Waymo Leads On Cities, But Tesla Wins On Manufacturing Muscle, Ark Invest Says

• Keeney noted that though Waymo currently operates in more cities in the U.S. than Tesla, they are limited by the number of robotaxis they have on road. 
• Tesla, in comparison, can produce thousands of cars in a single day and produced half a million vehicles in the third quarter, Keeney noted.
• Waymo is actively eyeing expansion into more cities in 2026.

Ark Invest’s Director of Investment Analysis Tasha Keeney believes that Tesla will overtake Waymo in the autonomous driving race despite the former entering the field later than the Alphabet-owned unit, thanks to its manufacturing prowess.

Keeney noted in a video that though Waymo currently operates in more cities in the U.S. and is looking to scale further by the end of next year, they are limited by the number of robotaxis they have on road.

Tesla Vs. Waymo In Manufacturing

Keeney assumes that Waymo currently has “single digit 1000s of vehicles on the road,” roughly around 3,000 units. Waymo mostly deploys Jaguar i-PACE vehicles as robotaxis in its fleet.

Tesla, in comparison, can produce thousands of cars in a single day and produced a half a million vehicles in the third quarter, Keeney noted.

“So Waymo is really paving the way for the regulatory barriers and Tesla, while they may come second in a city, we think that they have a key advantage in terms of actually scaling the fleet,” Keeney said. Scaling the fleet will improve the underlying economics and cost per mile, eventually undercutting current ride hail prices, Keeney said in the video shared by Tesla CEO Elon Musk on X. 

Tesla’s Advent Into The Waymo Dominated Sector

Tesla started deploying robotaxis with a small fleet of Model Y vehicles equipped with its full self driving technology in Austin in late June. The vehicles were initially deployed with a safety monitor in the front seat to take over as required.

However, earlier this month, Musk said that the company has started testing fully autonomous driving in Texas with no safety drivers, highlighting that it's fast catching up to Waymo who already operates autonomous rides across cities.

Musk also said on Wednesday that a Tesla car with no safety monitor took him around Austin on Sunday with “perfect driving.”

According to Morgan Stanley’s estimates, Tesla is likely operating 200 robotaxis in the U.S., and the number is expected to grow exponentially to 1,000 by 2026.

Despite the lower-than-Waymo number of vehicles in its fleet, Musk considers the company’s AI software the “best-of-breed”. Earlier this week, Musk countered a statement from Tesla’s erstwhile AI Director, Andrej Karpathy, who said both Waymo’s and Tesla’s appear to offer the “perfect drive.”  Musk dismissed Karpathy’s understanding as “dated” in a post on X.

Waymo’s Expansion Efforts

Waymo currently offers public robotaxi services in Austin, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco. The company is also looking to start offering autonomous ride-hailing services in Miami, Dallas, Houston, Orlando and San Antonio. 

Waymo’s ambitions are not limited to the U.S. In October, the company said that it is expanding to London, with plans to offer rides starting in 2026. The company is also training its vehicles in Tokyo, Japan.

In October, Alphabet chief business officer Philipp Schindler said on the company’s earnings call that Waymo’s growth and momentum are strong. “2026 is shaping up to be an exciting year,” they said.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around GOOG stock stayed within the ‘bearish’ territory while sentiment around TSLA stayed ‘neutral.

While GOOG stock has gained 66% this year, TSLA has added 20%. 

Also See: Elon Musk Dismisses Ideas Of SpaceX-Echostar Merger In Road To Going Public: ‘No Reason To Cut Corners’

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