Gary Black Flags Waymo Is Leaving TSLA Behind On Autonomy Even As Tesla Beats Delivery Estimates In Q3

• Black noted that Tesla’s third quarter deliveries fell just 2% year-over-year despite the comparison with its record Q3 last year, when the $7,500 EV tax credit was nearing expiration.
• He said that the investor focus is now shifting to Tesla’s ability to scale unsupervised autonomy, an area where he says the company’s Full Self-Driving technology is “clearly superior” to competitors.
• Black added that Tesla’s scale-up has “fallen far short of management’s guidance,” pointing to previous targets for unsupervised autonomy without safety drivers in eight to 10 metro areas by the end of 2025.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) may be delivering stronger-than-expected vehicle numbers, but The Future Fund managing partner Gary Black says the bigger question is whether Elon Musk’s company can close the widening gap with Alphabet Inc.’s (GOOG, GOOGL) Waymo in autonomous driving.

In a post on X, Black pointed to Tesla’s recent delivery strength while highlighting a much tougher challenge ahead, which is scaling unsupervised autonomy fast enough to catch competitors already operating driverless vehicles across multiple U.S. markets.

Tesla shares closed nearly 5% higher on Friday, while Alphabet’s Class A shares gained nearly 2%.

Tesla’s Delivery Beats Keep Coming

Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter (Q3), beating the company-compiled analyst consensus of 461,974 and marking its second consecutive major delivery beat.

Black noted that Q3 deliveries fell just 2% year-over-year despite the comparison with Tesla’s record Q3 last year, when the $7,500 EV tax credit was nearing expiration.

That followed Tesla’s Q2 delivery blowout, when the company delivered roughly 480,000 vehicles against Wall Street expectations of about 406,000.

“That says it all,” Black said of Tesla’s latest delivery performance. But with demand showing signs of stabilization, Black argued that investors are increasingly looking beyond vehicle sales.

Black Says Tesla’s Autonomy Scale-Up Is Falling Short

Black said that the investor focus is now shifting to Tesla’s ability to scale unsupervised autonomy, an area where he says the company’s generalized Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is “clearly superior” to competitors. The problem, he argues, is execution.

Black said Tesla’s scale-up has “fallen far short of management’s guidance,” pointing to previous targets for unsupervised autonomy without safety drivers in eight to 10 metro areas by the end of 2025.

Tesla currently has unsupervised autonomy approved for use in six U.S. metros — Austin, Dallas and Houston in Texas, plus Miami, Orlando and Tampa in Florida.

The San Francisco Bay Area is next on deck, while Las Vegas has been approved for a permit but is not yet live.

Tesla’s current guidance calls for unsupervised autonomous miles to compound at more than 10% per week.

Waymo’s Driverless Lead Is The Problem

Black also compared Tesla’s robotaxi coverage with the service offered by Waymo.

He highlighted that Waymo has been authorized for public fully driverless rides in 15 U.S. metros, including Phoenix, the Bay Area, Los Angeles, San Diego, Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Atlanta, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Denver, Nashville and Las Vegas.

The company operates roughly 4,000-plus driverless vehicles nationwide, according to Black.

Tesla, meanwhile, had about 589 vehicles registered in Texas as fully autonomous as of Oct. 2, including 420 Model Ys and 169 Cybercabs, Black said, while adding that this makes autonomy the critical test for Tesla from here.

What Retail Investors Think About TSLA Stock

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around Tesla trended in the ‘bullish’ territory at the time of writing.

TSLA stock is down 18% year-to-date, while GOOGL stock is up 8%. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 17% over the past 12 months, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is up 24%.

Also See: Peter Schiff Warns ‘Mother Of All Bond Bear Markets’ Is Coming — ‘Something’s Going To Break’

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