FED The Federal Reserve

$FED $SPY When Fed raises rates, it’s causes p/e multiple compressions. That is what you are seeing in speculative names like the neoclouds. We predicted a 25bps rate hike in September before the odds shot up to a 90% chance. We now predict the Fed will hold rates steady in October as the Fed will only hike 3X. This is likely a 2016-2017 hiking cycle rather than a 2022 hiking cycle.

$FED $SPY $QQQ Fed futures market implies a steady hiking path through late 2027, with the terminal rate peaking around 4.78% in October 2027:

$FED $SPY Fed may end hikes in March as inflation moderates >looks like S&P path to 8000 is clear

$FED Interest rates = what the central bank sets. Bond yields = what the market demands. Both affect borrowing costs — but come from different sources. Although related, things which are different are not the same. Bond yields can rise even when interest rates stay flat, tightening financial conditions. Higher yields mean higher mortgage rates, higher corporate borrowing costs, and higher preferred share payouts. When people say “rates are rising,” they often mean bond yields, not central bank rates. And along with rising oil prices, there rising bond yields are what are weighing on the market right now.

$FED $SPY >FOMC paused rate hikes w/ a decision of 10-2 >Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for a rate increase >FOMC is now expected to raise rates in the December meeting.

$FED Reading between the lines on the next likely 'non-move With the macro chatter heating up ahead of the next FOMC meeting, everyone's obsessing over whether the central bank’s forward guidance is going to tilt hawkish or dovish. The Hawk Camp: If the Fed's guidance emphasizes persistent inflation risks and hints at keeping rates higher for longer, expect a tightening posture that could put pressure on equities and growth names. The Dove Camp: If the tone shifts to focus heavily on labor market softening or economic protection, signaling that rate cuts or a pause are coming down the pipeline, that looser guidance usually acts as a massive tailwind for risk assets. At the end of the day, the market often moves more on the tone of the guidance than the actual rate print itself. Are you positioned for a surprise pivot, or are you expecting them to stay strict? Drop your thoughts below!

$FED With both the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (FOMC) dropping interest rate updates and monetary policy guidance on the same day, tomorrow carries major macro risk. Depending on your strategy, certain markets experience extreme vulnerability to sudden whipsaws around rate decisions: 1. Short-Term Fixed Income & Bond MarketsWhy to hold off: Government bond yields (like Canadian Bonds and U.S. Treasuries) and short-term interest rate futures are on the absolute front line.The Risk: Markets are pricing in a potential BoC rate hike while expecting the Fed to pause. Any unexpected tone or "hawkish surprise" in either central bank's statement or the BoC's Monetary Policy Report will instantly trigger sharp, volatile re-pricings. 2. Interest-Rate Sensitive Equities (Utilities, REITs, and Canadian Banks)Why to hold off: Sectors heavily reliant on borrowing costs or structured around fixed-income proxies (such as Canadian bank stocks tracked via $XFN or real estate/utilities) react aggressively to shifts in the cost of capital.The Risk: If the Bank of Canada surprises with a rate hike or signals further tightening due to persistent inflation, rate-sensitive equities face immediate downside pressure as yield-seeking capital shifts. 3. Leveraged Products and Index Options (Day Trading)Why to hold off: Broad indexes like the TSX, S&P 500 (SPY), and Nasdaq (QQQ) often experience "head-fakes" right when rate decisions and press conferences hit the wire.The Risk: Implied volatility drops sharply after the announcements are out, which can crush the value of short-term options (both calls and puts) via an IV crush, even if the market moves in your anticipated direction. Question: Are you managing active positions in fixed income or equities that you're looking to protect before tomorrow morning?