded its biggest intraday drop in nearly four years on Tuesday. The company’s Q1 sales increased 3.6% year-on-year (YoY) to $3.59 billion, with comparable sales rising 0.5% YoY. Earnings per share (EPS) were $0.31. 

Both revenue and EPS missed the analysts’ consensus estimate of $3.64 billion and $0.34, respectively, according to Fiscal AI data. 

Jefferies Cuts Price Target But Optimistic On TSCO’s Long-Term Growth 

Jefferies analyst Jonathan Matuszewski adjusted his outlook on the company, trimming the price target to $51 from $60 while reiterating a ‘Buy’ rating. 

The analyst pointed to the company’s historically stable comparable sales performance and its ability to correct operational soft spots quickly. However, he noted that recent market pricing suggests investors are increasingly doubtful about that recovery ability. 

However, Matuszewski still views the recent pullback and valuation compression as an “attractive buying opportunity” for long-term investors. The company’s last two quarters have shown signs of strain, yet Jefferies said management is actively working to reignite growth, particularly within its pet-focused offerings. 

Tractor Supply stock inched 0.1% higher overnight heading into Wednesday, after over a 11% decline in the previous session. 

Truist Flags Competitive Pressure Concerns

Truist also revised its expectations, lowering its price target to $44 from $55 while maintaining a ‘Hold’ rating. The firm noted that Q1 results came in below already reduced forecasts, with comparable-store sales rising just 50 basis points versus expectations of 2%. 

Weakness in the companion animal segment was a key drag, an area Truist sees as critical due to its role in driving customer traffic. The firm further cautioned that softness in pet-related demand may signal a “negative inflection” point for the business. 

Tractor Supply’s Q1 operating income decreased 6.3% YoY to $233.4 million. For 2026, the company reaffirmed its sales growth guidance between 4% and 6%.

What Are Retail Traders Saying? 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the stock rose to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bullish’ territory the previous day. 

Retail message saw a 3,000% surge over a period of 24 hours. 

A bullish user said, “just bought a small amount will start building a bigger position over time.” 

Another user said the stock is “oversold”. 

TSCO stock has declined by over 20% year-to-date. 

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