TSLA Stock Looks ‘Slightly Undervalued’ To This Analyst — But The Roadster Is Barely Part Of The Bull Case

• Tesla teased an Oct.1 Roadster reveal featuring possible Cyber-inspired styling and a SpaceX thruster package.
• The Roadster has faced at least eight delays since its 2017 unveiling, with production potentially not beginning until 2027 or 2028.
• Morningstar’s valuation rests mainly on Tesla’s AI, robotaxi and humanoid-robot ambitions, not the Roadster.

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) appear “slightly undervalued,” according to Morningstar, though the firm’s $450 valuation rests far more on AI and autonomy than on the long-delayed Roadster.

TSLA stock slipped 0.3% last week, snapping two consecutive weeks of gains. However, shares are up nearly 1% overnight late Sunday. 

Morningstar Sees Limited Roadster Sales 

Morningstar called the Roadster Tesla’s new “halo car,” a high-performance luxury vehicle intended to showcase the automaker’s best engineering and tech. The vehicle will fill the flagship role previously held by the Model S and Model X, which Tesla discontinued earlier this year to make room for humanoid-robot production. The brokerage’s fair-value estimate implies a 24% upside from current levels. 

However, Morningstar expects the Roadster to remain a niche product, forecasting annual sales of only around 2,000 vehicles. By comparison, the firm expects Tesla’s companywide deliveries to reach nearly 1.8 million in 2026 and around 2.8 million annually by 2030.  The firm’s valuation already assumed the Roadster would enter production. 

Tesla Teases Cyber-Style Roadster 

Tesla announced the event recently with a “Go for launch” teaser showing a red Roadster under launch-pad-style lighting, with “10.01” displayed across the image. A countdown on Tesla’s Roadster webpage also points to the same date.  

The teaser suggests that the production vehicle could adopt design elements from the Cybertruck and Cybercab, including a full-width light bar. The main attraction is expected to be the SpaceX package, which uses cold-gas thrusters for short bursts of acceleration. Musk has said earlier that the Roadster could reach 60 mph in under two seconds without the system and under one second with it.

He has also called the vehicle a “flying car,” although the recent post shows that it has been scaled back to a brief hover. Musk previously called the sub-one-second acceleration target “the least interesting part” of the Roadster.

Tesla Customers Await Long-Delayed Roadster 

Tesla unveiled the second-generation Roadster in November 2017 and originally promised production in 2020. The company advertised 620 miles of range, acceleration from zero to 60 mph in 1.9 seconds, a top speed above 250 mph and seating for four. The standard model carried a proposed $200,000 price, while the $250,000 Founders Series sold out.

Production never began. Tesla has pushed back the Roadster’s timeline at least eight times, moving it through 2022, 2023, 2024 and eventually 2025-2026. Musk later suggested production might not start until 2027 or 2028.

Several proposed demonstration dates also passed without an event. Customers who placed deposits as high as $250,000 have now waited nearly nine years, while prominent reservation holders including Marques Brownlee and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have said they canceled.

Morningstar Bets On Tesla AI 

Morningstar’s valuation depends on Tesla successfully transitioning from mainly selling vehicles and batteries to developing real-world AI products. The firm said Tesla’s investments in autonomous driving and humanoid robots are “necessary” for the transformation, even though the heavy spending could contribute to negative free cash flow in the near term.

Morningstar expects autonomous vehicles from Tesla and Alphabet’s Waymo to account for 50% of ride-hailing trips in the U.S. and Canada by 2030. Over time, it believes Tesla could become one of North America’s largest ride-hailing providers.

The brokerage also sees opportunities across autonomous-driving subscriptions, energy storage, insurance, and Tesla’s global fast-charging network. Its bull case argues that Tesla could “disrupt multiple industries” through electric vehicles, autonomous driving, batteries and humanoid robots.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA slipped further to ‘extremely bearish’ from ‘bearish’ a week ago, amid a 31% decline in message volume over the same period.

One bullish user said, “$TSLA roadster launch. Last chance to get into Tesla below 400. Q3 deliveries skyrocketing. Cybercab. Tesla humanoids”

Another user said, “$TSLA Monday huge gap up on this to 399-403 by EOW.”

So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's worst performer, down 19%. 

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