TSLA Stock Slips Overnight: Gene Munster Sees Over 50% Odds Of Tesla-SpaceX AI Powerhouse Merger

• SpaceX could reportedly begin its IPO process within days at a valuation above $2 trillion.
• Gene Munster said there is a “greater than 50%” chance of a Tesla-SpaceX merger within five years.
• Munster said Tesla’s next major breakout could depend on Robotaxi scale, physical AI adoption and Optimus execution, with a potential path toward $600 by 2027.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) slipped more than 1% in overnight trading heading into Monday as fresh SpaceX IPO developments reignited investor speculation around a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger after veteran tech investor Gene Munster said that the odds of a deal were greater than 50%. 

TSLA stock snapped a two-week winning streak last week, ending the week down more than 1%. 

SpaceX IPO Buzz Draws Investor Attention

Speculation around SpaceX’s long-awaited market debut accelerated after fresh reports emerged that the company could begin its public listing process within days, potentially setting up a June Nasdaq debut under the ticker “SPCX.”

The offering is expected to target a valuation above $2 trillion and could raise as much as $75 billion, putting it on track to become the largest IPO ever. Investor excitement increased further after SpaceX reportedly completed a 5-for-1 stock split ahead of the listing, lowering the implied share price to $105 from over $500. Musk also added to the momentum over the weekend after publicly saying he has no plans to sell any SpaceX shares after the IPO.

Wall Street interest around the deal has continued to build as large institutions position for the offering. BlackRock has reportedly explored investing between $5 billion and $10 billion into the IPO, while major investors including Fidelity, T. Rowe Price and Capital Group recently visited SpaceX’s Starbase and xAI facilities.

Tesla-SpaceX Merger Odds Rise

Munster said in an interview with Tesla influencer Dillon Loomis on Sunday that he believes there is a “greater than 50%” chance that some form of Tesla-SpaceX merger happens within the next five years. “My sense is that the investment thesis around SpaceX is going to become a sovereign AI company,” Munster said.

He called sovereign AI as controlling the full stack from energy to chip design, chip manufacturing, distribution through Starlink and the underlying models with Grok. Munster said that such a platform still lacks one critical element: physical AI.

“I believe AI is at the highest, his highest level of importance,” Munster said. “I think that he does see this as an existential risk to humanity and also sees the opportunity around AI as being bigger than kind of all these sum of the parts.” While discussing the scale of a potential Tesla-SpaceX platform, Munster noted that Tesla currently carries a market value of $1.5 trillion, while SpaceX is rumored to be worth $1.7 trillion ahead of its expected IPO.

“If you truly build that, my sense is it would be probably the most valuable company in the world,” Munster said. He also backed the merger idea. “I’m definitely rooting for it because I think what they’re trying to accomplish would be accelerated if they all come together,” he said.

Munster added that employees across Musk’s companies already frequently work across organizations and often broadly refer to “working for Elon,” suggesting that the businesses function as parts of a wider interconnected ecosystem. “When you start to vertically integrate, it’s pretty clear that you can accelerate adoption,” Munster added.

Tesla’s $600 AI Bull Case

Munster said the next major breakout for Tesla would likely depend on visible scaling across Robotaxi deployments and physical AI products rather than traditional automotive metrics alone. He also said Tesla could eventually trade toward the $600 level by the end of 2027 if the company successfully executes on Robotaxi, autonomy and Optimus adoption.

According to Munster, one of the biggest potential re-rating moments for the stock could come once Tesla crosses roughly 5,000 operational Robotaxis, which he said may become an important psychological and commercial validation milestone for investors.

Munster also said Optimus is still a “science project” at the current stage, but said the humanoid robot platform could eventually become larger than Tesla’s core automotive business if physical AI adoption accelerates over time.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA And SPACEX?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was ‘bullish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume, while sentiment around SpaceX turned ‘extremely bullish’ alongside ‘extremely high’ chatter.

One user said, “After all space X ipo is a 100% negative event for the fragile market !   It should mark the top and sell off might even start before June IPO, sell in May, go away !”

Another user said, “SpaceX is going to drop the $TSLA stock so much till it IPOs. Retail investors will jump ship.”

So far this year, TSLA stock has lagged several of its “Magnificent Seven” peers, making it the group’s third-worst performer, with a 6% decline.    

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