TSLA Stock Cools Overnight After Miami Robotaxi Rally — But Morgan Stanley Sees 30,000-Vehicle Fleet By 2030

• Morgan Stanley kept an ‘Equalweight’ rating and $415 price target, implying a 1% downside from current levels.
• The brokerage said Tesla’s Miami robotaxi launch included unsupervised vehicles and could mark renewed rollout momentum.
• The firm forecasts that Tesla’s robotaxi fleet will reach 1,500 vehicles by year-end and 30,000 by 2030.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) jumped 7% on Monday after the EV maker said its robotaxi service was available in Miami, with Morgan Stanley pointing to a broader rollout that could help ease investor doubts about autonomy at scale.

TSLA shares slipped 1% in after-hours trading on Monday and extended the slide into the overnight session. 

TSLA Robotaxi Rollout Gains Momentum

On Monday, Morgan Stanley reiterated an ‘Equalweight’ rating and $415 price target on Tesla, implying a 1% downside from current levels. “Tesla launched robotaxi in Miami over the weekend,” Morgan Stanley said, noting that the Friday launch included unsupervised vehicles.

The brokerage noted that Miami had already been listed as a market where “preparations” were underway, alongside Phoenix, Orlando, Tampa and Las Vegas. “We expect Tesla to launch in all of these metro areas by year-end,” Morgan Stanley said.

Morgan Stanley expects Tesla’s supervised and unsupervised robotaxi fleet to reach 1,500 vehicles by year-end and 30,000 by 2030. The firm said robotaxis are unlikely to materially affect earnings this year, but rollout speed could matter more for sentiment.

“While the absolute number of robotaxis is likely immaterial to earnings this year, the rate of change in the rollout provides more clarity for investors who may be skeptical about Tesla’s autonomous technology at scale,” the brokerage added. Morgan Stanley said the update could be “well received” after signs of slower rollout momentum, though it cautioned that third-party fleet-tracker data is not validated by Tesla. The brokerage also noted sightings of presumed robotaxi test vehicles in New Orleans, though Tesla has not confirmed them.

Tesla Bulls Eye July 22 Earnings 

The robotaxi update followed Tesla’s stronger-than-expected Q2 delivery report. Tesla reported 480,126 global vehicle deliveries in Q2, up 25% from a year earlier. Energy deployments also rose 41%, extending momentum in a business that has become increasingly important as investors watch margins and auto demand. Gary Black of The Future Fund expects TSLA shares to rebound this week as analysts lift estimates after the beat. Still, he said Tesla remains “fully priced,” citing a 2026 P/E above 200x and a 6x PEG ratio.

Additionally, Morningstar raised its Tesla fair value estimate to $450 from $425 after the delivery report, while keeping the stock in ‘3-star territory.’ Tesla reports full second-quarter results on July 22. Investors will watch for updates on margins, robotaxi expansion, FSD, Cybercab, Semi production and the broader AI roadmap.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was ‘bullish’ amid a 742% jump in 24-hour message volumes.

One user said, “The market looked beyond vehicle deliveries over a decade ago lol, if that still mattered this is a $5-10 stock. The extra Trillion+ market cap is coming from the robotaxi business that is just ramping up. You priced this in ten years ago. Now Tesla has to deliver on a TAM that doesn't exist, and take 100% market share of that TAM”

Another user said, “Everyone is buying teslas wow. FSD, Oil prices resulting in massive deliveries. Apparently US aging population wants FSD due to anxiety and panic attacks while driving on roads with crazy drivers. Helps reduce stress. FSD is being subscribed at record pace. Massive growth ahead with Robots as well!! Love it. Nice dip buying”

So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's third-worst performer, down about 7%. 

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