Why Is NU Stock Plunging Nearly 12% Overnight?

• Markets had been bracing for a Bolsonaro victory. 
• Brazilian stocks declined following the results. 
• Lula’s unexpected fourth-term victory has stoked concerns about political and economic uncertainty, as well as implications for the country’s interest rates and currency. 

Shares of Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) plummeted more than 12% in the overnight session late Sunday amid a broader selloff in Brazilian stocks after Leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva defeated right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a surprising turn of events. 

Markets had been bracing for a Bolsonaro victory, with the right-winger exceeding expectations in the first round of Brazil's presidential election on Oct. 4. 

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The iShares MSCI Brazil fund (EWZ) also plunged more than 18% at the time of writing, and the country’s largest oil company Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) was down about 11%. 

What Does Lula’s Victory Mean For Brazilian Markets?

Lula won 51.8% of votes in the latest elections, compared to Bolsonaro’s 48.2%, according to the Superior Electoral Court.

A Bolsonaro victory was expected to usher in a more market-friendly administration, as Brazil has grappled with persistent fiscal deficits, rising public debt, and inflation in recent years. 

Lula’s unexpected fourth-term victory has stoked concerns about political and economic uncertainty, as well as implications for the country’s interest rates and currency. 

Guilherme Abbud, CEO of Persevera Asset Management, reportedly told Bloomberg that Brazilian markets are poised to react sharply at the open on Monday, and the Brazilian real will likely weaken by at least 7%. 

“It would probably be a mirror image of what happened after the first round, which was also a huge surprise. It could be somewhat worse because moves to the downside tend to involve more panic and emotionally driven stop-losses,” Abbud reportedly said.

Retail Stance On NU, PBR

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around NU stock was ‘bearish’ at the time of writing, with message volume up 300% over 24 hours, according to platform data. 

However, one user said, “$NU this gap down open is the buy back opportunity been waiting for.”

Sentiment on PBR stock flipped from ‘bearish’ to ‘bullish’ over 24 hours despite the selloff and electoral pressures. 

One user said, “Mass panic as the stock falls.  Oil is still $110.  It costs PBR $5 to extract oil.”

NU stock is down nearly 12% in 2026, while PBR stock has rallied more than 119% in the same time due to rising oil prices. 

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