FED The Federal Reserve

$FED $SPY $QQQ Fed futures market implies a steady hiking path through late 2027, with the terminal rate peaking around 4.78% in October 2027:

$FED $SPY More than 60 months fighting inflation but they still need "more" time to see "IF" higher rates are needed to slow inflation. The Feds are crooks...

$FED $SPY The Fed’s promise of 2% inflation target is unfathomable. Fed will likely raise 50bps in a single FOMC meeting sometime down the road.

$FED $SPY PPI up 1.3% MoM, most since March 2022. Fed better raise rates this month to get it over with. Inflation is not transitory.

$FED Interest rates = what the central bank sets. Bond yields = what the market demands. Both affect borrowing costs — but come from different sources. Although related, things which are different are not the same. Bond yields can rise even when interest rates stay flat, tightening financial conditions. Higher yields mean higher mortgage rates, higher corporate borrowing costs, and higher preferred share payouts. When people say “rates are rising,” they often mean bond yields, not central bank rates. And along with rising oil prices, there rising bond yields are what are weighing on the market right now.

$FED $SPY Fed expected to raise rates one more time before November mid-term elections. They should’ve just done 50bps in September.

$FED $SPY fixed income will have its reign and growth multiples will likely contract. AI spending is becoming much more expensive. Hiking rates for the first time in 3 years. I’m expecting an additional hike before the FED holds to bring inflation back down. Government debt has become very expensive and Trump has given his party a poor chance in the midterms. Crude trading over 100 a barrel will bring mid to long term pain into FY27 even if the Iran war ends next week.

The $Fed tightened the screws today, but $CL_F oil loosened the bolts. Together they provided a nice counterbalance — Rate Hike vs Oil Easing (Macro Tug‑of‑War) Rate hike today, for sure added tightening pressure on all of us and especially on rate‑sensitive sectors. But oil easing at the same time counterbalances that pressure. When crude backs off, inflation expectations cool, margin pressure eases, and the market doesn’t break… it wobbles.