EXE Expand Energy Corp. - Ordinary Shares - New

$EXE Weakness looks more like financing/positioning noise than due to the $500M note deal. The irony is debt issuance is tied to the Twin Eagle transaction, and the acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive, contribute more than $200 million of annual EBITDA initially, and rise to roughly $350 million after synergies. Expand also raised its marketing/commercial free-cash-flow target to $750 million annually because of Twin Eagle. Twin Eagle deal is supposed to close in the next couple of weeks. Twin Eagle actually reduces one weakness in the old EXE story: being too dependent on gas production and taking whatever price the market gives them. The combined company gets more storage, transport, marketing reach and optimization capability. That should make earnings more durable across different gas environments. I’m adding on this weakness.

$EXE EXE is up about 4.22 percent today, near 92.56, and I couldn't find a company specific headline for the move. For context, Mizuho kept its Outperform rating on Expand Energy last week, trimming the price target to 138 from 145. That's a small cut, and the new target sits well above where the stock trades. Expand is the largest US natural gas producer, with about 92 percent of its production in gas, so the stock tends to follow gas prices. I can't confirm gas was the driver today, so I'd check the futures before assuming it. The stock is also still well below its December highs above 120, so this looks like a bounce inside a down year. Follow me if you want more on the gas producers.

$EXE Forward strip for NG futures. While NG is largely weather dependent, LNG exports are running 18 bcf/d a 16% YOY increase and is projected to increase further in 2027. Gas burn power demand was flat YOY, but is expected to increase by 6% next summer. So there may be some structural shifts occurring that begin to put a floor under NG prices, which is bullish for EXE longer-term.

$EXE $EQT natural gas stocks keep acting bad, Exe making a new 52 weeks low...thats is not bulish

#NATGAS up almost 6% and every contract into 2028 are up today, meanwhile $EXE is red. This is classic market maker suppression of the tape, as seen here. The 88 ceiling is gone by Friday when these puts expire. The rubber band is being stretched.... Look at $EQT as they usually track over 100 days within .02% differential to $EXE up 2% on the day. more to come, great opportunity to load the boat at historical TL support. Just be patient with MM crap!

$EXE phantom wicks on this galore this AM. This was just after a phantom print at 107.02