BTC

Bitcoin

As 2025 came to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) ended on a negative note, trading more than 30% below its all-time highs and grappling with the formation of a death cross—a technical indicator that traditionally precedes significant price corrections. Currently hovering just above $89,200, Bitcoin recently saw its 10-week and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs) cross paths on December 8, a development highlighted by market analyst Ali Martinez on social media site X (previously Twitter). Bitcoin May Face 50%-60% Correction Martinez emphasized the importance of watching the behavior of these two moving averages on the weekly chart. Historically, each time Bitcoin has registered a death cross between the 10-week and 50-week SMAs, it has been followed by substantial corrections. Related Reading: Dogecoin Long-Term Bullish Structure Still In Play And Will Cross $10 As seen in the cryptocurrency’s weekly chart below, past occurrences of such crossovers have led to price declines of 67% in September 2014, 54% in June 2018, 53% in March 2020, and 64% in January 2022. With the recent death cross-forming, Martinez suggests that if history is any guide, Bitcoin could face a correction between 50% and 60%, which would place its price anywhere between $50,000 and $38,000. Adding another layer of complexity to the analysis, market expert Mags has outlined two potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s near future. Two Scenarios For BTC’s Future Following Bitcoin’s downturn since its October highs above $126,000, it has been trading around the $85,000 mark for several weeks. Coinciding with this, Tether’s USDT dominance has broken out of its previous range, currently maintaining levels above the breakout zone. Since Bitcoin and USDT dominance exhibit an inverse correlation, Mags has identified two main scenarios moving forward. The first, a bullish scenario, hinges on the idea that if USDT dominance begins to decline, the current breakout could turn out to be a fakeout. Mags asserts that such a move could potentially ignite another expansion in Bitcoin’s price, possibly even leading to a new all-time high before any significant distribution occurs. Related Reading: Here’s How Much The XRP Price Will Be If It Overtakes Ethereum In Market Cap Conversely, Mags outlined a second scenario indicating early signs of a bearish structure. If the broader market trend weakens, Bitcoin might experience a temporary bounce, while USDT dominance forms a higher low near its mid-range before trending back upwards. In this case, BTC would exhibit a slow distribution pattern, marking neither a crash nor a rapid decline, but rather a gradual, choppy downward movement characteristic of initial bearish market behavior. The next move in USDT dominance is poised to play a crucial role in determining whether the current market represents a mere pause before further price continuation or the onset of an extended distribution phase leading up to a new all-time high. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

A surge in major altcoins has dented Bitcoin's dominance, which is on the verge of dropping to 59%?

BTC finished the week up 1.6%, while L2s, RWAs and the treasury trade continued to grind lower

As long as XRP continues to hold above the $1.74 Fibonacci support, the probability of a short-term bounce remains elevated.

Summary While I remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term growth story, I argue that the coin is already trending toward $30,000 in the near term. BTC could sell off immediately after the January FOMC meeting, or even sooner. By comparing BTC to changes in factors that influence real yield trajectories, I assert that BTC’s latest rally has been running on borrowed time since September. Regulatory optimism and one-off positive events may support BTC in the short run, but they are unlikely to alter the broader trajectory. This article concludes a three-part BTC series examining dominance trends, money supply dynamics, and real yields—all of which collectively, and independently, point towards a BTC bear phase. Recently, Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management increased exposure to Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ), which could be seen as an indication that the coin may rally further. While I believe in BTC’s long-term growth prospects, in line with Ms. Wood's target of $650,000 to $1.5M by 2030 , I don’t believe her recent BTC and related portfolio additions were to benefit from a short-term rally because my analysis of dominance numbers and money supply in previous articles indicated otherwise. Below is a summary of those two articles, which you may skip and move to the next section if you’ve been following my work. On December 18, 2025, my article titled “ Exit 200%+ Yield MSTY - And Don't Look Back ” argued that dominance numbers are signaling a crypto risk-off sentiment. Precisely, the dominance of BTC hasn’t changed since early November, whereas the dominance of altcoins has diminished. In that timeframe, though, stablecoin's dominance has shot up, indicating that many investors now prefer holding cash over crypto. Then, my article titled “ IBIT: The Risk Of Bitcoin's Decline To $30K ,” published on December 22, 2025, established that there’s a strong correlation between expected money supply changes and BTC. I advocated that the Fed may not embark on any meaningful quantitative easing in the coming years. In the absence of such M2 tailwinds, investors will likely rotate out of crypto. More Evidence In my view, those two articles should’ve been enough for readers to reconsider their BTC positions, especially if their entry price was more than $30,000—my price target. Even still, I’ll provide further evidence to support my assertion that BTC is headed south. To that end, please consider the chart below, which plots BTC prices against changes in real yields (referred to as RYC going forward). BTC-USD vs. 10-Year TIPS YoY % Change (Weekly, Sep 2014 – Dec 2025) (Author's Work - Data from Yahoo and FRED) From a surface-level view, the inverse relationship between BTC and RYC is quite evident: when RYC falls, BTC rallies, and vice versa. Also, BTC rallies usually lag RYCs. That inverse relationship exists because BTC is a non-yielding asset, and when yields are expected to rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets goes up, diminishing their attractiveness. The pertinent question then is: what drives RYC? Below is a quick rundown of every RYC directional pivot since the pandemic: RYC collapsed at the start of the pandemic due to the Fed’s zero rates and QE-until-necessary policies in response to the looming threat of a severe pandemic-induced recession and deflation. RYC started accelerating in early 2021, driven by rate hike expectations, which in turn were driven by inflation and growth expectations that had risen based on the possibility of vaccine rollouts. Inflation peaked in mid-2022, indicating that the Fed was approaching terminal rates. An expectation that gained further credence when the yield curve inverted in October 2022 , raising fears of an imminent recession. Consequently, RYC commenced a downward leg at the end of 2022, even though the Fed continued to hike rates until July 2023, because changes in both inflation and GDP trended downward. Inflation reached a point of stabilization at the start of 2024, when it fell to ~2.6%, quite close to the Fed's target—an event coupled with a flattening of the GDP change curve as well. But GDP had softened more than anticipated, raising fears and expectations of a weak economy, causing RYC to dive deeper. To manage that adverse situation, the Fed cut rates by 50 bps on September 18, 2024, and then delivered two more cuts in the same year. RYC changed direction in October 2024—when the market ascertained that the economy would be stable and GDP growth would normalize after the Fed's actions. Finally, RYC pivoted downward slightly at the end of 2024 when market participants believed the economy had digested the stimulatory effects of rate cuts. With all that information presented in this section, it is safe to assert that changes in expectations of long-term inflation and growth are among the primary drivers of RYC trajectories and thus, BTC cycles. Important Nuance Note that I have used the words “RYC trajectories” and “expectations of long-term inflation and growth” intentionally because trajectories and expectations are what matter, rather than singular events. If this nuance isn’t taken into consideration, investors may enter or exit positions at inopportune times. One such inopportune time was when rates were cut in October 2025, leading to only a slight drop in RYC but a big drawdown in BTC ($110,000 to roughly $85,000), i.e., the inverse relation between the two didn’t hold. That decoupling occurred because there were no changes in expectations of inflation and/or growth. Plus, Powell said that another rate cut in December is not a “foregone conclusion,” indicating a possible end to the rate cut cycle of 2025 and a stable economy going forward. In fact, it can be said that BTC’s long-haul price rally has been living on borrowed time since the September FOMC meeting, when Powell mentioned that cuts going forward would be more of a risk management initiative because the summary of economic projections hasn’t changed much (reference: Quote 1 in the appendix). Fed’s Path Forward Historically, the Fed has implemented insurance cuts multiple times, totaling 75 bps in all cases. (Source for rate cuts history: Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2026 ). In 2019, to manage the adverse effects of a possible trade war between the U.S. and China. In 2002, to further stimulate anemic economic recovery following the Dot-Com crisis. In 1998, to manage risks arising from the Asian Currency Crisis and the collapse of LTCM. In 1995, to stimulate a stagnant and weaker-than-expected labor market. Rates have already been cut by 75 bps since September 2025, which is why it's reasonable to assume that the Fed Funds rate won't change for the foreseeable future. An assertion further supported by the Fed’s latest economic projections , indicating a 2.4% PCE inflation, a GDP growth rate of 2.3%, and a Fed Funds rate of 3.4% for 2026. Moreover, Powell's statements from the October and December FOMC press conferences clearly indicate that if it weren’t for tariffs, inflation would be very close to the Fed’s target of 2% (reference: Quotes 2 and 3 in the appendix). Finally, he has said many times, and something I discussed in an article here , that tariff-induced inflation is a one-off event whose detrimental effects diminish over time. In summary, inflation is projected to subside in the coming months, GDP is projected to grow, and the Fed has delivered most of its rate cuts. Thus, RYC won’t experience any dramatic trajectory changes. Conclusion In my article on the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ) referenced/linked earlier, I stated that BTC will bottom between $30,000 and $20,000. To reach that level, however, it’ll experience multiple dramatic drawdowns. As mentioned before, I believe that BTC’s last strong sell-off, which caused it to drop from around $110,000 to roughly $85,000 within weeks, occurred because of normalization of growth and inflation, even though a rate cut was delivered. Therefore, I expect another drawdown, causing BTC to drop to its next resistance level of around $60,000, to occur after the next Fed meeting when an end to the current rate-cut cycle is officially announced—eliminating any doubts about the economy deteriorating further. Could the drop happen earlier? Yes, it depends on the payroll numbers and is quite tricky to understand. In my opinion, market participants, as of now, are quite convinced that there won't be any further rate cuts. But there's also some lingering doubt left along the lines of “What if things get worse in the labor market?” If, however, payroll numbers for December were to present a positive surprise, those doubts would be decisively eliminated, along with doubts about the end of the rate cuts cycle. In such a scenario, BTC may crash before the next FOMC meeting. The primary risk to my thesis is what I’ve already stated in other articles: singular events, such as regulatory changes and institutional participation, serving as tailwinds for BTC. I’d, however, like to further qualify that assertion by adding that such changes may only lead to ephemeral BTC rallies because its long-haul use as an extreme inflation hedge would be irrelevant in the coming economic environment. Lastly, it goes without saying that this ‘strong sell’ recommendation is not only for BTC but also for ETFs derived from it, such as the ProShares Bitcoin ETF ( BITO ), Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ( FBTC ), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ( GBTC ), or corporations that are directly correlated to BTC prices, such as Strategy ( MSTR ). Appendix: Quotes From FOMC Press Conferences Quote 1: September press conference (pages 6 and 7): Yeah, I think you could think of this, in a way, as a risk-management cut, because if you look at the SEP, actually the projections for growth this year and next actually ticked up just a little bit and inflation and unemployment didn’t really move. So what’s different now? What’s different now is that you see a very different picture of the risks to the labor market. You’ve seen—you know, we were looking at 150,000 jobs a month at the time of the last meeting, and now we see the revisions and we see the new numbers. And I didn’t—I don’t want to put too much emphasis on payroll job creation, but it’s just one of the things that suggests that the labor market is really cooling off. And that tells you that it’s time to take that into account in our, you know, in our policy. Quote 2: October press conference (page 11): One is that inflation away from tariffs is actually not so far from our 2 percent goal. We estimate—people have different estimates of what that is, but it might be five- or six-tenths, and so if it’s 2.8, then core PCE, not including tariffs, might be 2.3 or 2.4, in that range, something like that. Quote 3: December press conference (page 23): And I think the evidence is kind of growing that what's happening here is services inflation coming down and that's offset by increases in goods, and that goods inflation is entirely in sectors where there are tariffs. So that does build on the story. And, so far, it's only a story that this is -- that the goods inflation, which is really the source of the excess at this point, that that -- almost more than half the source of the excess inflation is goods -- is tariffs.

Bitcoin rose towards the upper bounds of its weekly trading range between $86,979.26 – $90,064 today, as subtle nods of risk-on sentiment returned across the market. Investors have begun aggressively buying the dip to start the new year, shaking off the stagnation that characterised the final weeks of December. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market cap regained its footing above the psychological $3 trillion mark, having rallied roughly 2% to $3.12 trillion at press time. Market sentiment showed signs of relief as well, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbing 8 points to 36. While this still sits in “Fear” territory, it marks a significant move out of the Extreme Fear doldrums that persisted throughout the holiday season. Altcoins were the biggest beneficiaries of this liquidity injection, with meme coins stealing the show throughout the day. Led by Pepe Coin (PEPE), which saw double-digit gains, the sector outperformed the broader market. Other major meme assets, including Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB), were also trading firmly in the green at the time of publication, fueled by a renewed appetite for high-beta plays. Why is Bitcoin price and crypto market up today? Bitcoin and the overall crypto market’s rally today has been driven by a combination of seasonal trends and a resurgence in global risk appetite. One of the clearest factors at play is the “January Effect,” as investors who closed out loss-heavy positions in December for tax purposes are now redeploying capital into the market. This new-year reset has historically sparked inflows, but it’s been especially pronounced this time given the steep end-of-year selloffs. Bitcoin price, for instance, had pulled back nearly 30% from its October peak of $126,000, and many viewed the $85,000 to $87,000 zone as a compelling long-term support range. Today’s move suggests those dip-buying efforts are now materializing with more conviction, aided by whale activity. On-chain data over the past two days has shown a notable uptick in large-holder accumulation, adding weight behind the bounce. At the same time, open interest in futures has risen more than 2%, topping $130 billion, which is a clear nod that leveraged traders are entering the market with bullish bets. This kind of futures-led growth alongside spot price movement tends to confirm underlying momentum. Beyond the crypto-native catalysts, global risk appetite has also returned. Equity futures for the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have pointed to a positive 2026 open, as traders begin to price in the possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts by March. The ongoing wave of IPOs and improving macro outlook have pulled traditional investors back into high-growth sectors, and crypto often sits high on that list when risk sentiment turns favorable. There’s also a structural tailwind from regulatory clarity that began to take shape late last year. With the GENIUS Act setting clearer guidelines for digital assets and stablecoin frameworks becoming more predictable, institutional participants have more confidence navigating the space. This is already playing out in spot ETF flows, where selling pressure in both Bitcoin and Ethereum has begun to subside. Even meme coins have helped drive sentiment, as traders rotate into riskier assets in search of higher short-term upside. The rally across tokens like PEPE, DOGE, and SHIB has added to the sense that capital is flowing more freely again. What’s next for Bitcoin price? For Bitcoin bulls, reclaiming the psychological support level at $90,000 would be a strong validation point that could open the door to further upside. Since mid-December, this zone has acted as a key ceiling, with each rally attempt falling short of a clean break. A decisive push above it could reset the narrative and give traders confidence to begin positioning for a potential return to six-figure territory in the months ahead. Per the 24-hour liquidation heatmap, Bitcoin’s latest rally has clearly forced a large wave of short liquidations, particularly clustered near the $88,000 to $90,000 range. See below: Bitcoin 24-hour liquidation heatmap. Source: Coinglass. The visual density in these upper bands, coupled with real-time data showing $271.65 million in total liquidations, of which $217.82 million were shorts, points to how this move has caught bearish traders off guard. Ethereum bore the brunt with $29.73 million in liquidations, followed by Bitcoin at $23.97 million, highlighting the scale of pain for leveraged shorts across majors. At the same time, the BTC liquidation heatmap suggests that if the price can close and hold above $90,000, there is a thin layer of resistance in the immediate range, with fewer liquidation clusters between $91,000 and $94,000. This opens a clean short-term path for bulls to test higher territory, particularly if spot bids continue to rise and ETF inflows stabilise. On the downside, the chart shows a heavy liquidation build-up just below $88,000, followed by more intense bands near $86,000 and $84,500. This area is also where a new CME futures gap has emerged between roughly $87,800 and $88,000, a zone many traders are now watching closely as a potential downside magnet. CME gaps have a long track record of attracting price action, and with the rally unfolding into the weekend, some expect Bitcoin to drift back toward this region before attempting any sustained move higher next week. Market participants have already flagged this risk, noting that weekend trading conditions often produce choppier price action and additional gaps that can complicate early-week structure. “Good one to keep an eye on in the week ahead,” trading account Daan Crypto Trades wrote on X, adding that with the market heading into the weekend, traders could see a few gaps and a messier chart to start the year. If Bitcoin does revisit the $88,000 area, the dense liquidation clusters below could provide short-term support as shorts are forced to cover and dip buyers step in once again. A deeper pullback toward $86,000 or even $84,500 would likely test broader market conviction, but those zones also align with strong liquidation liquidity that could help cushion downside moves. For now, the near-term outlook hinges on whether bulls can maintain pressure above $90,000. At press time, Bitcoin price was trading at $89,598, holding on to gains of roughly 2% on the day. Top altcoin gainers for the day The altcoin market cap rose 3% to nearly $1.36 trillion earlier in the day before settling at $1.34 trillion at press time. Ethereum (ETH), the leading altcoin by market cap, rose 3.3% over the day, recovering back above $3,000, and was perched at $3,075 when writing. Other large-cap altcoins such as BNB (BNB), XRP (XRP), and Solana (SOL) saw similar gains between 2-3% respectively. Nearly all of the top 100 altcoins in terms of market capitalization were in the green. Sector-wise, the meme coin market saw some of the leading gainers of the day as the total tally of all combined went up 12% over the past 24 hours. Among them were Pepe (PEPE), outpacing the rest with gains of 32%, largely boosted by improved community sentiment after a well-followed trader who previously predicted the memecoin move to billions when it was trading at $600k, made a fresh prediction that it would go up by as much as $69 billion by the end of this year. As Pepe rallied, momentum quickly spilled over into other speculative assets, which are often backed by large cult-like followings that tend to eat into the hype. Floki (FLOKI) and SPX6900 (SPX) caught the slipstream of Pepe’s rally to post gains of over 17%, respectively. Other leading memecoins were also hovering in the green at press time. Source: CoinMarketCap The post Bitcoin price attacks $90K as January dip buying sparks meme coin rally led by PEPE appeared first on Invezz

Bitcoin (BTC) ended 2025 in the red , trading below $90,000 after months of consistent decline. However, despite its poor performance in Q4 last year, a crypto analyst has projected four new upside targets for BTC in 2026. The analyst has highlighted an emerging technical pattern and key resistance levels that traders and investors should closely monitor. Bitcoin Expected To Revisit $90,000 Levels In 2026 Market technician Jonathan Carter has shared four new price targets for Bitcoin this year, taking on a bullish stance despite the broader market downtrend and ongoing volatility. The analyst first highlighted a technical structure on BTC’s 8-hour chart that suggests a major price move is coming. Related Reading: People Are Not Ready For Bitcoin; Analyst Reveals What’s Coming Next According to his chart analysis, Bitcoin has been forming a symmetrical triangle since December last year and is now approaching a critical decision point as the pattern nears its apex. Notably, this triangle structure has often preceded aggressive directional moves, suggesting that the market may be gearing up for bullish turnover . For his first bullish target, the analyst expects Bitcoin to surge to $94,000, viewing this area as an initial reaction level following a complete breakout above the $80,000 region. Notably, the chart shows that the $94,000 target was a previous consolidation and minor rejection point during earlier market phases. A move into this area would signal that buyers are successfully pushing prices beyond short-term resistance. Closely following that level is the $97,500 target. The chart indicates that this region previously acted as a pivot where the price struggled to maintain momentum. If Bitcoin holds above $97,000, it could also indicate strengthening bullish control and increase the probability of continuation. Carter’s chart shows that both buyers and sellers have been active , but neither side has maintained dominance, resulting in narrower price swings. This balance suggests that the market is consolidating and may be waiting for a trigger to resolve the structure. Although BTC continues to trade around $88,000, Carter believes the cryptocurrency’s broader structure favors an upside continuation. However, he notes that a confirmation is required before the market can break out and recover from the downtrend. Analyst Sets BTC’s Next Two Targets Above $100,000 For his final two targets, Carter has forecasted a move above the $100,000 psychological level . If Bitcoin successfully clears the triangle resistance, the next major objective is the $100,500 level. Beyond that, the analyst has forecasted a final upside target of around $106,000, representing a roughly 19% surge from current levels. Carter has also marked $106,000 as a sell zone , suggesting that a move into this region would likely attract profit taking , but reaching it would confirm a strong bullish expansion from the triangle pattern. Notably, a clearly marked support zone sits near the lower boundary of the triangle around the $80,000 range. This area has been tested multiple times and continues to hold, reinforcing the validity of Bitcoin’s structure.

Bitcoin could be getting ready for a rally toward $94,500, but higher levels are expected to attract selling by the bears.

Michael Saylor has long noted that Bitcoin’s volatility “is a feature, not a bug” when pitching his cryptocurrency accumulator Strategy Inc.